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Harvard Invitational

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 145
2 Boston College Boston College Eagles 166
3 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 213
4 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 244
5 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 248
6 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 352
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green B 5 1 2 3 1 3 1 7 23 Chase Decker '28
Phoebe Lee '26
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers C 1 10 5 2 2 8 2 1 31 William Kulas '28
Christine Keedy Brown '28
Boston College Boston College Eagles A 8 5 1 6 6 4 10 2 42 Nick Budington '25
Brooke Bergendahl '28
Boston College Boston College Eagles B 3 16 6 1 5 2 3 8 44 Ian Hopkins Guerra '26
Lanie Ferrarone '28
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green A 7 2 14 11 3 13 6 3 59 Bella Casaretto '26
Faye Benjamin '25
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears A 11 7 8 5 7 7 8 6 59 Benjamin Stevens '25
Hazel Johnson '27
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green C 6 4 10 13 11 10 4 5 63 Ben Sheppard '27
Vivian Heitkoetter '27
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos C 4 3 7 9 14 9 5 15 66 Wyatt Bischoff '27
Cindy Wang '25
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos A 2 13 4 4 10 14 11 10 68 Oliver Keeves '28
Reddin Kehrli '27
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears B 10 9 3 12 9 11 12 4 70 Shea Mcgrath '27
Maizie Bartlett '27
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos B 12 14 9 17 8 1 7 11 79 Gus Macaulay '27
Lucy Belknap '25
Boston College Boston College Eagles C 9 17 11 16 4 5 9 9 80 Ryan Mcgauley '27
Madeline Torrey '28
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson C 16 15 13 8 12 6 18 12 100 Margo Silliman '25
Katherine Shin '27
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers B 13 12 15 10 15 12 17 13 107 Conrad Straden '28
Ade Larsen '27
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers A 15 8 17 7 17 15 15 16 110 Lucas Escandon '26
Karya Basaraner '28
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears C 18 11 12 14 16 17 13 14 115 Cole Amaral '28
Ava Tobias '28
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson B 17 6 16 15 18 16 16 17 121 James Bergstrom '27
Julia Downey '27
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson A 14 18 18 18 13 18 14 18 131 Christina Chen '27
Sarra Guezguez '27
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (6 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Boston CollegeBoston College Eagles11223344
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears22334455
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green33445566
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson44556677
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers55667788
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos66778899

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Boston CollegeBoston College Eagles7788991010
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears889910101111
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green99101011111212
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson1010111112121313
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers1111121213131414
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos1212131314141515

Division C

Team1C2C3C4C5C6C7C8C
Boston CollegeBoston College Eagles1313141415151616
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears1414151516161717
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green1515161617171818
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson16161717181811
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers171718181122
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos1818112233

Conditions — 09/07/2024 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 62%  ·  Pressure 1010.1 hPa

Temperature

72°F
↑ 78°F   ↓ 60°F
Feels like 73°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.9 kn
avg  ·  max 7.0 kn
Gusts to 12.1 kn
From S (175°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine8.5 hrs Humidity62% Pressure1010.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Harvard: a favourites’ day (+0.08)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.08 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast +0.00
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.18 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Harvard by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (59 labelled days at Harvard).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →