University of Rhode Island '29
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.82 (fleet 3.79) | 64 of 331 | +0.07 ± 0.16 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 33–41 (45%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 7 | 33–41 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (70 matches) the record is 30–40 against 26.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.9). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Thompson Trophy | skipper | 3.37 | 3.51 | 5–8 | 4.7 | +0.14 | 0.0 | 54% |
| 2026-04-04 | NEISA Open Team Race Championship/Fowle Trophy | skipper | 3.32 | 3.98 | 5–7 | 3.7 | +0.66 | 0.6 | 26% |
| 2026-03-28 | The Lynn Marchiando Trophy Team Race-2026 | skipper | 3.12 | 3.37 | 5–13 | 4.3 | +0.25 | 0.1 | 45% |
| 2026-03-21 | Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 3.10 | 3.03 | 4–9 | 4.1 | −0.07 | 0.0 | 67% |
| 2026-02-28 | McMerrick Team Race Saturday | skipper | 3.04 | 4.20 | 11–3 | 9.3 | +1.16 | 1.4 | 17% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Keith Grupenhoff |  Immaculata La Salle High School |
'25 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
