Tufts University '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.01 (fleet 2.77) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 19–33 (37%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 2 | 13–17 | — |
| Fall 2023 | 1 | 5–7 | — |
| Fall 2021 | 1 | 1–9 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (52 matches) the record is 19–33 against 19.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-30 | Jumbo Team Race | skipper | 2.25 | 2.71 | 8–10 | 6.3 | +0.46 | 0.6 | 26% |
| 2024-03-09 | Franny Charles Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.21 | 0.60 | 5–7 | 7.6 | −1.60 | 3.0 | 99% |
| 2023-10-21 | Norman Reid Team Race | skipper | 2.14 | 2.91 | 5–7 | 3.7 | +0.76 | 0.7 | 25% |
| 2021-10-24 | Lane Trophy Team Race | skipper | 1.31 | 0.83 | 1–9 | 1.5 | −0.48 | 0.2 | 81% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 10.7 | 2.59 |
| Women's Urn Trophy/NEISA Women’s Fall Champs Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 7.0 | 3.30 |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Finals Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 12.2 | 2.69 |
| Women's ACC Round 1A Women's | Skipper | A | 1 | 7.0 | — |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Trophy 2024 Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 13.1 | 2.18 |
| Regis Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 11.7 | 2.21 |
| The 26th Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 9.0 | 2.94 |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's New England Fleet Race Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 6 | 9.3 | 2.98 |
| Western Women’s National Semi-finals Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 11.1 | 2.87 |
| St. Mary's Women's Inter-Conference Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.5 | 3.18 |
| Jumbo Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 44% | — |
| Franny Charles Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 12 | 42% | — |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 12.8 | 2.68 |
| Women's ACC Round 1A Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 6.6 | 3.37 |
| The Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 8.6 | 2.81 |
| Regis Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 8.1 | 2.77 |
| Norman Reid Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 42% | — |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 5 | 8.0 | 3.17 |
| The Harvard Invitational | Skipper | A | 2 | 5.0 | 3.89 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Tufts Alumni Regatta 2023-Larks | Crew | A | 4 | 13.5 | -0.00 |
| Rhody the Riveter Women's Fleet Race Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 4.8 | 2.20 |
| Emily Wick Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 8.4 | 2.08 |
| 2023 Central Series 4 | Skipper | B | 4 | 3.8 | 3.36 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 9.6 | 2.62 |
| Tufts Invite | Skipper | A | 3 | 3.3 | 2.58 |
| The 25th Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 12.5 | 2.25 |
| Lark Invite | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.0 | 2.84 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| J70 Invite #3 Keelboat | Crew | A | 13 | 5.6 | — |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 8.6 | 2.17 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Lark Invite | Skipper | A | 6 | 9.7 | 2.44 |
| Lane Trophy Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 10% | — |
| Harvard Invitational | Skipper | A | 10 | 11.7 | 0.78 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
