University of Rhode Island '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.61 (fleet 3.66) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.04 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 18–30 (38%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 | 2 | 7–15 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 2 | 11–15 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (48 matches) the record is 18–30 against 19.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-05 | Mystic Lake Team Race | skipper | 2.89 | 3.02 | 4–4 | 3.9 | +0.12 | 0.0 | 65% |
| 2025-03-15 | Ivan Geiger Trophy 2025 | skipper | 2.95 | 1.79 | 3–11 | 6.2 | −1.16 | 2.5 | 99% |
| 2024-04-06 | Mystic Lake Team Race | skipper | 2.75 | 2.91 | 8–13 | 7.3 | +0.16 | 0.1 | 46% |
| 2024-03-02 | Thames River Team Race | skipper | 2.57 | 3.64 | 3–2 | 1.9 | +1.07 | 0.8 | 28% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Mystic Lake Team Race | Skipper | TR | 8 | 50% | — |
| Ivan Geiger Trophy 2025 | Skipper | TR | 14 | 21% | — |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 8.0 | 3.66 |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 4.5 | 3.68 |
| Thames River Team Race | Skipper | TR | 6 | 67% | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 14 | 5.9 | 3.19 |
| Mystic Lake Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 38% | — |
| Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.9 | 3.80 |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Salve Regina Fleet Race Invite | Skipper | A | 3 | 3.7 | 1.21 |
| Salt Pond Invite | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.5 | 3.79 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 14 | 2.9 | 4.19 |
| The Moody | Skipper | B | 12 | 4.8 | 4.34 |
| The Harvard Invitational | Skipper | A | 2 | 7.0 | 3.17 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern 5 Fleet Race / Ewenson Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 2.7 | 3.16 |
| George Morris Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 2.5 | 4.51 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Savin Hill Invite | Skipper | A | 5 | 9.8 | 2.31 |
| Salt Pond Invite | Skipper | B | 10 | 2.7 | 3.01 |
| Pen Bay Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.1 | 0.84 |
| Great Herring Pond Open | Skipper | B | 8 | 1.6 | 3.90 |
| CC Invite Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 8.8 | 0.83 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Saturday Salve Invite | Skipper | A | 6 | 1.5 | 4.43 |
| Priddy Trophy | Skipper | A | 7 | 2.1 | 3.12 |
| Connecticut Valley Dinghy Championship Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 9.2 | 2.53 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Tufts Invitational | Skipper | B | 6 | 7.2 | 2.42 |
| Salt Pond Invite | Skipper | B | 10 | 3.9 | 3.37 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 12 | 9.0 | 2.66 |
| The Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 12.2 | 2.17 |
| Great Herring Pond Open | Skipper | B | 12 | 3.2 | 3.13 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Declan Botwinick |  Toms River North |
'21 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
