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Coast Guard Invite

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Brown University Brown University Bears 2 47 47
2 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 54 54
3 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1 55 55
4 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 4 60 60
5 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 2 60 60
6 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 62 62
7 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 4 63 63
8 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 1 65 65
9 Brown University Brown University Bears 1 66 66
10 Brown University Brown University Bears 3 72 72
11 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 3 82 82
12 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 90 90
13 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2 90 90
14 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 5 97 97
15 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 4 98 98
16 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 3 106 106
17 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 2 107 107
18 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 1 121 121
19 Brown University Brown University Bears 4 125 125
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Brown University Brown University Bears 2 12 7 3 10 4 5 2 4 47 Tyler Lamm '28
Phoebe Hackett '28
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 15 1 1 12 2 6 7 10 54 Jack Flores '25
Nicole Morikawa '25
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1 4 4 6 3 11 9 10 8 55 David Vinogradov '28
Tomas Riccio '28
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 4 5 13 9 9 6 1 8 9 60 Ella Demand '28
Gabriella Fields '28
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 2 10 12 4 6 5 15 3 5 60 Owen Grainger '28
Spencer Asofsky '25
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 13 11 16 11 1 3 6 1 62 Adrien Bellanger '25
Margaret Klein '26
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 4 17 3 2 1 10 11 16 3 63 Clark Morris '26
Cody Lamoreux '27
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 1 6 10 7 2 8 14 1 17 65 Christopher Chwalk '28
Vanessa Reid '26
Brown University Brown University Bears 1 2 9 5 15 3 2 11 19 66 Savannah Young '25
Marin Soderberg '28
Brown University Brown University Bears 3 7 5 8 18 9 4 19 2 72 Emery Diemar '28
Sasha Gordon '28
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 3 9 18 10 8 7 12 4 14 82 Cameron Silvers '27
Emily Grevell '27
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 1 16 17 5 17 7 9 18 90 Oliver Keeves '28
Reddin Kehrli '27
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2 3 2 14 17 12 19 17 6 90 Joey Richardson '28
Sam Puleio '28
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 5 11 8 13 7 15 18 18 7 97 Caroline Odell '27 [1-5]
Peter Mcgonagle '25 [6-8]
Julian Henderson '27 [1-5]
Austin White '27 [6-8]
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 4 16 6 18 14 18 10 5 11 98 Ariana Schwartz '27
Ella Gibson '27
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 3 14 19 11 4 16 17 12 13 106 Meara Conley '28
Olivia Spada '28
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 2 8 15 12 16 13 13 15 15 107 Tatem Gee '27
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 1 18 14 15 13 19 16 14 12 121
Brown University Brown University Bears 4 19 17 19 19 14 8 13 16 125 Gabby Collins '28
Reese Corckran '28
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.080+0.08
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (12 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 111112222
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 222223333
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 333334444
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 444445555
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 11111111112121212
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 21212121213131313
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 31313131314141414
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 41414141415151515
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 51515151516161616
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels 155556666
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels 266667777
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams 11616161617171717
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams 21717171718181818
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams 31818181819191919
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams 4191919191111
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 177778888
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 288889999
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 3999910101010
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 41010101011111111

Conditions — 09/14/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 61%  ·  Pressure 1024.2 hPa

Temperature

76°F
↑ 80°F   ↓ 63°F
Feels like 78°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.6 kn
avg  ·  max 6.1 kn
Gusts to 15.6 kn
From ESE (121°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover13% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity61% Pressure1024.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 7 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Coast Guard: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.11 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.19
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−1.07 ± 0.18)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Coast Guard by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (57 labelled days at Coast Guard).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →