Boston University '24
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 1.78 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.089 rating points from 195 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →| Season | Team | Rating | Range | League percentile |
Team percentile |
On team | Races | Team page |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | Boston University | -0.25 | 16.17 | 11.54 | 12 of 13 | 39 | Team page | |
| Fall 2023 | Boston University | -0.18 | 16.20 | 14.71 | 15 of 17 | 70 | Team page | |
| Spring 2023 | Boston University | -0.30 | 12.99 | 4.17 | 12 of 12 | 36 | Team page |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.46 | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 31–54 (36%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 3 | — | 20–12 |
| Fall 2023 | 2 | — | 1–21 |
| Spring 2023 | 2 | — | 10–21 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 7 graded regattas (85 matches) the record is 31–54 against 26.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+4.1). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 12 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-30 | Staake Trophy | crew | 2.53 | 1.26 | 6–6 | 8.0 | −1.27 | 2.0 | 98% |
| 2024-03-23 | BU Team Race | crew | 2.55 | 1.58 | 1–2 | 1.7 | −0.97 | 0.5 | 92% |
| 2024-03-16 | Ivan Geiger Team Race | crew | 2.41 | 3.96 | 13–4 | 8.5 | +1.55 | 4.9 | 1% |
| 2023-10-22 | Franklin Lane Trophy Team Race | crew | 2.46 | 1.89 | 1–9 | 1.6 | −0.57 | 0.2 | 84% |
| 2023-10-21 | Norman Reid Team Race | crew | 2.47 | -0.53 | 0–12 | 1.0 | ≤−3.00 | 1.6 | >99% |
| 2023-03-18 | Ivan Geiger Team Race | crew | 2.33 | 3.24 | 6–11 | 3.7 | +0.92 | 1.6 | 11% |
| 2023-03-11 | Wood Trophy Team Race | crew | 2.23 | 3.00 | 4–10 | 2.5 | +0.77 | 0.9 | 21% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's New England Fleet Race Championship Women's | Crew | A | 10 | 9.8 | -0.11 |
| Wick Trophy Womens event Women's | Crew | B | 8 | 10.0 | +0.02 |
| Western Women’s National Semi-finals Women's | Crew | A | 13 | 9.8 | +0.26 |
| Staake Trophy | Crew | TR | 12 | 50% | — |
| Southern Series 7 | Crew | A | 8 | 4.5 | +0.07 |
| Ivan Geiger Team Race | Crew | TR | 17 | 76% | — |
| BU Team Race | Crew | TR | 5 | 60% | — |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| The Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 4 | 10.2 | -0.09 |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's | Crew | B | 9 | 14.4 | -0.09 |
| Sister Esther Trophy | Crew | A | 14 | 9.7 | +0.02 |
| Regis Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 7 | 14.7 | -0.06 |
| Norman Reid Team Race | Crew | TR | 12 | 0% | — |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Crew | A | 5 | 12.0 | -0.09 |
| The George Warren Smith Trophy | Crew | A | 9 | 10.4 | -0.25 |
| Franklin Lane Trophy Team Race | Crew | TR | 10 | 10% | — |
| The Dark of Night | Crew | A | 2 | 4.0 | — |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Crew | B | 12 | 13.7 | -0.49 |
| 2024 Rose Bowl Regatta | Crew | B | 8 | 7.1 | -0.14 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Wood Trophy Team Race | Crew | TR | 14 | 29% | — |
| Southern 7 Fleet Race | Crew | A | 9 | 3.9 | +0.02 |
| George Morris Trophy | Crew | A | 8 | 7.8 | -0.00 |
| Ivan Geiger Team Race | Crew | TR | 17 | 35% | — |
| Emily Wick Women's | Crew | B | 14 | 10.4 | +0.10 |
| Central Series 2 @ MSM | Crew | A | 5 | 7.0 | -0.05 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Dinghy Tournament Women's | Crew | B | 9 | 12.3 | — |
| Women's ACC's Round 1B Women's | Crew | B | 10 | 14.6 | — |
| Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 12 | 11.8 | — |
| Sister Esther Open | Crew | A | 12 | 12.0 | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Morgan Contrino |  Barnstable HS |
'20 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
