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Mt. Hope Bay Invite

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 1 62 62
2 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 2 62 62
3 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 3 87 87
4 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1 88 88
5 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2 96 96
6 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 3 109 109
7 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 1 111 111
8 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 2 112 112
9 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 4 126 126
10 Brown University Brown University Bears 2 138 138
11 Brown University Brown University Bears 1 139 139
12 Brown University Brown University Bears 3 140 140
13 Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 1 142 142
14 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 3 154 154
15 Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 3 167 167
16 Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 2 173 173
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT Sailors
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 1 1 1 1 8 1 2 2 7 2 4 2 12 7 12 62 Connor Mchugh '28
Caroline Felser '28
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 2 9 3 2 1 4 11 1 3 8 7 1 3 4 5 62 Tristan Mcdonald '28
Frankie Sparrow '27
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 3 8 16 3 2 2 10 4 4 3 5 12 11 1 6 87 Edward Herman '28
Ethan Martin '28
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1 2 11 5 6 11 13 12 1 9 1 3 1 10 3 88 David Vinogradov '28 [1-14]
Tomas Riccio '28 [1-4, 9-14]
Sam Puleio '28 [5-8]
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2 15 9 4 11 6 5 6 6 1 8 5 4 9 7 96 Joey Richardson '28
Allison Nystrom '26
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 3 3 10 10 5 7 7 7 5 13 3 14 5 11 9 109 Meara Conley '28
Julian Henderson '27
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 1 12 7 8 10 15 12 5 2 5 6 4 8 6 11 111 Pierson Falk '28
Dean Balcirak '25
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 2 5 6 12 3 3 6 9 12 6 14 11 9 12 4 112 John Mason '28
Spencer Asofsky '25
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 4 4 15 11 7 10 4 3 9 7 13 15 2 16 10 126 Jancy Grayson '28
Mackenzie Speece '28
Brown University Brown University Bears 2 13 4 6 12 9 3 13 11 15 15 7 15 2 13 138 Daniel Van Heeckeren '26 [1-6]
Jean-Luc Depardieu '27 [7-14]
Anna Steffen '25 [1-6]
William Salerno '25 [7-14]
Brown University Brown University Bears 1 16 12 9 9 12 8 11 10 11 10 9 7 13 2 139 Keller Morrison '25 [1-14]
Ali Mcintyre '27 [1-6]
Patience Gifford '27 [7-14]
Brown University Brown University Bears 3 7 2 7 4 8 1 15 14 16 16 6 14 15 15 140 James Brock '28 [1-6]
Quinn Brighton '27 [7-14]
Tucker Gibbs '27 [1-6]
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 1 11 8 14 15 14 15 14 8 4 2 8 16 5 8 142 Sean Morrison '27 [1-8, 11-12]
Emil Tullberg '25 [9-10, 13-14]
Julia Overmyer '27 [1-6]
Kate Johnson '25 [7-8, 11-12]
Zara Bennett '28 [9-10, 13-14]
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 3 6 BYE 13 13 5 9 10 13 12 12 16 6 14 14 154 Emaline Ouellette '28
Brigette Alves '25
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 3 14 14 15 14 13 14 16 16 10 9 10 13 8 1 167 Emilia Perriera '28 [1-8, 11-12]
Olivia Lowthian '25 [9-10, 13-14]
Caelan Haddock '25 [1-8, 11-12]
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 2 10 5 DNS DNS DNS DNS 8 15 14 11 13 10 3 16 173 Tyler Winowiecki '27 [1-14]
Nat Altuzar '27 [1-6]
Lilly Dubovsky '27 [7-8, 11-12]
Shannon Gondoly '25 [9-10, 13-14]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.190+0.19
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2023 (6 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 111223344556677
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 2221116161515141413131212
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 333445566778899
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 111111212131314141515161611
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 212121111101099887766
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 31313141415151616112233
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams 1141413131212111110109988
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams 2151516161122334455
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams 31616151514141313121211111010
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks 144332211161615151414
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks 2556677889910101111
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks 36655443322111616
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks 47788991010111112121313
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks 188776655443322
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks 299101011111212131314141515
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks 31010998877665544
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Brown University Brown University Bears 1 Keller Morrison '25 [1-14] Ali Mcintyre '27 [1-6]
Patience Gifford '27 [7-14]
Brown University Brown University Bears 2 Daniel Van Heeckeren '26 [1-6]
Jean-Luc Depardieu '27 [7-14]		 Anna Steffen '25 [1-6]
William Salerno '25 [7-14]
Brown University Brown University Bears 3 James Brock '28 [1-6]
Quinn Brighton '27 [7-14]		 Tucker Gibbs '27 [1-6]
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 1 Connor Mchugh '28 Caroline Felser '28
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 2 Tristan Mcdonald '28 Frankie Sparrow '27
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 3 Edward Herman '28 Ethan Martin '28
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 4 Jancy Grayson '28 Mackenzie Speece '28
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 1 Sean Morrison '27 [1-8, 11-12]
Emil Tullberg '25 [9-10, 13-14]		 Julia Overmyer '27 [1-6]
Kate Johnson '25 [7-8, 11-12]
Zara Bennett '28 [9-10, 13-14]
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 2 Tyler Winowiecki '27 [1-14] Nat Altuzar '27 [1-6]
Lilly Dubovsky '27 [7-8, 11-12]
Shannon Gondoly '25 [9-10, 13-14]
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 3 Emilia Perriera '28 [1-8, 11-12]
Olivia Lowthian '25 [9-10, 13-14]		 Caelan Haddock '25 [1-8, 11-12]
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1 David Vinogradov '28 [1-14] Tomas Riccio '28 [1-4, 9-14]
Sam Puleio '28 [5-8]
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2 Joey Richardson '28 Allison Nystrom '26
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 3 Meara Conley '28 Julian Henderson '27
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 1 Pierson Falk '28 Dean Balcirak '25
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 2 John Mason '28 Spencer Asofsky '25
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 3 Emaline Ouellette '28 Brigette Alves '25

Conditions — 09/07/2024 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 76%  ·  Pressure 1010.8 hPa

Temperature

68°F
↑ 72°F   ↓ 62°F
Feels like 68°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.3 kn
avg  ·  max 12.2 kn
Gusts to 17.5 kn
From WSW (237°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine8.3 hrs Humidity76% Pressure1010.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 8 kn · W 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Roger Williams: an underdogs’ day (−0.06)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.06 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.12
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.32 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Roger Williams by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (20 labelled days at Roger Williams).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →