| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Boston College | Eagles | 11–1 |
| 2 |  |
University of Rhode Island | Rams | 10–2 |
| 3 |  |
Bowdoin College | Polar Bears | 6–6 |
| 4 |  |
Boston University | Terriers | 5–7 |
| 5 |  |
U. S. Coast Guard Academy | Bears 2 | 4–8 |
| 6 | |
U. S. Coast Guard Academy | Bears 1 | 4–8 |
| 7 |  |
Massachusetts Institute of Technology | Engineers | 0–12 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 28,966 team race matches sailed before 2026-03-14, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 25 of 30 matches (83%) with a log-loss of 0.450 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.05 ± 0.33: a typical event, more orderly than 37% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | University of Rhode Island Rams | 9.08 | 10.05 | 8–2 | 6.8 | +0.98 | 0.8 | 27% |
| 5 | U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2 | 6.53 | 7.18 | 3–7 | 2.1 | +0.65 | 0.4 | 35% |
| 4 | Boston University Terriers | 6.76 | 7.41 | 3–7 | 2.0 | +0.65 | 0.5 | 31% |
| 1 | Boston College Eagles | 10.71 | 10.24 | 9–1 | 9.3 | −0.47 | 0.1 | 86% |
| 3 | Bowdoin College Polar Bears | 8.46 | 7.91 | 5–5 | 5.8 | −0.55 | 0.3 | 87% |
| 6 | U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1 | 7.63 | 6.35 | 2–8 | 4.0 | −1.27 | 1.7 | 98% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Eagles | Rams | Bears | Terriers | 2 | 1 | Engineers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College Eagles | 5–1 | ✕ | L | W | W | W | W | W |
| University of Rhode Island Rams | 5–1 | W | ✕ | W | L | W | W | W |
| Bowdoin College Polar Bears | 3–3 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W | L |
| Boston University Terriers | 2–4 | L | W | L | ✕ | L | L | W |
| U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2 | 4–8 | L | L | L | W | ✕ | ✕ | W |
| U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1 | 4–8 | L | L | L | W | ✕ | ✕ | W |
| Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers | 2–4 | L | L | W | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Eagles | Rams | Bears | Terriers | 2 | 1 | Engineers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College Eagles | 6–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| University of Rhode Island Rams | 5–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| Bowdoin College Polar Bears | 3–3 | L | L | ✕ | L | W | W | W |
| Boston University Terriers | 3–3 | L | L | W | ✕ | L | L | W |
| U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2 | 4–8 | L | L | L | W | ✕ | ✕ | W |
| U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1 | 4–8 | L | L | L | W | ✕ | ✕ | W |
| Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers | 0–6 | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Terriers | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Polar Bears | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 2-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Engineers | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Terriers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Rams | 2-3-6 |
| 5 | |
Polar Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Rams | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Engineers | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Polar Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Terriers | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Eagles | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Bears 1 | 1-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Engineers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 1-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Rams | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Terriers | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Engineers | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Rams | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Terriers | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Engineers | 2-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Bears 1 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 1-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Rams | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-4-5 |
| 19 | |
Engineers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 2-3-6 |
| 20 | |
Bears 2 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Terriers | 1-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Rams | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Bears 1 | 1-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Terriers | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bears 1 | 2-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Polar Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Engineers | 4-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Rams | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Terriers | 2-4-5 |
| 26 | |
Polar Bears | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bears 1 | 2-4-6 |
| 27 | |
Eagles | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 2-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Rams | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Engineers | 3-4-6 |
| 29 | |
Terriers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 1-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Eagles | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 31 | |
Bears 2 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Engineers | 2-4-5 |
| 32 | |
Rams | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Terriers | 4-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Engineers | 3-4-6 |
| 35 | |
Rams | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 36 | |
Eagles | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Polar Bears | 1-5-6 |
| 37 | |
Terriers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Engineers | 2-3-6 DNF |
| 38 | |
Bears 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears 1 | 3-5-6 DNF |
| 39 | |
Eagles | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-5 |
| 40 | |
Polar Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Engineers | 3-4-5 |
| 41 | |
Bears 2 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Terriers | 2-3-6 |
| 42 | |
Rams | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears 1 | 3-4-6 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
