Mystic Lake Team Race

HostTufts
Date04/06/2024
TypeFundamental
BoatFJ/Lark
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Brown University	Bears	18–3
2	Roger Williams University	Hawks	16–5
3	Tufts University	Jumbos 1	13–8
4	Boston College	Eagles	12–9
5	Boston University	Terriers	9–12
6	University of Rhode Island	Rams	8–13
7	Tufts University	Jumbos 2	4–17
8	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	4–17

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 23,921 team race matches sailed before 2024-04-06, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 63 of 81 matches (78%) with a log-loss of 0.526 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.11 ± 0.23: a typical event, more orderly than 55% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Brown University Bears	1	9.00 school +0.24	Connor Macken / Sierra Bornheim 2.62 Ethan Simpson / Janelle Li 3.04 Blake Behrens / Corinne Harrison 3.07	75%	18–3 (86%)	+2.3
2	Roger Williams University Hawks	2	8.86 school +0.31	Jack Roman / Carter Sheehan 2.80 Oliver Stokke / Addyson Fisher 3.26 William Bailey / Ruby Hope 2.47	73%	14–4 (78%)	+0.9
3	Tufts University Jumbos 1	4	8.19 school +0.24, home +0.42	Samantha Jensen / Lilly Ladd 2.23 Ella Hubbard / Lilah Parker 2.67 Jack Flores / Nicole Morikawa 2.61	60%	12–6 (67%)	+1.2
4	Boston College Eagles	3	8.86 school +0.25	Ian Hopkins Guerra / Emily Marlas 2.93 Griffin Gigliotti / Damien Bocan Nick Budington / Kennedy Laureigh 3.12	72%	12–9 (57%)	−3.0
5	Boston University Terriers	7	7.09 school +0.10	Gavin Monaghan / Adam Elci 2.08 Noah Robitshek / Marguerite Bowen 2.69 Porter Bell / Nicholas Thibodeau 2.08	31%	9–12 (43%)	+2.6
6	University of Rhode Island Rams	6	7.29 school −0.10	Adam Strobridge / Jane Lally 2.15 Max Sigel / Miles Silverman 2.32 Declan Botwinick / Vanessa Reid 2.75	35%	8–13 (38%)	+0.7
7	Tufts University Jumbos 2	5	7.37 school +0.24, home +0.42	Adam Larzelere / Stefano Chiampo 2.48 Greta Traver / Harrison Vose Matthew Wallace / Sean Beaver 2.52	37%	4–17 (19%)	−3.7
8	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	8	6.75 school +0.11	Andy Yu / Katherine Jankowski Lucas Escandon / Ellie Pinto 1.43 Max Katz-Christy / Karen Dreicer Liberman 2.47	23%	4–17 (19%)	−0.9

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Brown University Bears	9.00	9.79	18–3	15.7	+0.79	1.2	16%
5	Boston University Terriers	7.09	7.72	9–12	6.4	+0.62	1.2	14%
3	Tufts University Jumbos 1	8.19	8.52	12–6	10.8	+0.34	0.3	37%
2	Roger Williams University Hawks	8.86	9.19	14–4	13.1	+0.33	0.2	41%
6	University of Rhode Island Rams	7.29	7.45	8–13	7.3	+0.16	0.1	46%
8	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	6.75	6.46	4–17	4.9	−0.28	0.2	77%
4	Boston College Eagles	8.86	8.12	12–9	15.0	−0.74	1.7	96%
7	Tufts University Jumbos 2	7.37	6.33	4–17	7.7	−1.05	2.7	99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Gavin Monaghan	Boston University	2.08	2.71	9–12	6.4	+0.62	1.2	14%
Adam Strobridge	University of Rhode Island	2.15	2.31	8–13	7.3	+0.16	0.1	46%
Andy Yu	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	2.64	2.36	4–17	4.9	−0.28	0.2	77%
Max Katz-Christy	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	2.47	2.19	4–17	4.9	−0.28	0.2	77%
Adam Larzelere	Tufts University	2.48	1.43	4–17	7.7	−1.05	2.7	99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	University of Rhode Island Rams	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	62%
1	2	Brown University Bears	Roger Williams University Hawks	53%
1	3	Tufts University Jumbos 1	Boston University Terriers	77%
1	4	Boston College Eagles	Tufts University Jumbos 2	82%
1	5	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	Brown University Bears	9%	upset
1	6	University of Rhode Island Rams	Boston University Terriers	54%
1	7	Roger Williams University Hawks	Tufts University Jumbos 2	83%
1	8	Boston College Eagles	Tufts University Jumbos 1	66%
1	9	Brown University Bears	Boston University Terriers	88%
1	10	Tufts University Jumbos 2	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	65%
1	11	University of Rhode Island Rams	Tufts University Jumbos 1	27%	upset
1	12	Roger Williams University Hawks	Boston College Eagles	51%
1	13	Boston University Terriers	Tufts University Jumbos 2	43%	upset
1	14	Brown University Bears	Tufts University Jumbos 1	69%
1	15	Roger Williams University Hawks	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	90%
1	16	Boston College Eagles	University of Rhode Island Rams	84%
1	17	Tufts University Jumbos 1	Tufts University Jumbos 2	70%
1	18	Roger Williams University Hawks	Boston University Terriers	86%
1	19	Brown University Bears	University of Rhode Island Rams	86%
1	20	Boston College Eagles	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	89%
1	22	University of Rhode Island Rams	Tufts University Jumbos 2	47%	upset
1	23	Boston University Terriers	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	59%
1	24	Brown University Bears	Boston College Eagles	54%
1	25	Roger Williams University Hawks	University of Rhode Island Rams	83%
1	26	Tufts University Jumbos 1	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	81%
1	27	Brown University Bears	Tufts University Jumbos 2	84%
1	28	Boston College Eagles	Boston University Terriers	85%
2	29	University of Rhode Island Rams	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	63%
2	30	Roger Williams University Hawks	Brown University Bears	46%	upset
2	31	Tufts University Jumbos 1	Boston University Terriers	75%
2	32	Boston College Eagles	Tufts University Jumbos 2	82%
2	33	Brown University Bears	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	91%
2	34	University of Rhode Island Rams	Boston University Terriers	55%
2	35	Tufts University Jumbos 2	Roger Williams University Hawks	18%	upset
2	36	Boston College Eagles	Tufts University Jumbos 1	66%
2	37	Brown University Bears	Boston University Terriers	87%
2	38	Tufts University Jumbos 2	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	65%
2	39	Tufts University Jumbos 1	University of Rhode Island Rams	71%
2	40	Roger Williams University Hawks	Boston College Eagles	50%
2	41	Boston University Terriers	Tufts University Jumbos 2	43%	upset
2	42	Brown University Bears	Tufts University Jumbos 1	69%
2	43	Roger Williams University Hawks	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	89%
2	44	Boston College Eagles	University of Rhode Island Rams	83%
2	45	Tufts University Jumbos 1	Tufts University Jumbos 2	69%
2	46	Roger Williams University Hawks	Boston University Terriers	85%
2	47	Brown University Bears	University of Rhode Island Rams	84%
2	48	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	Boston College Eagles	11%	upset
2	50	Tufts University Jumbos 2	University of Rhode Island Rams	52%
2	51	Boston University Terriers	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	59%
2	52	Brown University Bears	Boston College Eagles	54%
2	53	Roger Williams University Hawks	University of Rhode Island Rams	82%
2	54	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	Tufts University Jumbos 1	20%	upset
2	55	Brown University Bears	Tufts University Jumbos 2	83%
2	56	Boston University Terriers	Boston College Eagles	15%	upset
3	57	Tufts University Jumbos 1	University of Rhode Island Rams	70%
3	58	Boston College Eagles	Boston University Terriers	85%
3	59	Brown University Bears	Tufts University Jumbos 2	83%
3	60	Roger Williams University Hawks	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	89%
3	61	Tufts University Jumbos 1	Boston College Eagles	34%	upset
3	62	Brown University Bears	University of Rhode Island Rams	84%
3	63	Boston University Terriers	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	59%
3	64	Roger Williams University Hawks	Tufts University Jumbos 2	81%
3	65	Brown University Bears	Boston College Eagles	53%
3	66	Tufts University Jumbos 1	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	80%
3	67	University of Rhode Island Rams	Tufts University Jumbos 2	49%	upset
3	68	Boston University Terriers	Roger Williams University Hawks	15%	upset
3	69	Brown University Bears	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	90%
3	70	Boston College Eagles	Tufts University Jumbos 2	81%
3	71	Tufts University Jumbos 1	Boston University Terriers	74%
3	72	Roger Williams University Hawks	University of Rhode Island Rams	82%
3	73	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	Tufts University Jumbos 2	35%	upset
3	74	Brown University Bears	Boston University Terriers	87%
3	75	Boston College Eagles	University of Rhode Island Rams	82%
3	77	Boston University Terriers	Tufts University Jumbos 2	43%	upset
3	78	University of Rhode Island Rams	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	64%
3	79	Tufts University Jumbos 1	Brown University Bears	31%	upset
3	80	Roger Williams University Hawks	Boston College Eagles	50%	upset
3	81	Boston University Terriers	University of Rhode Island Rams	44%	upset
3	82	Tufts University Jumbos 1	Tufts University Jumbos 2	68%
3	83	Boston College Eagles	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	89%
3	84	Brown University Bears	Roger Williams University Hawks	54%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Bears	Hawks	1	Eagles	Terriers	Rams	2	Engineers
Brown University Bears	6–1	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	L
Roger Williams University Hawks	6–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos 1	4–10	L	L	✕	L	L	L	✕	W
Boston College Eagles	5–2	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W
Boston University Terriers	2–5	L	L	W	L	✕	L	W	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	4–3	L	L	W	L	W	✕	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos 2	4–10	L	L	✕	L	L	L	✕	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	1–6	W	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Bears	Hawks	1	Eagles	Terriers	Rams	2	Engineers
Brown University Bears	6–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	6–1	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos 1	6–8	L	L	✕	L	L	W	✕	L
Boston College Eagles	3–4	L	L	W	✕	L	W	W	L
Boston University Terriers	3–4	L	L	W	W	✕	L	W	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	2–5	L	L	L	L	W	✕	L	W
Tufts University Jumbos 2	6–8	L	L	✕	L	L	W	✕	L
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	2–5	L	L	W	W	L	L	W	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Bears	Hawks	1	Eagles	Terriers	Rams	2	Engineers
Brown University Bears	6–1	✕	W	L	W	W	W	L	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	4–3	L	✕	L	W	L	W	L	W
Tufts University Jumbos 1	7–7	W	W	✕	L	L	L	✕	L
Boston College Eagles	4–3	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W
Boston University Terriers	4–3	L	W	W	L	✕	W	W	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	2–5	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos 2	7–7	W	W	✕	L	L	L	✕	L
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	1–6	L	L	W	L	L	L	W	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
2	Bears	2-3-5	def.	Hawks	1-4-6
3	Jumbos 1	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
4	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos 2	3-4-6
5	Engineers	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6 DSQ
6	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Terriers	3-4-5
7	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos 2	3-4-6
8	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos 1	3-4-5
9	Bears	1-2-6 DSQ	def.	Terriers	3-4-5 DSQ
10	Jumbos 2	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
11	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos 1	1-5-6
12	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
13	Terriers	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos 2	1-5-6
14	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos 1	3-4-6
15	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
16	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
17	Jumbos 1	1-3-5	def.	Jumbos 2	2-4-6
18	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Terriers	4-5-6
19	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
20	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
21	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos 1	1-5-6
22	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos 2	3-4-5
23	Terriers	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
24	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
25	Hawks	2-3-5	def.	Rams	1-4-6
26	Jumbos 1	1-4-5	def.	Engineers	2-3-6
27	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos 2	4-5-6
28	Eagles	1-3-5	def.	Terriers	2-4-6
29	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
30	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
31	Jumbos 1	1-2-6	def.	Terriers	3-4-5
32	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos 2	4-5-6
33	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
34	Rams	1-3-5	def.	Terriers	2-4-6
35	Jumbos 2	1-3-6	def.	Hawks	2-4-5
36	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos 1	3-5-6
37	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Terriers	4-5-6
38	Jumbos 2	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
39	Jumbos 1	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
40	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
41	Terriers	1-3-5	def.	Jumbos 2	2-4-6
42	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos 1	3-4-6
43	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
44	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
45	Jumbos 1	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos 2	1-5-6
46	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
47	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
48	Engineers	1-3-4	def.	Eagles	2-5-6
49	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos 1	3-4-5
50	Jumbos 2	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
51	Terriers	1-4-5	def.	Engineers	2-3-6
52	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
53	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
54	Engineers	1-3-6	def.	Jumbos 1	2-4-5
55	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos 2	3-4-6
56	Terriers	2-3-5	def.	Eagles	1-4-6
57	Jumbos 1	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
58	Eagles	1-3-4	def.	Terriers	2-5-6
59	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos 2	3-4-6
60	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
61	Jumbos 1	1-3-4	def.	Eagles	2-5-6
62	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
63	Terriers	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
64	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos 2	4-5-6
65	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
66	Jumbos 1	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
67	Rams	1-3-6	def.	Jumbos 2	2-4-5
68	Terriers	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
69	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Engineers	2-4-6
70	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos 2	4-5-6
71	Jumbos 1	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
72	Hawks	1-4-5	def.	Rams	2-3-6
73	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos 2	3-4-6
74	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Terriers	3-4-5
75	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
76	Jumbos 1	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
77	Terriers	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos 2	3-5-6
78	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
79	Jumbos 1	1-3-6	def.	Bears	2-4-5
80	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
81	Terriers	1-3-4	def.	Rams	2-5-6
82	Jumbos 1	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos 2	3-4-6
83	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
84	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Hawks	2-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Brown University	Bears	Blake Behrens '27 Connor Macken '24 Ethan Simpson '27	Corinne Harrison '27 Sierra Bornheim '24 Janelle Li '25
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Jack Roman '26 Oliver Stokke '26 William Bailey '24	Carter Sheehan '27 Addyson Fisher '27 Ruby Hope '25
Tufts University	Jumbos 1	Ella Hubbard '26 Jack Flores '25 Samantha Jensen '24	Lilah Parker '26 Nicole Morikawa '25 Lilly Ladd '26
Boston College	Eagles	Griffin Gigliotti '26 Ian Hopkins Guerra '26 Nick Budington '25	Damien Bocan '27 Emily Marlas '26 Kennedy Laureigh '26
Boston University	Terriers	Gavin Monaghan '26 Noah Robitshek '25 Porter Bell '26	Adam Elci '26 Marguerite Bowen '27 Nicholas Thibodeau '26
University of Rhode Island	Rams	Adam Strobridge '26 Declan Botwinick '25 Max Sigel '26	Jane Lally '25 Vanessa Reid '26 Miles Silverman '27
Tufts University	Jumbos 2	Adam Larzelere '25 Greta Traver '27 Matthew Wallace '25	Stefano Chiampo '26 Harrison Vose '26 Sean Beaver '27
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	Andy Yu '27 Lucas Escandon '26 Max Katz-Christy '25	Katherine Jankowski '27 Ellie Pinto '27 Karen Dreicer Liberman '24

Conditions — 04/06/2024 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle

Humidity 76% · Pressure 1006.7 hPa

Temperature

40°F

↑ 42°F ↓ 37°F

Feels like 32°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

10.2 kn

avg · max 12.3 kn

Gusts to 22.9 kn

From N (349°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine2.9 hrs Humidity76% Pressure1006.7 hPa Rain0.11 in Snow0.03 in

What this breeze does at Tufts — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Tufts in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.09)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled fleet-race days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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