Massachusetts Institute of Technology '26
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 11.95 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.107 rating points from 42 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →| Season | Team | Rating | Range | League percentile |
Team percentile |
On team | Races | Team page |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2024 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology | 1.69 | 57.23 | 9.38 | 15 of 16 | 18 | Team page | |
| Spring 2024 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology | 1.46 | 51.20 | 4.55 | 11 of 11 | 19 | Team page |
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singlehanded | 2.20 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 19 | Spring 2023 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.50 (fleet 2.16) | 276 of 328 | −0.06 ± 0.16 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 22–89 (20%) as crew 13–3 (81%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 2 | 3–21 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 6 | 6–43 | 13–3 |
| Spring 2024 | 2 | 13–25 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 10 graded regattas (126 matches) the record is 35–91 against 39.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−4.3). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 5 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 8 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | Jumbo Team Race | skipper | 1.86 | -0.46 | 2–12 | 4.5 | −2.32 | 3.6 | >99% |
| 2026-03-22 | BC Team Race | skipper | 1.87 | 0.92 | 1–9 | 1.9 | −0.96 | 0.6 | 92% |
| 2025-04-12 | Thompson Trophy Camel | crew | 3.11 | 3.76 | 4–2 | 3.4 | +0.65 | 0.3 | 45% |
| 2025-04-05 | Mystic Lake Team Race | skipper | 1.49 | 1.04 | 2–6 | 2.3 | −0.45 | 0.1 | 83% |
| 2025-03-29 | 2025 Marchiando Trophy-Red Regatta | skipper | 1.67 | 0.98 | 1–20 | 1.9 | −0.69 | 0.4 | 86% |
| 2025-03-22 | 2025 Staake Trophy | crew | 2.90 | 5.90 | 9–0 | 7.9 | ≥+3.00 | 1.7 | 29% |
| 2025-03-15 | Ivan Geiger Trophy 2025 | skipper | 1.66 | 1.39 | 3–11 | 3.7 | −0.27 | 0.1 | 75% |
| 2025-03-08 | Camel Team Race | skipper | 1.44 | -1.56 | 0–6 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.3 | >99% |
| 2024-04-06 | Mystic Lake Team Race | skipper | 1.43 | 1.14 | 4–17 | 4.9 | −0.28 | 0.2 | 77% |
| 2024-03-16 | Ivan Geiger Team Race | skipper | 0.94 | 1.26 | 9–8 | 8.0 | +0.33 | 0.2 | 39% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 10.2 | 2.48 |
| Jumbo Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 14% | — |
| Boston Dinghy Challenge Cup-2026 | Skipper | B | 10 | 9.0 | 1.87 |
| BC Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 10% | — |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 5 | 10.6 | 2.12 |
| The Hood Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 12.8 | 1.68 |
| The George Warren Smith Trophy 25 | Skipper | B | 7 | 7.3 | 2.58 |
| The 34th Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 7 | 12.3 | 1.71 |
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy Camel | Crew | TR | 18 | 39% | — |
| Mystic Lake Team Race | Skipper | TR | 8 | 25% | — |
| Ivan Geiger Trophy 2025 | Skipper | TR | 14 | 21% | — |
| George Morris Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.9 | 1.99 |
| Camel Team Race | Skipper | TR | 8 | 0% | — |
| 2025 Staake Trophy | Crew | TR | 15 | 100% | — |
| 2025 Marchiando Trophy-Red Regatta | Skipper | TR | 21 | 5% | — |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Terrier Invite | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.7 | 2.89 |
| Savin Hill Invite | Crew | A | 5 | 9.2 | -0.49 |
| Hood Trophy | Crew | A | 13 | 11.1 | -0.37 |
| Harvard Invitational | Skipper | A | 8 | 13.8 | — |
| The George Warren Smith Trophy 24 | Skipper | A | 10 | 14.3 | 1.54 |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Crew | C | 14 | 5.6 | +0.05 |
| Mystic Lake Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 19% | — |
| Ivan Geiger Team Race | Skipper | TR | 17 | 53% | — |
| Boston University Trophy FR | Skipper | B | 6 | 6.3 | 2.13 |
| Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Crew | C | 5 | 6.2 | +0.15 |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 14 | 12.4 | 0.86 |
| The Harvard Invitational | Skipper | A | 2 | 17.0 | -0.53 |
| BU Invite | Skipper | B | 9 | 8.2 | 1.24 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Crew | C | 6 | 12.0 | -0.28 |
| 2023 Intercollegiate Tech Dinghy Championship Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 10 | 15.3 | 1.45 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Nickerson Trophy | Crew | B | 2 | 10.5 | — |
| Greater Boston Solo Championship Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 9 | 14.2 | 1.03 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Lucas Escandon |  St. Rose High School |
'22 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
