| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Boston College | Eagles | 11–1 |
| 2 |  |
Brown University | Bears | 8–4 |
| 3 |  |
Tufts University | Jumbos 2 | 6–6 |
| 4 | |
Tufts University | Jumbos 1 | 5–7 |
| 5 |  |
Boston University | Terriers | 0–12 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 21,730 team race matches sailed before 2023-10-21, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 26 of 30 matches (87%) with a log-loss of 0.325 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.15 ± 0.31: a typical event, more orderly than 60% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boston College Eagles | 1 | 10.03 school +0.26, home +0.42 | Ian Hopkins Guerra / Emily Marlas 2.90 Peter Joslin / Kennedy Laureigh 3.03 Peter Busch / Lourdes Gallo 3.37 | 91% | 11–1 (92%) | +0.1 |
| 2 | Brown University Bears | 2 | 8.77 school +0.28 | Ethan Simpson / Janelle Li Katherine Mcnamara / Brianna Ross 2.65 Blake Behrens / Corinne Harrison | 70% | 8–4 (67%) | −0.3 |
| 3 | Tufts University Jumbos 2 | 3 | 7.81 school +0.10 | Wyatt Bischoff / Cindy Wang Adrien Bellanger / Lucy Belknap 2.39 Kurt Stuebe / Stefano Chiampo | 50% | 6–6 (50%) | +0.0 |
| 4 | Tufts University Jumbos 1 | 4 | 6.86 school +0.10 | Haley Andreasen / Leo Terry 2.14 Ella Hubbard / Alessandra Torres 2.48 Samantha Jensen / Lilly Ladd 2.08 | 31% | 5–7 (42%) | +1.3 |
| 5 | Boston University Terriers | 5 | 5.55 school +0.08 | Elliott Mendenhall / Morgan Contrino 2.47 Gavin Monaghan / Rufus Burnes Heath 1.75 Richard Kalich / Sahil Khatnani | 9% | 0–12 (0%) | −1.1 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tufts University Jumbos 1 | 6.86 | 7.62 | 5–7 | 3.7 | +0.76 | 0.7 | 25% |
| 1 | Boston College Eagles | 10.03 | 10.14 | 11–1 | 10.9 | +0.11 | 0.0 | 70% |
| 3 | Tufts University Jumbos 2 | 7.81 | 7.81 | 6–6 | 6.0 | +0.01 | 0.0 | 65% |
| 2 | Brown University Bears | 8.77 | 8.56 | 8–4 | 8.3 | −0.21 | 0.1 | 76% |
| 5 | Boston University Terriers | 5.55 | 2.55 | 0–12 | 1.0 | ≤−3.00 | 1.6 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haley Andreasen | Tufts University | 2.14 | 2.91 | 5–7 | 3.7 | +0.76 | 0.7 | 25% |
| Peter Joslin | Boston College | 3.03 | 3.14 | 11–1 | 10.9 | +0.11 | 0.0 | 70% |
| Adrien Bellanger | Tufts University | 2.39 | 2.39 | 6–6 | 6.0 | +0.01 | 0.0 | 65% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | Boston University | 2.47 | -0.53 | 0–12 | 1.0 | ≤−3.00 | 1.6 | >99% |
| Gavin Monaghan | Boston University | 1.75 | -1.25 | 0–12 | 1.0 | ≤−3.00 | 1.6 | >99% |
| Richard Kalich | Boston University | 0.97 | -2.03 | 0–12 | 1.0 | ≤−3.00 | 1.6 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Eagles | Bears | 2 | 1 | Terriers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College Eagles | 4–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Brown University Bears | 3–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos 2 | 3–5 | L | L | ✕ | ✕ | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos 1 | 3–5 | L | L | ✕ | ✕ | W |
| Boston University Terriers | 0–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Eagles | Bears | 2 | 1 | Terriers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College Eagles | 3–1 | ✕ | L | W | W | W |
| Brown University Bears | 3–1 | W | ✕ | L | L | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos 2 | 4–4 | L | W | ✕ | ✕ | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos 1 | 4–4 | L | W | ✕ | ✕ | W |
| Boston University Terriers | 0–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Eagles | Bears | 2 | 1 | Terriers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College Eagles | 4–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Brown University Bears | 2–2 | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos 2 | 4–4 | L | L | ✕ | ✕ | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos 1 | 4–4 | L | L | ✕ | ✕ | W |
| Boston University Terriers | 0–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Eagles | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Jumbos 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Terriers | 3-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Eagles | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Terriers | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Jumbos 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Eagles | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Terriers | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Jumbos 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Jumbos 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Jumbos 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Terriers | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Bears | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Jumbos 1 | 2-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Eagles | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Jumbos 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Terriers | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Eagles | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Terriers | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Jumbos 1 | 4-5-6 DNF |
| 16 | |
Bears | 2-4-6 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 1-3-5 DSQ |
| 17 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Terriers | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Jumbos 2 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Jumbos 1 | 1-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Jumbos 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Terriers | 3-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Jumbos 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 21 | |
Eagles | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 22 | |
Jumbos 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Terriers | 3-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Eagles | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 2-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Terriers | 3-4-5 |
| 25 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Jumbos 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Jumbos 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 27 | |
Eagles | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Terriers | 3-4-6 |
| 28 | |
Jumbos 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Jumbos 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Terriers | 3-4-6 |
| 30 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Jumbos 1 | 3-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Boston College | Eagles | Ian Hopkins Guerra '26 Peter Busch '26 Peter Joslin '26 |
Emily Marlas '26 Lourdes Gallo '24 Kennedy Laureigh '26 |
|
Brown University | Bears | Blake Behrens '27 Ethan Simpson '27 Katherine Mcnamara '26 |
Corinne Harrison '27 Janelle Li '25 Brianna Ross '26 |
|
Tufts University | Jumbos 2 | Adrien Bellanger '25 Kurt Stuebe '27 Wyatt Bischoff '27 |
Lucy Belknap '25 Stefano Chiampo '26 Cindy Wang '25 |
|
Tufts University | Jumbos 1 | Ella Hubbard '26 Haley Andreasen '25 Samantha Jensen '24 |
Alessandra Torres '24 Leo Terry '25 Lilly Ladd '26 |
|
Boston University | Terriers | Elliott Mendenhall '25 Gavin Monaghan '26 Richard Kalich '26 |
Morgan Contrino '24 Rufus Burnes Heath '27 Sahil Khatnani '25 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
