| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Roger Williams University | Hawks | 6–0 |
| 2 |  |
University of Rhode Island | Rams | 4–2 |
| 3 |  |
Connecticut College | Camels 1 | 3–3 |
| 4 |  |
Dartmouth College | Big Green | 3–3 |
| 5 | |
Connecticut College | Camels 2 | 3–3 |
| 6 |  |
University of Vermont | Catamounts | 1–5 |
| 7 |  |
Yale University | Bulldogs | 1–5 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 22,017 team race matches sailed before 2024-03-02, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 12 of 15 matches (80%) with a log-loss of 0.511 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.14 ± 0.55: a typical event, more orderly than 59% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roger Williams University Hawks | 8.77 | 11.77 | 5–0 | 4.4 | ≥+3.00 | 0.8 | 54% |
| 3 | Connecticut College Camels 1 | 6.40 | 7.56 | 3–2 | 1.8 | +1.16 | 1.0 | 24% |
| 2 | University of Rhode Island Rams | 6.53 | 7.59 | 3–2 | 1.9 | +1.07 | 0.8 | 28% |
| 5 | Connecticut College Camels 2 | 6.65 | 6.60 | 2–3 | 2.1 | −0.05 | 0.0 | 70% |
| 4 | Dartmouth College Big Green | 7.56 | 6.30 | 2–3 | 3.3 | −1.26 | 1.2 | 97% |
| 6 | University of Vermont Catamounts | 6.14 | 3.14 | 0–5 | 1.5 | ≤−3.00 | 2.6 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wade Anthony | Connecticut College | 2.02 | 5.03 | 3–0 | 1.3 | ≥+3.00 | 3.7 | 6% |
| Charles Bresnahan | Connecticut College | 1.60 | 2.76 | 3–2 | 1.8 | +1.16 | 1.0 | 24% |
| Ryan Mckinney | Connecticut College | 2.05 | 3.21 | 3–2 | 1.8 | +1.16 | 1.0 | 24% |
| Adam Strobridge | University of Rhode Island | 2.10 | 3.17 | 3–2 | 1.9 | +1.07 | 0.8 | 28% |
| Fritz Baldauf | Connecticut College | 1.78 | 1.73 | 2–3 | 2.1 | −0.05 | 0.0 | 70% |
| Ava Hurwitz | Dartmouth College | 1.69 | 0.43 | 2–3 | 3.3 | −1.26 | 1.2 | 97% |
| Elizabeth Amelotte | University of Vermont | 1.69 | -1.31 | 0–3 | 0.6 | ≤−3.00 | 1.0 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Hawks | Rams | 1 | Green | 2 | Catamounts | Bulldogs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 6–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| University of Rhode Island Rams | 4–2 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| Connecticut College Camels 1 | 6–6 | L | L | ✕ | W | ✕ | W | W |
| Dartmouth College Big Green | 3–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | L | W | W |
| Connecticut College Camels 2 | 6–6 | L | L | ✕ | W | ✕ | W | W |
| University of Vermont Catamounts | 1–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Yale University Bulldogs | 1–5 | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Camels 1 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Camels 2 | 2-3-6 |
| 2 | |
Hawks | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Rams | 2-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Big Green | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Catamounts | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Bulldogs | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Camels 1 | 2-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Hawks | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Camels 2 | 2-3-6 |
| 6 | |
Rams | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Big Green | 1-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Catamounts | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Hawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Camels 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Big Green | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Camels 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Rams | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Catamounts | 1-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Hawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Camels 1 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Big Green | 2-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Camels 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Catamounts | 3-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Rams | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Hawks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Big Green | 1-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Camels 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Catamounts | 3-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Camels 2 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Rams | 1-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Big Green | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 2-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Hawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Catamounts | 3-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Rams | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Camels 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Camels 2 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 2-3-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Roger Williams University | Hawks | Jack Roman '26 Kyle Pfrang '26 Luke Hosek '24 William Bailey '24 |
Maren Matthews '26 Julia O'Connor '24 Ethan Snyder '25 Ruby Hope '25 |
|
University of Rhode Island | Rams | Adam Strobridge '26 Declan Botwinick '25 John Polek '26 |
Jane Lally '25 Vanessa Reid '26 Miles Silverman '27 |
|
Connecticut College | Camels 1 | Andrew Powers '24 Charles Bresnahan '24 Ryan Mckinney '24 Wade Anthony '24 |
Ashley Breyer '24 Cecilia Roe '26 Cecilia Bohan '24 Vivian Smith '27 Sophia Rey '26 |
|
Dartmouth College | Big Green | Ava Hurwitz '27 Ben Sheppard '27 Ryan Satterberg '27 |
Phoebe Lee '26 Vivian Heitkoetter '27 Sophie Menyhart '27 |
|
Connecticut College | Camels 2 | Fritz Baldauf '24 Henry Scholz '27 Liam Gronda '25 |
Alejandro Amezcua '25 Renee Smith '24 Andrew Selian '27 |
|
University of Vermont | Catamounts | Calvin Lamosse '25 Christian Cushman '25 Elizabeth Amelotte '24 Ryan Potter '24 |
Will Broseman '26 Brooke Willke '24 Ryan Potter '24 Maddy Saffer '24 Alex Forrest '26 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
