Tufts University '26
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.50 (fleet 3.50) | 123 of 328 | −0.03 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 14–18 (44%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2025 | 1 | 6–3 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 1 | 2–0 | — |
| Fall 2023 | 1 | 3–7 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 2–5 | — |
| Fall 2022 | 1 | 1–3 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (30 matches) the record is 12–18 against 14.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-18 | Norman Reid Team Race | skipper | 2.92 | 3.07 | 6–3 | 6.0 | +0.15 | 0.0 | 87% |
| 2023-10-22 | Franklin Lane Trophy Team Race | skipper | 2.39 | 1.17 | 3–7 | 5.1 | −1.22 | 1.8 | 98% |
| 2023-03-04 | McMerrick Cup | skipper | 2.03 | 2.00 | 2–5 | 2.0 | −0.03 | 0.0 | 68% |
| 2022-10-23 | Franklin Lane Trophy | skipper | 1.87 | 1.39 | 1–3 | 1.3 | −0.48 | 0.1 | 84% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Owen Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.6 | 3.52 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 6.2 | 3.55 |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Norman Reid Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 75% | — |
| The Hood Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 5.5 | 3.83 |
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.8 | 3.81 |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Open Atlantic Coast Championship Round 1A | Skipper | B | 6 | 11.7 | 2.96 |
| Open Atlantic Coast Championship Final | Skipper | B | 4 | 14.5 | 2.81 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 8.2 | 3.61 |
| Harry Anderson Jr. Regatta | Skipper | B | 12 | 8.8 | 3.69 |
| Coast Guard Invite | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.9 | 3.06 |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Open Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 90% | — |
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.5 | 3.05 |
| Owen Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.5 | 3.06 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | A | 9 | 5.7 | 3.96 |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale FJ Invite | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.3 | 3.31 |
| Sister Esther Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 4.5 | 3.37 |
| The Harvard Invitational | Skipper | A | 2 | 10.5 | 2.21 |
| Franklin Lane Trophy Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 30% | — |
| BU Invite Oct | Skipper | A | 9 | 4.2 | 2.84 |
| BU Invite | Skipper | A | 9 | 3.7 | 3.66 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| McMerrick Cup | Skipper | TR | 6 | 50% | — |
| Icebreaker Invitational | Skipper | B | 5 | 1.0 | — |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 3.2 | 4.61 |
| New York Maritime Fall Open | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.7 | 3.23 |
| NEISA Fundamental Symposium | Skipper | A | 3 | 4.3 | 2.28 |
| Mass Maritime Invite | Skipper | A | 5 | 3.8 | 2.92 |
| The Harvard FJ Invitational | Skipper | A | 10 | 10.0 | 1.80 |
| Franklin Lane Trophy | Skipper | TR | 4 | 25% | — |
| Bears Invite | Skipper | A | 3 | 17.0 | -0.21 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
