Tufts Alumni Regatta 2023-Larks

HostTufts
Date05/20/2023
TypeNOT ALLOWED Promotional
BoatLark
Scoring3 Divisions

Analysis

#	School	Team	A	B	C	TOT
1	Tufts University	Jumbos 19	9	20	15	44
2	Tufts University	Jumbos 5	44	22	24	90
3	Tufts University	Jumbos 14	46	25	20	91
4	Tufts University	Jumbos 21	23	47	24	94
5	Tufts University	Jumbos 22	21	23	51	95
6	Tufts University	Jumbos 8	46	50	12	108
7	Tufts University	Jumbos 18	33	27	53	113
8	Tufts University	Jumbos 4	20	52	51	123
9	Tufts University	Jumbos 15	39	41	52	132
10	Tufts University	Jumbos 9	37	31	66	134
11	Tufts University	Jumbos 16	35	32	68	135
12	Tufts University	Jumbos 12	61	20	57	138
13	Tufts University	Jumbos 17	60	54	33	147
14	Tufts University	Jumbos 3	51	74	24	149
15	Tufts University	Jumbos 7	29	68	53	150
16	Tufts University	Jumbos 1	54	68	34	156
17	Tufts University	Jumbos 11	73	66	31	170
18	Tufts University	Jumbos 13	38	45	92	175
19	Tufts University	Jumbos 20	73	53	66	192
20	Tufts University	Jumbos 2	53	65	75	193
21	Tufts University	Jumbos 10	79	79	50	208
22	Tufts University	Jumbos 6	92	54	71	217

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Tufts University	Jumbos 19	1	1	5	2	9	Steve Kirkpatrick '90 Jane Kirkpatrick '90
Tufts University	Jumbos 4	4	3	7	6	20	Bill Lynn '23 Hannah Lynn '23
Tufts University	Jumbos 22	2	15	3	1	21	David Mendelblatt '92 Josh Gleason '92
Tufts University	Jumbos 21	7	7	6	3	23	Chip Terry '91 Leo Terry '25
Tufts University	Jumbos 7	6	2	11	10	29	Heather Gregg () '23 Matthew Caplan '25
Tufts University	Jumbos 18	14	11	1	7	33	Jane Kirk O'Conner '90 Lucy Belknap '25
Tufts University	Jumbos 16	13	9	4	9	35	Rich Harries '90 Chrissy Fain '91
Tufts University	Jumbos 9	5	16	2	14	37	Keith Taboada () '23 Annabel De Alessi '25
Tufts University	Jumbos 13	8	13	9	8	38	John Tagliamonte '90 Grace Olsen '16
Tufts University	Jumbos 15	18	8	8	5	39	Joe Bardenheier '90 Laura Goldberg '95
Tufts University	Jumbos 5	11	4	17	12	44	George Atwood '23 Maisie Macgillivray '25
Tufts University	Jumbos 8	9	14	10	13	46	Mark Hilman () '23 Marley Hilman '21
Tufts University	Jumbos 14	10	5	20	11	46	Tom Kirk () '23 Karen Renzulli Fallon '23
Tufts University	Jumbos 3	3	17	14	17	51	Joe Petrucci '23 Stefano Chiampo '26
Tufts University	Jumbos 2	15	21	13	4	53	Douglas Mckeige '23 Jan Selby () '23
Tufts University	Jumbos 1	17	10	12	15	54	Sam Altreuter '23 Haley Andreasen '25
Tufts University	Jumbos 17	12	12	16	20	60	Eric Heller '90 Julia Shannon-Grillo '24
Tufts University	Jumbos 12	16	6	21	18	61	Joe Berkeley () '23 Blake Vogel '26
Tufts University	Jumbos 11	19	18	15	21	73	David Himmel () '23 Stephanie Kushner () '23
Tufts University	Jumbos 20	20	19	18	16	73	Stephen Braverman '91 Dorothy Waskow '22
Tufts University	Jumbos 10	21	20	19	19	79	Jom Kirk () '23 Lauren Eisele () '23
Tufts University	Jumbos 6	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNF	92	Michael Edelman '90 Nihal Pai '20

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Tufts University	Jumbos 12	3	5	7	5	20	Timothy Fallon '97 Victor Ansart '14
Tufts University	Jumbos 19	6	1	6	7	20	J.R. Maxwell '03 Deane Madson '03
Tufts University	Jumbos 5	8	2	2	10	22	Josh Adams '94 Carolyn Garth '94
Tufts University	Jumbos 22	5	6	9	3	23	Brendan Shattuck '05 Martha Glenn '97
Tufts University	Jumbos 14	4	16	1	4	25	Charles Siegal '99 Meghan Siegal '99
Tufts University	Jumbos 18	1	11	13	2	27	Adam Deermount '01 Lisa Keith '01
Tufts University	Jumbos 9	15	7	3	6	31	Robert Richards '95 Trent Richards '23
Tufts University	Jumbos 16	2	10	8	12	32	Carlos Lenz '00 Annecy Kagan '26
Tufts University	Jumbos 15	14	14	5	8	41	Holt Condon '00 Taylor Henderson '23
Tufts University	Jumbos 13	17	4	4	20	45	Kyle Shattuck '99 Maia Shattuck '23
Tufts University	Jumbos 21	10	8	14	15	47	A.J. Crane '04 Kristen Ghoussaini '04
Tufts University	Jumbos 8	11	9	11	19	50	Jenny Scarborough '95 Elizabeth Mccarthy '95
Tufts University	Jumbos 4	18	15	10	9	52	Greg Stevens '93 Dorothy Waskow '22
Tufts University	Jumbos 20	20	3	12	18	53	Matt Cohen '03 Ariel Babcock '04
Tufts University	Jumbos 17	7	19	17	11	54	Jen Provan '01 Laurin Derrick '01
Tufts University	Jumbos 6	12	12	16	14	54	Alix Hahn '94 Stephanie Keefe Martin '94
Tufts University	Jumbos 2	22	22	20	1	65	Josh Nadel '93 Dorothy Waskow '22
Tufts University	Jumbos 11	9	21	DNS	13	66	Jago Macleod '96 Chelsea Wheeler Olney '23
Tufts University	Jumbos 1	13	20	19	16	68	Kerry Connell '93 Shea Smith '25
Tufts University	Jumbos 7	19	13	15	21	68	Julie Brenninkmeyer '99 Katie Hall '99
Tufts University	Jumbos 3	21	18	18	17	74	Bob Patterson '93 Heidi Goethert '93
Tufts University	Jumbos 10	16	17	DNS	DNS	79	Nick Von Der Wense '95 Finn Von Der Wense '23

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Tufts University	Jumbos 8	1	1	6	4	12	Tomas Hornos '10 Henry Tindall '25
Tufts University	Jumbos 19	3	6	4	2	15	Will Haeger '14 Rose O'Neal '22
Tufts University	Jumbos 14	4	9	1	6	20	William Hutchings '13 Magdelaina Putnam '25
Tufts University	Jumbos 21	2	19	2	1	24	Willem Sandberg '14 Tori Porter '23
Tufts University	Jumbos 5	7	4	8	5	24	Kaity Storck Potts '08 Lyndsey Gibbons-Neff '08
Tufts University	Jumbos 3	8	8	5	3	24	David Siegal '06 Harrison Vose '26
Tufts University	Jumbos 11	5	5	12	9	31	Massimo Soriano '12 Sam Madden '15
Tufts University	Jumbos 17	9	3	7	14	33	Donald Shea '23 Amelia Quinn '13
Tufts University	Jumbos 1	16	7	3	8	34	Jeff Cruise '06 Katie Cruise '08
Tufts University	Jumbos 10	11	15	14	10	50	Margaret Rew '11 Sara Makaretz '14
Tufts University	Jumbos 4	6	2	DNS	20	51	Michael Easton '08 Lindsay Easton '23
Tufts University	Jumbos 22	10	13	17	11	51	Katherine Levinson '15 Sally Levinson '11
Tufts University	Jumbos 15	13	12	11	16	52	Mariel Marchand '13 Sara Makaretz '14
Tufts University	Jumbos 18	14	11	13	15	53	Natalie Salk '13 Sara Carnahan '11
Tufts University	Jumbos 7	17	20	9	7	53	Andrew Criezis '10 Jennifer Potts '10
Tufts University	Jumbos 12	18	17	10	12	57	Will Peletteri '12 Caroline Ambros '17
Tufts University	Jumbos 9	12	16	15	DNS	66	Meghan Pesch '11 Victoria Eastman '11
Tufts University	Jumbos 20	19	14	16	17	66	Julie Pringle '14 Jamie Maffeo '15
Tufts University	Jumbos 16	21	10	18	19	68	Albert Nichols '13
Tufts University	Jumbos 6	15	18	20	18	71	Baker Potts '09 No Show
Tufts University	Jumbos 2	20	DNS	19	13	75	Jeff Cruise '06 Katie Cruise '08
Tufts University	Jumbos 13	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	92	John Evans '13 Carissa Harrison '23

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.180+0.18

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (40 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A
Tufts University Jumbos 1	1	1	1	1
Tufts University Jumbos 10	10	10	10	10
Tufts University Jumbos 11	11	11	11	11
Tufts University Jumbos 12	12	12	12	12
Tufts University Jumbos 13	13	13	13	13
Tufts University Jumbos 14	23	23	23	23
Tufts University Jumbos 15	15	15	15	15
Tufts University Jumbos 16	16	16	16	16
Tufts University Jumbos 17	17	17	17	17
Tufts University Jumbos 18	18	18	18	18
Tufts University Jumbos 19	19	19	19	19
Tufts University Jumbos 2	2	2	2	2
Tufts University Jumbos 20	20	20	20	20
Tufts University Jumbos 21	21	21	21	21
Tufts University Jumbos 22	22	22	22	22
Tufts University Jumbos 3	3	3	3	3
Tufts University Jumbos 4	4	4	4	4
Tufts University Jumbos 5	5	5	5	5
Tufts University Jumbos 6	6	6	6	6
Tufts University Jumbos 7	7	7	7	7
Tufts University Jumbos 8	8	8	8	8
Tufts University Jumbos 9	9	9	9	9

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B
Tufts University Jumbos 1	1	1	1	1
Tufts University Jumbos 10	10	10	10	10
Tufts University Jumbos 11	11	11	11	11
Tufts University Jumbos 12	12	12	12	12
Tufts University Jumbos 13	13	13	13	13
Tufts University Jumbos 14	23	23	23	23
Tufts University Jumbos 15	15	15	15	15
Tufts University Jumbos 16	16	16	16	16
Tufts University Jumbos 17	17	17	17	17
Tufts University Jumbos 18	18	18	18	18
Tufts University Jumbos 19	19	19	19	19
Tufts University Jumbos 2	2	2	2	2
Tufts University Jumbos 20	20	20	20	20
Tufts University Jumbos 21	21	21	21	21
Tufts University Jumbos 22	22	22	22	22
Tufts University Jumbos 3	3	3	3	3
Tufts University Jumbos 4	4	4	4	4
Tufts University Jumbos 5	5	5	5	5
Tufts University Jumbos 6	6	6	6	6
Tufts University Jumbos 7	7	7	7	7
Tufts University Jumbos 8	8	8	8	8
Tufts University Jumbos 9	9	9	9	9

Division C

Team	1C	2C	3C	4C
Tufts University Jumbos 1	1	1	1	1
Tufts University Jumbos 10	10	10	10	10
Tufts University Jumbos 11	11	11	11	11
Tufts University Jumbos 12	12	12	12	12
Tufts University Jumbos 13	13	13	13	13
Tufts University Jumbos 14	23	23	23	23
Tufts University Jumbos 15	15	15	15	15
Tufts University Jumbos 16	16	16	16	16
Tufts University Jumbos 17	17	17	17	17
Tufts University Jumbos 18	18	18	18	18
Tufts University Jumbos 19	19	19	19	19
Tufts University Jumbos 2	2	2	2	2
Tufts University Jumbos 20	20	20	20	20
Tufts University Jumbos 21	21	21	21	21
Tufts University Jumbos 22	22	22	22	22
Tufts University Jumbos 3	3	3	3	3
Tufts University Jumbos 4	4	4	4	4
Tufts University Jumbos 5	5	5	5	5
Tufts University Jumbos 6	6	6	6	6
Tufts University Jumbos 7	7	7	7	7
Tufts University Jumbos 8	8	8	8	8
Tufts University Jumbos 9	9	9	9	9

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Tufts University	Sam Altreuter '23	Haley Andreasen '25
Jumbos 1	Kerry Connell '93	Shea Smith '25
	Jeff Cruise '06	Katie Cruise '08
Tufts University	Jom Kirk () '23	Lauren Eisele () '23
Jumbos 10	Nick Von Der Wense '95	Finn Von Der Wense '23
	Margaret Rew '11	Sara Makaretz '14
Tufts University	David Himmel () '23	Stephanie Kushner () '23
Jumbos 11	Jago Macleod '96	Chelsea Wheeler Olney '23
	Massimo Soriano '12	Sam Madden '15
Tufts University	Joe Berkeley () '23	Blake Vogel '26
Jumbos 12	Timothy Fallon '97	Victor Ansart '14
	Will Peletteri '12	Caroline Ambros '17
Tufts University	John Tagliamonte '90	Grace Olsen '16
Jumbos 13	Kyle Shattuck '99	Maia Shattuck '23
	John Evans '13	Carissa Harrison '23
Tufts University	Tom Kirk () '23	Karen Renzulli Fallon '23
Jumbos 14	Charles Siegal '99	Meghan Siegal '99
	William Hutchings '13	Magdelaina Putnam '25
Tufts University	Joe Bardenheier '90	Laura Goldberg '95
Jumbos 15	Holt Condon '00	Taylor Henderson '23
	Mariel Marchand '13	Sara Makaretz '14
Tufts University	Rich Harries '90	Chrissy Fain '91
Jumbos 16	Carlos Lenz '00	Annecy Kagan '26
	Albert Nichols '13
Tufts University	Eric Heller '90	Julia Shannon-Grillo '24
Jumbos 17	Jen Provan '01	Laurin Derrick '01
	Donald Shea '23	Amelia Quinn '13
Tufts University	Jane Kirk O'Conner '90	Lucy Belknap '25
Jumbos 18	Adam Deermount '01	Lisa Keith '01
	Natalie Salk '13	Sara Carnahan '11
Tufts University	Steve Kirkpatrick '90	Jane Kirkpatrick '90
Jumbos 19	J.R. Maxwell '03	Deane Madson '03
	Will Haeger '14	Rose O'Neal '22
Tufts University	Douglas Mckeige '23	Jan Selby () '23
Jumbos 2	Josh Nadel '93	Dorothy Waskow '22
	Jeff Cruise '06	Katie Cruise '08
Tufts University	Stephen Braverman '91	Dorothy Waskow '22
Jumbos 20	Matt Cohen '03	Ariel Babcock '04
	Julie Pringle '14	Jamie Maffeo '15
Tufts University	Chip Terry '91	Leo Terry '25
Jumbos 21	A.J. Crane '04	Kristen Ghoussaini '04
	Willem Sandberg '14	Tori Porter '23
Tufts University	David Mendelblatt '92	Josh Gleason '92
Jumbos 22	Brendan Shattuck '05	Martha Glenn '97
	Katherine Levinson '15	Sally Levinson '11
Tufts University	Joe Petrucci '23	Stefano Chiampo '26
Jumbos 3	Bob Patterson '93	Heidi Goethert '93
	David Siegal '06	Harrison Vose '26
Tufts University	Bill Lynn '23	Hannah Lynn '23
Jumbos 4	Greg Stevens '93	Dorothy Waskow '22
	Michael Easton '08	Lindsay Easton '23
Tufts University	George Atwood '23	Maisie Macgillivray '25
Jumbos 5	Josh Adams '94	Carolyn Garth '94
	Kaity Storck Potts '08	Lyndsey Gibbons-Neff '08
Tufts University	Michael Edelman '90	Nihal Pai '20
Jumbos 6	Alix Hahn '94	Stephanie Keefe Martin '94
	Baker Potts '09	No Show
Tufts University	Heather Gregg () '23	Matthew Caplan '25
Jumbos 7	Julie Brenninkmeyer '99	Katie Hall '99
	Andrew Criezis '10	Jennifer Potts '10
Tufts University	Mark Hilman () '23	Marley Hilman '21
Jumbos 8	Jenny Scarborough '95	Elizabeth Mccarthy '95
	Tomas Hornos '10	Henry Tindall '25
Tufts University	Keith Taboada () '23	Annabel De Alessi '25
Jumbos 9	Robert Richards '95	Trent Richards '23
	Meghan Pesch '11	Victoria Eastman '11

Conditions — 05/20/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 86% · Pressure 1019.9 hPa

Temperature

62°F

↑ 65°F ↓ 59°F

Feels like 61°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

7.4 kn

avg · max 10.7 kn

Gusts to 21.0 kn

From SE (130°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine1.2 hrs Humidity86% Pressure1019.9 hPa Rain0.56 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Tufts: a typical day (−0.01)

Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.

Fleet adjustment −0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.02

Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.09 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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