Dartmouth College '27
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.53 (fleet 2.17) | 273 of 328 | −0.04 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 15–21 (42%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 2 | 7–0 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 4 | 8–21 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (34 matches) the record is 14–20 against 17.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−3.3). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | McMerrick Team Race Saturday | skipper | 1.75 | 4.75 | 6–0 | 5.1 | ≥+3.00 | 1.4 | 35% |
| 2024-03-30 | Jumbo Team Race | skipper | 1.69 | 0.44 | 2–16 | 5.2 | −1.25 | 2.6 | 99% |
| 2024-03-03 | McMerrick Cup SUNDAY | skipper | 1.73 | 2.22 | 4–1 | 3.7 | +0.48 | 0.1 | 66% |
| 2024-03-02 | Thames River Team Race | skipper | 1.69 | 0.43 | 2–3 | 3.3 | −1.26 | 1.2 | 97% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| McMerrick Team Race Saturday | Skipper | TR | 13 | 62% | — |
| Harvard Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 8 | 88% | — |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 5 | 9.6 | 2.38 |
| The 27th Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 5 | 15.6 | -0.34 |
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| NEISA Spring Women's Fleet Race Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 3 | 10.0 | 2.44 |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Finals Women's | Skipper | A | 2 | 17.5 | 0.19 |
| Regis Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.9 | 2.89 |
| The 26th Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.9 | 2.97 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 7.6 | 2.67 |
| Charles Invitational | Skipper | B | 4 | 5.0 | 0.62 |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Thames River Team Race | Skipper | TR | 6 | 50% | — |
| Mendums Invite | Skipper | A | 4 | 6.5 | 1.72 |
| McMerrick Cup SUNDAY | Skipper | TR | 5 | 80% | — |
| Jumbo Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 11% | — |
| Central 4 UNH | Skipper | B | 4 | 4.0 | 1.97 |
| BU Team Race | Skipper | TR | 5 | 40% | — |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 8.7 | 2.14 |
| Savin Hill Invite | Skipper | B | 8 | 7.5 | 3.03 |
| The George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 11.9 | 1.76 |
| Callagy Ross Trophy | Skipper | B | 3 | 5.0 | 1.01 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Ava Hurwitz |  Antilles School |
'23 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
