| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Tufts University | Jumbos | 9–3 |
| 2 |  |
U. S. Coast Guard Academy | Bears | 8–4 |
| 3 |  |
Roger Williams University | Hawks | 7–5 |
| 4 |  |
Tulane University | Green Wave | 6–6 |
| 5 |  |
Yale University | Bulldogs | 6–6 |
| 6 |  |
Massachusetts Institute of Technology | Engineers | 4–8 |
| 7 |  |
Connecticut College | Camels | 2–5 |
| 8 |  |
Northeastern University | Huskies | 1–6 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 28,966 team race matches sailed before 2026-03-14, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 28 of 43 matches (65%) with a log-loss of 0.622 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.20 ± 0.38: a typical event, more orderly than 24% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | U. S. Coast Guard Academy | 9.29 | 10.62 | 8–4 | 4.5 | +1.33 | 3.4 | 3% |
| 8 | Northeastern University | 7.54 | 7.86 | 1–6 | 0.8 | +0.32 | 0.1 | 56% |
| 1 | Tufts University | 10.31 | 10.56 | 9–3 | 8.4 | +0.25 | 0.1 | 50% |
| 4 | Tulane University | 9.66 | 9.75 | 6–6 | 5.8 | +0.09 | 0.0 | 56% |
| 3 | Roger Williams University | 10.35 | 10.05 | 7–5 | 7.7 | −0.29 | 0.2 | 79% |
| 5 | Yale University | 10.02 | 9.64 | 6–6 | 7.0 | −0.39 | 0.3 | 83% |
| 7 | Connecticut College | 9.12 | 8.53 | 2–5 | 2.8 | −0.60 | 0.3 | 86% |
| 6 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology | 9.78 | 8.98 | 4–8 | 6.0 | −0.80 | 1.1 | 94% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Jumbos | Bears | Hawks | Wave | Bulldogs | Engineers | Camels | Huskies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tufts University Jumbos | 5–2 | ✕ | L | W | L | W | W | W | W |
| U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears | 6–1 | W | ✕ | W | W | L | W | W | W |
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 3–4 | L | L | ✕ | W | L | L | W | W |
| Tulane University Green Wave | 3–4 | W | L | L | ✕ | L | W | W | L |
| Yale University Bulldogs | 5–2 | L | W | W | W | ✕ | W | L | W |
| Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers | 3–4 | L | L | W | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Connecticut College Camels | 2–5 | L | L | L | L | W | L | ✕ | W |
| Northeastern University Huskies | 1–6 | L | L | L | W | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Jumbos | Bears | Hawks | Wave | Bulldogs | Engineers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tufts University Jumbos | 4–1 | ✕ | W | L | W | W | W |
| U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears | 2–3 | L | ✕ | L | W | L | W |
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 4–1 | W | W | ✕ | L | W | W |
| Tulane University Green Wave | 3–2 | L | L | W | ✕ | W | W |
| Yale University Bulldogs | 1–4 | L | W | L | L | ✕ | L |
| Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers | 1–4 | L | L | L | L | W | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Hawks | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Huskies | 2-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Engineers | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Green Wave | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Camels | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 1-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Engineers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Huskies | 1-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Bears | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Hawks | 1-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Jumbos | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 2-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Camels | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Engineers | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Huskies | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Hawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Green Wave | 3-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Camels | 3-4-5 |
| 13 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Green Wave | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Engineers | 2-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Huskies | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Hawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Camels | 3-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Bulldogs | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Green Wave | 1-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Bears | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Jumbos | 2-4-5 |
| 19 | |
Engineers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hawks | 3-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Camels | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Huskies | 3-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Jumbos | 3-4-5 |
| 22 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hawks | 3-4-5 |
| 23 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Huskies | 3-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Engineers | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Camels | 2-4-5 |
| 25 | |
Jumbos | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Hawks | 2-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Huskies | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Green Wave | 3-4-5 |
| 27 | |
Bulldogs | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Engineers | 1-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Bears | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Camels | 2-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Bulldogs | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Bears | 2-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Green Wave | 4-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Hawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Engineers | 3-4-6 |
| 32 | |
Jumbos | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Bears | 2-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Hawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-6 |
| 34 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Engineers | 3-4-6 |
| 35 | |
Hawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Jumbos | 4-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Green Wave | 3-4-5 |
| 37 | |
Engineers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Green Wave | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Hawks | 1-4-6 |
| 39 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-6 |
| 40 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Engineers | 3-4-5 |
| 41 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-6 |
| 42 | |
Hawks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bears | 1-5-6 |
| 43 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Engineers | 3-4-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
