Massachusetts Institute of Technology '27
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 43.22 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.095 rating points from 109 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →| Season | Team | Rating | Range | League percentile |
Team percentile |
On team | Races | Team page |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2026 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology | 2.23 | 67.04 | 28.12 | 12 of 16 | 14 | Team page | |
| Fall 2025 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology | 2.24 | 70.29 | 36.67 | 10 of 15 | 9 | Team page | |
| Fall 2024 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology | 2.68 | 77.71 | 46.88 | 9 of 16 | 55 | Team page | |
| Spring 2024 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology | 2.45 | 71.78 | 31.82 | 8 of 11 | 13 | Team page |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.76 (fleet 1.05) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 15–39 (28%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 3 | — | 3–23 |
| Spring 2025 | 3 | — | 12–16 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (52 matches) the record is 15–37 against 18.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−3.6). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | Jumbo Team Race | crew | 1.63 | -0.69 | 2–12 | 4.5 | −2.32 | 3.6 | >99% |
| 2026-03-22 | BC Team Race | crew | 1.87 | 0.92 | 1–9 | 1.9 | −0.96 | 0.6 | 92% |
| 2025-04-12 | Thompson Trophy Camel | crew | 3.00 | 2.84 | 3–9 | 3.3 | −0.16 | 0.0 | 71% |
| 2025-03-22 | 2025 Staake Trophy | crew | 2.83 | 5.83 | 9–0 | 7.9 | ≥+3.00 | 1.7 | 29% |
| 2025-03-08 | Camel Team Race | crew | 1.44 | -1.56 | 0–7 | 1.0 | ≤−3.00 | 1.5 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Harvard Invitational | Crew | C | 4 | 11.2 | +0.03 |
| BU Invite | Crew | A | 10 | 6.0 | +0.25 |
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern NE Team Race | Crew | TR | 12 | 33% | — |
| Jumbo Team Race | Crew | TR | 14 | 14% | — |
| BC Team Race | Crew | TR | 10 | 10% | — |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Crew | A | 5 | 7.4 | +0.02 |
| The Hood Trophy | Crew | B | 4 | 4.2 | +0.17 |
| BU Invite | Skipper | B | 3 | 11.0 | 0.78 |
| The 34th Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 7 | 12.9 | 0.52 |
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy Camel | Crew | TR | 18 | 39% | — |
| NEISA Open FR Champs/Coast Guard Alumni Bowl | Crew | B | 4 | 8.5 | -0.01 |
| Camel Team Race | Crew | TR | 8 | 0% | — |
| 2025 Staake Trophy | Crew | TR | 15 | 100% | — |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Terrier Invite | Crew | A | 6 | 3.5 | +0.10 |
| Oberg Trophy | Crew | B | 8 | 3.4 | +0.49 |
| Hood Trophy | Crew | B | 13 | 8.8 | -0.33 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy 2024 | Crew | C | 10 | 10.5 | -0.30 |
| Harvard Invitational | Crew | B | 8 | 13.4 | -0.17 |
| The George Warren Smith Trophy 24 | Crew | B | 10 | 10.4 | +0.07 |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Crew | A | 8 | 7.6 | -0.16 |
| Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Crew | B | 5 | 8.8 | +0.01 |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| The Harvard Invitational | Crew | A | 2 | 17.0 | -0.14 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Ade Larsen |  Rye Country Day School |
'23 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
