| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Boston College | Eagles | 9–1 |
| 2 |  |
Tufts University | Jumbos 3 | 8–2 |
| 3 | |
Tufts University | Jumbos 1 | 7–3 |
| 4 | |
Tufts University | Jumbos 2 | 3–7 |
| 5 |  |
Brown University | Bears | 2–8 |
| 6 |  |
Boston University | Terriers | 1–9 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 21,760 team race matches sailed before 2023-10-22, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 24 of 30 matches (80%) with a log-loss of 0.458 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.08 ± 0.33: a typical event, more orderly than 34% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tufts University Jumbos 3 | 6.81 | 9.50 | 8–2 | 4.0 | +2.68 | 7.4 | <1% |
| 3 | Tufts University Jumbos 1 | 8.44 | 8.24 | 7–3 | 7.3 | −0.20 | 0.0 | 76% |
| 1 | Boston College Eagles | 9.77 | 9.45 | 9–1 | 9.2 | −0.32 | 0.1 | 83% |
| 6 | Boston University Terriers | 5.60 | 5.03 | 1–9 | 1.6 | −0.57 | 0.2 | 84% |
| 5 | Brown University Bears | 6.32 | 5.70 | 2–8 | 2.9 | −0.62 | 0.4 | 87% |
| 4 | Tufts University Jumbos 2 | 7.33 | 6.10 | 3–7 | 5.1 | −1.22 | 1.8 | 98% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Larzelere | Tufts University | 2.36 | 5.05 | 8–2 | 4.0 | +2.68 | 7.4 | <1% |
| Adrien Bellanger | Tufts University | 2.42 | 2.22 | 7–3 | 7.3 | −0.20 | 0.0 | 76% |
| Peter Joslin | Boston College | 3.07 | 2.75 | 9–1 | 9.2 | −0.32 | 0.1 | 83% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | Boston University | 2.46 | 1.89 | 1–9 | 1.6 | −0.57 | 0.2 | 84% |
| Gavin Monaghan | Boston University | 1.82 | 1.25 | 1–9 | 1.6 | −0.57 | 0.2 | 84% |
| Richard Kalich | Boston University | 1.21 | 0.64 | 1–9 | 1.6 | −0.57 | 0.2 | 84% |
| Spencer Dellenbaugh | Brown University | 1.94 | 1.32 | 2–8 | 2.9 | −0.62 | 0.4 | 87% |
| Clark Morris | Tufts University | 2.39 | 1.17 | 3–7 | 5.1 | −1.22 | 1.8 | 98% |
| Meredith Broadus | Tufts University | 1.86 | 0.63 | 3–7 | 5.1 | −1.22 | 1.8 | 98% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Eagles | 3 | 1 | 2 | Bears | Terriers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College Eagles | 5–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos 3 | 9–6 | L | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | W | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos 1 | 9–6 | L | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | W | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos 2 | 9–6 | L | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | W | W |
| Brown University Bears | 1–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Boston University Terriers | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Eagles | 3 | 1 | 2 | Bears | Terriers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College Eagles | 4–1 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos 3 | 9–6 | L | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | L | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos 1 | 9–6 | L | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | L | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos 2 | 9–6 | L | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | L | W |
| Brown University Bears | 1–4 | L | W | W | W | ✕ | L |
| Boston University Terriers | 1–4 | L | L | L | L | W | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Jumbos 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Jumbos 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Terriers | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Jumbos 3 | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Bears | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Terriers | 1-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Jumbos 3 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Jumbos 1 | 2-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Jumbos 3 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Terriers | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Jumbos 2 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Bears | 2-4-5 |
| 9 | |
Eagles | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Jumbos 1 | 3-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Jumbos 3 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 2-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Jumbos 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Terriers | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Jumbos 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Jumbos 3 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Terriers | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Jumbos 3 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-4-5 |
| 17 | |
Jumbos 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Jumbos 2 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Terriers | 1-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Jumbos 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Eagles | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Jumbos 3 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Terriers | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Eagles | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Jumbos 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Terriers | 3-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Jumbos 3 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Eagles | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Terriers | 3-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Bears | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 1-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Jumbos 1 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Jumbos 3 | 2-4-6 |
| 28 | |
Terriers | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Bears | 2-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Eagles | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Jumbos 1 | 2-3-6 |
| 30 | |
Jumbos 3 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 2-3-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Boston College | Eagles | Jack Redmond '26 Peter Busch '26 Peter Joslin '26 |
Gabrielle Trinter '27 Grace Beneke '24 Chip Kreuzkamp '24 Kennedy Laureigh '26 |
|
Tufts University | Jumbos 3 | Adam Larzelere '25 Blake Vogel '26 Courtland Doyle '27 |
Sean Beaver '27 Harrison Vose '26 Cody Lamoreux '27 |
|
Tufts University | Jumbos 1 | Adrien Bellanger '25 Kurt Stuebe '27 Wyatt Bischoff '27 |
Lucy Belknap '25 Stefano Chiampo '26 Cindy Wang '25 |
|
Tufts University | Jumbos 2 | Clark Morris '26 Devon Owen '27 Meredith Broadus '25 |
Thomas Mazzeo '26 Nicole Morikawa '25 Matthew Caplan '25 |
|
Brown University | Bears | Grant Adam '23 Keller Morrison '25 Spencer Dellenbaugh '23 |
Mara Oancea '27 Lucian Sharpe '24 Anna Steffen '25 |
|
Boston University | Terriers | Elliott Mendenhall '25 Gavin Monaghan '26 Richard Kalich '26 |
Morgan Contrino '24 Rufus Burnes Heath '27 Sahil Khatnani '25 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
