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Coast Guard Invite

Analysis
# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 81
2 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1 86
3 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2 88
4 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 1 90
5 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 141
6 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 157
7 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 162
8 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 2 194
9 Brown University Brown University Bears 198
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs B 2 1 1 4 14 3 2 27 Eli Shainker '30
Matilda Twigg '29
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1 A 3 4 3 7 7 2 6 32 Liam Marcell '30
Gabriella Fields '28
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 1 A 7 3 2 1 1 11 8 33 Rory Murray '29
Madeline Synnestvedt '27
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2 A 8 5 7 2 2 8 5 37 Peter Judge '29
Julian Henderson '27
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2 B 4 6 12 9 3 1 16 51 David Vinogradov '28
Brady Noon '30
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs A 1 7 4 10 12 10 10 54 Thomas O'Grady '30
Margaret Ratzan '29
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1 B 11 2 10 6 4 12 9 54 John Fichtenholtz '29
Austin White '27
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams A 15 10 9 8 8 6 1 57 Pierson Falk '28
Emily Grevell '27
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 1 B 5 8 5 5 16 7 11 57 Keegan Chatburn '29
Lyra Monaco '30
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks B 12 11 15 3 5 5 12 63 Colin Auvil '30
Sophia Litos '29
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears A 13 12 16 11 6 15 3 76 Cole Amaral '28 [1-3, 7]
Henry Ladd '29 [4-6]
Kate Lavallee '29 [1-3, 7]
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks A 6 14 17 13 11 4 13 78 Paul Chapman '30
Mackenzie Speece '28
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears B 9 9 6 15 15 13 14 81 Noah Reischmann '29 [1-3, 7]
Mairéad Reitzel '28 [4-6]
Yasmine Nee '29 [1-3, 7]
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 2 A 10 13 11 16 10 17 7 84 Leif Carlson '30 [1-3, 7]
Jeremiah Mccarthy '30 [4-6]
Nadia Goodman '29 [1-3, 7]
Alexandra Demopoulos '30 [4-6]
Brown University Brown University Bears B 17 18 8 14 13 16 4 90 Alexander Van Doren '30 [1-2, 5-6]
Ethan Huang '30 [3-4, 7]
Ethan Huang '30 [1-2, 5-6]
Alexander Van Doren '30 [3-4, 7]
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams B 18 16 13 18 9 14 17 105 Ava Mcdermott '30
Audra Murray '29
Brown University Brown University Bears A 16 17 18 12 18 9 18 108 Quinn Brighton '27
Lola Walker '30
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 2 B 14 15 14 17 17 18 15 110 Lily Stemhagen '29
Stevie Thomsen '27
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (13 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears1111111
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears2222222
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 16666666
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 27777777
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels 13333333
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels 24444444
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams8888888
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks5555555
Yale UniversityYale University Bulldogs9999999

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears10101010101010
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears11111111111111
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 115151515151515
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 216161616161616
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels 112121212121212
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels 213131313131313
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams17171717171717
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks14141414141414
Yale UniversityYale University Bulldogs18181818181818

Conditions — 10/24/2026 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 43%  ·  Pressure 1033.5 hPa

Temperature

54°F
↑ 62°F   ↓ 33°F
Feels like 48°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.0 kn
avg  ·  max 5.5 kn
Gusts to 9.3 kn
From NW (306°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover30% Sunshine9.8 hrs Humidity43% Pressure1033.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: no wind record for this regatta; the venue average is used
In this breeze at Coast Guard: a typical day (+0.00)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment −0.07 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.06
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.08 ± 0.21)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Coast Guard by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (57 labelled days at Coast Guard).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →