McMerrick Team Race Saturday

HostRoger Williams
Date02/28/2026
TypeFundamental
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Roger Williams University	Hawks	13–0
2	University of Rhode Island	Rams	10–3
3	Tufts University	Jumbos	10–3
4	Dartmouth College	Big Green	8–5
5	University of Vermont	Catamounts	4–9
6	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	3–8
7	Boston University	Terriers 1	2–10
8	Boston University	Terriers 2	0–12

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 28,305 team race matches sailed before 2026-02-28, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 46 of 52 matches (88%) with a log-loss of 0.216 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.34 ± 0.24: an orderly event, more orderly than 79% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Roger Williams University Hawks	1	10.73 school +0.41, home +0.36	Connor Mchugh / Maggie Fleming 3.00 12–0 Tristan Mcdonald / Frankie Sparrow 3.38 12–0 Bo Angus / Jancy Grayson 10–0 Parker Moore / Peter Cotoia 8–0	96%	14–0 (100%)	+0.5
2	University of Rhode Island Rams	3	8.02 school −0.10	Keith Grupenhoff / Parker Brown Olin Guck / Olivia Dutra 2.39 Max Sigel / Ava Kiss 2.60	67%	11–3 (79%)	+1.6
3	Tufts University Jumbos	2	8.93 school +0.40	Ella Hubbard / Eloise Goedkoop 2.91 4–4 Sophia Hubbard / Lilah Parker 2.96 6–0 Maddie Janzen / Amelia Traver 2–4 Maddie Janzen / Dory Russell 4–0 Sophia Hubbard / Dory Russell 2.88 2–2 Kiana Beachy / Eloise Goedkoop 2.54 2–0 Maddie Janzen / Eloise Goedkoop 2–0 Ella Hubbard / Lilah Parker 2.89 2–0 Sophia Hubbard / Amelia Traver 2.91 2–0 Kiana Beachy / Lilah Parker 2.51 2–0 Ella Hubbard / Dory Russell 2.81 2–0 Kiana Beachy / Dory Russell 2.44 0–2	78%	10–4 (71%)	−0.9
4	Dartmouth College Big Green	4	7.45 school +0.33	Alders Kulynych-Irvin / Grace Patterson Turner Ryon / Sudi Zhao Ava Hurwitz / Finn Cairns 1.75 6–0 Bradley Kirkpatrick / Abbie Deng 1–3 Bradley Kirkpatrick / Finn Cairns 0–2	52%	7–5 (58%)	+0.8
5	University of Vermont Catamounts	7	5.39 school −0.26	William Denker / Ryan Thompson 4–4 Jordynn Johnson / Julia Brighton 1.16 0–8 Caitlin Derby / Mia Cassetta 2.08 2–4 Ethan Burt / Charlotte Tutt 2.31 2–2 Ethan Burt / Mira Broussard 2.31 2–2 Ethan Burt / Lane Kaeyer 2.47 0–4 Caitlin Derby / Lane Kaeyer 2.07 2–0	27%	4–8 (33%)	+0.7
6	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	5	6.22 school −0.07	Noah Reischmann / Posie Cabaniss Henry Ladd / Hazel Johnson Cole Amaral / Ava Tobias 2.08 1–7 Cole Amaral / Caroline O'Hara 2.18 2–2	32%	3–9 (25%)	−0.9
7	Boston University Terriers 1	6	6.02 school +0.21	Buck Rathbun / Sage Andrews 1.78 Peter Stewart / Marguerite Bowen 2.25 Richard Kalich / Amanda Wong 1.73	31%	2–10 (17%)	−1.7
8	Boston University Terriers 2	8	4.39 school +0.21	Beckett Shinn / Nola Lai 1–9 Harrison Stevens / Andrea Comerford 0–8 Bailey Kreszswick / Zachary Fournier 0–8 Graham Welsh / Saanvi Gupta 0–4 Harrison Stevens / Saanvi Gupta 1–3 Graham Welsh / Zachary Fournier 1–3 Beckett Shinn / Andrea Comerford 0–2 Graham Welsh / Nola Lai 0–2	8%	1–13 (7%)	−0.1

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Roger Williams University Hawks	10.73	13.73	14–0	13.5	≥+3.00	0.7	59%
2	University of Rhode Island Rams	8.02	9.10	11–3	9.4	+1.09	1.2	20%
5	University of Vermont Catamounts	5.39	5.91	4–8	3.3	+0.52	0.3	41%
4	Dartmouth College Big Green	7.45	7.95	7–5	6.2	+0.51	0.3	41%
8	Boston University Terriers 2	4.39	4.28	1–13	1.1	−0.11	0.0	70%
6	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	6.22	5.59	3–9	3.9	−0.62	0.4	88%
3	Tufts University Jumbos	8.93	8.25	10–4	10.9	−0.68	0.5	90%
7	Boston University Terriers 1	6.02	4.48	2–10	3.7	−1.54	1.8	98%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Connor Mchugh	Roger Williams University	3.00	6.00	12–0	11.7	≥+3.00	0.4	76%
Tristan Mcdonald	Roger Williams University	3.38	6.38	12–0	11.5	≥+3.00	0.7	60%
Parker Moore	Roger Williams University	3.47	6.47	8–0	7.7	≥+3.00	0.4	74%
Ava Hurwitz	Dartmouth College	1.75	4.75	6–0	5.1	≥+3.00	1.4	35%
Bo Angus	Roger Williams University	3.47	6.47	10–0	9.5	≥+3.00	0.7	61%
William Denker	University of Vermont	1.50	3.19	4–4	2.6	+1.69	1.7	16%
Keith Grupenhoff	University of Rhode Island	3.03	4.12	11–3	9.4	+1.09	1.2	20%
Olin Guck	University of Rhode Island	2.39	3.47	11–3	9.4	+1.09	1.2	20%
Max Sigel	University of Rhode Island	2.60	3.68	11–3	9.4	+1.09	1.2	20%
Caitlin Derby	University of Vermont	2.08	2.74	4–4	3.2	+0.66	0.4	37%
Sophia Hubbard	Tufts University	2.96	3.50	10–2	9.6	+0.54	0.1	60%
Ethan Burt	University of Vermont	2.31	2.83	4–8	3.3	+0.52	0.3	41%
Alders Kulynych-Irvin	Dartmouth College	2.46	2.97	7–5	6.2	+0.51	0.3	41%
Turner Ryon	Dartmouth College	2.79	3.30	7–5	6.2	+0.51	0.3	41%
Harrison Stevens	Boston University	1.21	1.55	1–11	0.7	+0.34	0.1	55%
Beckett Shinn	Boston University	1.73	1.82	1–11	0.9	+0.10	0.0	63%
Graham Welsh	Boston University	1.19	1.20	1–9	1.0	+0.01	0.0	66%
Bradley Kirkpatrick	Dartmouth College	1.82	1.63	1–5	1.2	−0.19	0.0	75%
Cole Amaral	Bowdoin College	2.08	1.46	3–9	3.9	−0.62	0.4	88%
Noah Reischmann	Bowdoin College	1.70	1.08	3–9	3.9	−0.62	0.4	88%
Henry Ladd	Bowdoin College	2.35	1.73	3–9	3.9	−0.62	0.4	88%
Maddie Janzen	Tufts University	2.85	2.13	8–4	9.0	−0.72	0.5	91%
Ella Hubbard	Tufts University	2.91	2.14	8–4	9.0	−0.77	0.6	92%
Buck Rathbun	Boston University	1.78	0.24	2–10	3.7	−1.54	1.8	98%
Peter Stewart	Boston University	2.25	0.71	2–10	3.7	−1.54	1.8	98%
Richard Kalich	Boston University	1.73	0.19	2–10	3.7	−1.54	1.8	98%
Kiana Beachy	Tufts University	2.54	0.78	4–2	5.2	−1.76	1.6	99%
Bailey Kreszswick	Boston University	0.81	-2.19	0–8	0.6	≤−3.00	0.9	>99%
Jordynn Johnson	University of Vermont	1.16	-1.84	0–8	0.8	≤−3.00	1.2	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Tufts University Jumbos	Dartmouth College Big Green	83%
1	2	University of Rhode Island Rams	Boston University Terriers 2	97%
1	3	University of Vermont Catamounts	Boston University Terriers 1	42%	upset
1	4	Roger Williams University Hawks	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	99%
1	5	Dartmouth College Big Green	Boston University Terriers 2	96%
1	6	Tufts University Jumbos	Boston University Terriers 1	96%
1	7	Roger Williams University Hawks	University of Rhode Island Rams	94%
1	8	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	University of Vermont Catamounts	71%
1	9	Boston University Terriers 1	Boston University Terriers 2	92%
1	10	Roger Williams University Hawks	Dartmouth College Big Green	96%
1	11	Tufts University Jumbos	University of Vermont Catamounts	97%
1	12	University of Rhode Island Rams	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	86%
1	13	Roger Williams University Hawks	Boston University Terriers 1	99%
1	14	University of Vermont Catamounts	Boston University Terriers 2	84%
1	15	University of Rhode Island Rams	Dartmouth College Big Green	63%
1	16	Tufts University Jumbos	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	95%
1	17	Roger Williams University Hawks	University of Vermont Catamounts	100%
1	18	University of Rhode Island Rams	Boston University Terriers 1	88%
1	19	Tufts University Jumbos	Boston University Terriers 2	99%
1	20	Dartmouth College Big Green	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	77%
1	21	University of Rhode Island Rams	University of Vermont Catamounts	95%
1	22	Roger Williams University Hawks	Tufts University Jumbos	89%
1	23	Dartmouth College Big Green	Boston University Terriers 1	80%
1	24	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	Boston University Terriers 2	81%
1	25	University of Rhode Island Rams	Tufts University Jumbos	35%	upset
1	27	Roger Williams University Hawks	Boston University Terriers 2	100%
2	29	Tufts University Jumbos	Dartmouth College Big Green	84%
2	30	University of Rhode Island Rams	Boston University Terriers 2	96%
2	31	University of Vermont Catamounts	Boston University Terriers 1	44%	upset
2	32	Roger Williams University Hawks	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	99%
2	33	Dartmouth College Big Green	Boston University Terriers 2	95%
2	34	Tufts University Jumbos	Boston University Terriers 1	96%
2	35	Roger Williams University Hawks	University of Rhode Island Rams	93%
2	36	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	University of Vermont Catamounts	70%
2	37	Boston University Terriers 1	Boston University Terriers 2	90%
2	38	Roger Williams University Hawks	Dartmouth College Big Green	96%
2	39	Tufts University Jumbos	University of Vermont Catamounts	97%
2	40	University of Rhode Island Rams	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	86%
2	41	Roger Williams University Hawks	Boston University Terriers 1	99%
2	42	University of Vermont Catamounts	Boston University Terriers 2	81%
2	43	Dartmouth College Big Green	University of Rhode Island Rams	37%	upset
2	44	Tufts University Jumbos	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	95%
2	45	Roger Williams University Hawks	University of Vermont Catamounts	100%
2	46	University of Rhode Island Rams	Boston University Terriers 1	88%
2	47	Tufts University Jumbos	Boston University Terriers 2	98%
2	48	Dartmouth College Big Green	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	77%
2	49	University of Rhode Island Rams	University of Vermont Catamounts	95%
2	50	Roger Williams University Hawks	Tufts University Jumbos	88%
2	51	Dartmouth College Big Green	Boston University Terriers 1	80%
2	52	Boston University Terriers 2	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	20%	upset
2	53	University of Rhode Island Rams	Tufts University Jumbos	35%	upset
2	55	Roger Williams University Hawks	Boston University Terriers 2	100%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Hawks	Rams	Jumbos	Green	Catamounts	Bears	1	2
Roger Williams University Hawks	7–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	6–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	5–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	4–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	2–5	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	2–5	L	L	L	L	W	✕	L	L
Boston University Terriers 1	2–12	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	✕
Boston University Terriers 2	2–12	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Hawks	Rams	Jumbos	Green	Catamounts	Bears	1	2
Roger Williams University Hawks	7–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	5–2	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	5–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	4–3	L	W	L	✕	L	W	W	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	3–4	L	L	L	W	✕	L	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	1–6	L	L	L	L	W	✕	L	L
Boston University Terriers 1	3–11	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	✕
Boston University Terriers 2	3–11	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
2	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Terriers 2	3-4-6
3	Catamounts	1-3-6	def.	Terriers 1	2-4-5
4	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
5	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Terriers 2	3-5-6
6	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Terriers 1	4-5-6
7	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
8	Polar Bears	1-2-4	def.	Catamounts	3-5-6
9	Terriers 1	1-2-3	def.	Terriers 2	4-5-6
10	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
11	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Catamounts	3-5-6
12	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
13	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Terriers 1	4-5-6
14	Catamounts	1-3-4	def.	Terriers 2	2-5-6
15	Rams	1-3-5	def.	Big Green	2-4-6
16	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
17	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
18	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Terriers 1	3-4-6
19	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Terriers 2	1-5-6
20	Big Green	2-3-5	def.	Polar Bears	1-4-6
21	Rams	1-2-4	def.	Catamounts	3-5-6
22	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
23	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Terriers 1	4-5-6
24	Polar Bears	2-3-4	def.	Terriers 2	1-5-6
25	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
26	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
27	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Terriers 2	3-5-6
28	Terriers 1		def.	Polar Bears
29	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
30	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Terriers 2	3-4-6
31	Catamounts	1-3-6	def.	Terriers 1	2-4-5
32	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
33	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Terriers 2	3-5-6
34	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Terriers 1	4-5-6
35	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
36	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
37	Terriers 1	1-2-6	def.	Terriers 2	3-4-5
38	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
39	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Catamounts	3-4-5
40	Rams	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
41	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Terriers 1	3-4-6
42	Catamounts	1-2-3	def.	Terriers 2	4-5-6
43	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
44	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
45	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
46	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Terriers 1	3-4-6
47	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Terriers 2	3-4-5
48	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
49	Rams	1-2-4	def.	Catamounts	3-5-6
50	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
51	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Terriers 1	1-5-6
52	Terriers 2		def.	Polar Bears
53	Rams		def.	Jumbos
54	Catamounts		def.	Big Green
55	Hawks		def.	Terriers 2
56	Terriers 1		def.	Polar Bears

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Bo Angus '29 Connor Mchugh '28 Parker Moore '29 Tristan Mcdonald '28	Jancy Grayson '28 Maggie Fleming '27 Peter Cotoia '26 Frankie Sparrow '27
University of Rhode Island	Rams	Keith Grupenhoff '29 Max Sigel '26 Olin Guck '26	Parker Brown '26 Ava Kiss '29 Olivia Dutra '28
Tufts University	Jumbos	Ella Hubbard '26 Kiana Beachy '28 Maddie Janzen '29 Sophia Hubbard '28	Eloise Goedkoop '27 Dory Russell '28 Lilah Parker '26 Amelia Traver '28
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Alders Kulynych-Irvin '29 Ava Hurwitz '27 Bradley Kirkpatrick '29 Turner Ryon '29	Grace Patterson '29 Finn Cairns '29 Abbie Deng '29 Sudi Zhao '26
University of Vermont	Catamounts	Caitlin Derby '26 Ethan Burt '26 Jordynn Johnson '27 William Denker '27	Lane Kaeyer '27 Mia Cassetta '29 Charlotte Tutt '28 Mira Broussard '29 Julia Brighton '27 Ryan Thompson '26
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	Cole Amaral '28 Henry Ladd '29 Noah Reischmann '29	Ava Tobias '28 Caroline O'Hara '29 Hazel Johnson '27 Posie Cabaniss '27
Boston University	Terriers 1	Buck Rathbun '28 Peter Stewart '28 Richard Kalich '26	Sage Andrews '28 Marguerite Bowen '27 Amanda Wong '29
Boston University	Terriers 2	Bailey Kreszswick '29 Beckett Shinn '29 Graham Welsh '29 Harrison Stevens '26	Zachary Fournier '26 Nola Lai '29 Andrea Comerford '29 Saanvi Gupta '29

Conditions — 02/28/2026 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 83% · Pressure 1019.9 hPa

Temperature

34°F

↑ 36°F ↓ 29°F

Feels like 26°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

7.9 kn

avg · max 8.8 kn

Gusts to 12.1 kn

From SSE (166°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover6% Sunshine10.5 hrs Humidity83% Pressure1019.9 hPa

What this breeze does at Roger Williams — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Roger Williams in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.09)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Roger Williams by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (20 labelled fleet-race days at Roger Williams).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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