U. S. Coast Guard Academy '28
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.86 (fleet 2.63) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.04 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 11–16 (41%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 2 | 9–10 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 1 | 2–6 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (27 matches) the record is 11–16 against 13.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.3). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 2.33 | 0.72 | 6–3 | 8.0 | −1.60 | 2.5 | 99% |
| 2026-03-14 | Geiger Trophy | skipper | 2.14 | 2.71 | 3–7 | 2.2 | +0.58 | 0.3 | 38% |
| 2025-04-05 | Mystic Lake Team Race | skipper | 2.23 | 0.95 | 2–6 | 3.1 | −1.28 | 0.9 | 96% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Mt. Hope Bay Invite | Skipper | B | 9 | 8.6 | -0.53 |
| Eli Invite | Skipper | B | 9 | 6.3 | 0.06 |
| Dave Perry Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.5 | 0.82 |
| Coast Guard Invite | Skipper | B | 7 | 7.3 | 1.53 |
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Geiger Trophy | Skipper | TR | 12 | 33% | — |
| Boston Dinghy Challenge Cup-2026 | Skipper | B | 10 | 5.4 | 3.14 |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 67% | — |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Mystic Lake Invite | Skipper | A | 4 | 13.5 | 2.54 |
| The George Warren Smith Trophy 25 | Skipper | A | 7 | 8.4 | 2.72 |
| Dave Perry Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 11.5 | 2.23 |
| Bears Invite | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.5 | 3.51 |
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 6.2 | 2.94 |
| Mystic Lake Team Race | Skipper | TR | 8 | 25% | — |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Salt Pond Invite | Skipper | B | 2 | 3.5 | 2.54 |
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 3.5 | 4.02 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 12.1 | 2.75 |
| Mt. Hope Bay Invite | Skipper | A | 14 | 6.3 | 2.72 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 3.5 | 2.53 |
| Coast Guard Invite | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.9 | 3.37 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
