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Tufts Alumni Regatta 2023-Larks — Analysis

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* This regatta is not official yet. Ratings marked * are from the last weekly update and have not absorbed this event; the performance columns use the results posted so far, and everything refreshes as scoring is finalised.

Performance rating answers one question for each skipper: holding every other skipper's rating fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? It is the maximum-likelihood rating under the same Plackett–Luce model that produces the power rankings (how accurate it is), with each opponent fixed at their rating from the last rated week before this event (2023-W20). Substitute skippers are scored only on the races they sailed, and races the boat did not finish (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out.

Percentile places a rating among the 2,441 ICSA skippers who were rated within the year before this event, so it reads as “better than X% of the skippers racing in this league right now”. The arrow shows where the sailor stood going in and where this performance would put them.

Surprise is how many bits more surprising the sailor's finishes were at their pre-event rating than at their performance rating (0 = exactly as expected). P(this good or better) simulates the regatta 3,000 times with the sailor at their pre-event rating against the actual fleet, and reports how often they would score this many points or fewer in the races they skippered. Races in one regatta are not independent, so each simulation also gives every skipper a good or bad regatta, form that drifts from race to race, and the speed of each boat the rotation puts them in (why). Low means an unusually good regatta, high means an unusually poor one. It deliberately ignores how rivals actually sailed, so it agrees with the performance rating rather than with the division finish, which also depends on everyone else's day. Ratings are shown on the rankings scale (model rating × 100). Only skippers are rated; crews are not part of the model.

  • n no rating before this event — the model's estimate from this week is used as the baseline.
  • u not rated by the model — the division median is used as the baseline.

Division A  22 boats · 4 races

Fin Skipper School Races Rating
before*		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.		 Rating
after*
1 Steve Kirkpatrick '90 Tufts University Jumbos 19 4/4 215* 375 +160 70th → 95th 3.5 3% 2.2 / 7.5 306*
2 Bill Lynn '23 Tufts University Jumbos 4 4/4 190n* 246 +56 66th → 76th 0.6 28% 5.0 / 8.6 190*
3 David Mendelblatt '92 Tufts University Jumbos 22 4/4 160n* 200 +40 59th → 68th 0.3 23% 5.2 / 9.6 160*
4 Chip Terry '91 Tufts University Jumbos 21 4/4 174n* 227 +53 62nd → 73rd 0.6 30% 5.8 / 9.2 174*
5 Heather Gregg () '23 Tufts University Jumbos 7 4/4 149n* 180 +32 57th → 64th 0.2 36% 7.2 / 9.9 149*
6 Jane Kirk O'Conner '90 Tufts University Jumbos 18 4/4 129n* 153 +24 52nd → 57th 0.1 37% 8.2 / 10.5 129*
7 Rich Harries '90 Tufts University Jumbos 16 4/4 145n* 154 +9 56th → 58th 0.0 44% 8.8 / 10.1 145*
8 Keith Taboada () '23 Tufts University Jumbos 9 4/4 117n* 122 +6 49th → 51st 0.0 39% 9.2 / 11.2 117*
9 John Tagliamonte '90 Tufts University Jumbos 13 4/4 77* 152 +75 40th → 57th 1.2 28% 9.5 / 12.2 144*
10 Joe Bardenheier '90 Tufts University Jumbos 15 4/4 107n* 108 +1 47th → 48th 0.0 42% 9.8 / 11.1 107*
11 George Atwood '23 Tufts University Jumbos 5 4/4 100n* 97 -3 45th → 45th 0.0 48% 11.0 / 11.4 100*
12 Mark Hilman () '23 Tufts University Jumbos 8 4/4 113n* 114 +1 48th → 49th 0.0 57% 11.5 / 10.8 113*
12 Tom Kirk () '23 Tufts University Jumbos 14 4/4 75n* 59 -16 40th → 35th 0.1 45% 11.5 / 12.2 75*
14 Joe Petrucci '23 Tufts University Jumbos 3 4/4 77n* 62 -15 40th → 36th 0.1 54% 12.8 / 12.2 77*
15 Douglas Mckeige '23 Tufts University Jumbos 2 4/4 45n* 4 -42 32nd → 23rd 0.3 51% 13.2 / 13.0 45*
16 Sam Altreuter '23 Tufts University Jumbos 1 4/4 83n* 72 -11 41st → 39th 0.0 60% 13.5 / 12.1 83*
17 Eric Heller '90 Tufts University Jumbos 17 4/4 52n* 23 -28 34th → 27th 0.2 62% 15.0 / 13.1 52*
18 Joe Berkeley () '23 Tufts University Jumbos 12 4/4 30n* -15 -45 29th → 20th 0.4 61% 15.2 / 13.6 30*
19 David Himmel () '23 Tufts University Jumbos 11 4/4 9n* -46 -55 24th → 14th 0.7 78% 18.2 / 14.0 9*
19 Stephen Braverman '91 Tufts University Jumbos 20 4/4 21n* -21 -41 27th → 19th 0.5 77% 18.2 / 14.1 21*
21 Jom Kirk () '23 Tufts University Jumbos 10 4/4 -11n* -75 -64 21st → 9th 1.0 84% 19.8 / 14.9 -11*
22 Michael Edelman '90 Tufts University Jumbos 6 4/4 93* — — 43rd → — 0.0 >99% 23.0 / 11.7 —*

Division B  22 boats · 4 races

Fin Skipper School Races Rating
before*		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.		 Rating
after*
1 J.R. Maxwell '03 Tufts University Jumbos 19 4/4 196n* 274 +79 67th → 82nd 1.2 24% 5.0 / 9.1 196*
1 Timothy Fallon '97 Tufts University Jumbos 12 4/4 187n* 276 +88 65th → 82nd 1.5 22% 5.0 / 9.2 187*
3 Josh Adams '94 Tufts University Jumbos 5 4/4 178n* 256 +78 64th → 78th 1.2 25% 5.5 / 9.5 178*
4 Brendan Shattuck '05 Tufts University Jumbos 22 4/4 175n* 251 +75 63rd → 77th 1.1 25% 5.8 / 9.8 175*
5 Charles Siegal '99 Tufts University Jumbos 14 4/4 153n* 197 +44 57th → 67th 0.4 22% 6.2 / 10.6 153*
6 Adam Deermount '01 Tufts University Jumbos 18 4/4 151n* 198 +47 57th → 68th 0.5 26% 6.8 / 10.6 151*
7 Robert Richards '95 Tufts University Jumbos 9 4/4 153n* 201 +48 57th → 68th 0.5 35% 7.8 / 10.4 153*
8 Carlos Lenz '00 Tufts University Jumbos 16 4/4 147n* 198 +51 56th → 68th 0.6 35% 8.0 / 10.6 147*
9 Holt Condon '00 Tufts University Jumbos 15 4/4 130n* 158 +28 53rd → 59th 0.2 47% 10.2 / 11.0 130*
10 Kyle Shattuck '99 Tufts University Jumbos 13 4/4 175* 97 -78 63rd → 45th 1.7 69% 11.2 / 9.5 128*
11 A.J. Crane '04 Tufts University Jumbos 21 4/4 113n* 136 +23 48th → 54th 0.1 52% 11.8 / 11.7 113*
12 Jenny Scarborough '95 Tufts University Jumbos 8 4/4 101n* 124 +23 46th → 51st 0.1 55% 12.5 / 12.0 101*
13 Greg Stevens '93 Tufts University Jumbos 4 4/4 101n* 118 +18 45th → 50th 0.1 58% 13.0 / 11.9 101*
14 Matt Cohen '03 Tufts University Jumbos 20 4/4 214* 66 -148 70th → 37th 7.7 90% 13.2 / 8.1 127*
15 Alix Hahn '94 Tufts University Jumbos 6 4/4 96n* 105 +9 44th → 47th 0.0 58% 13.5 / 12.3 96*
15 Jen Provan '01 Tufts University Jumbos 17 4/4 76n* 70 -6 40th → 38th 0.0 53% 13.5 / 12.8 76*
17 Josh Nadel '93 Tufts University Jumbos 2 4/4 -25n* -155 -130 18th → 1st 1.7 48% 16.2 / 15.9 -25*
18 Jago Macleod '96 Tufts University Jumbos 11 4/4 64n* 39 -25 37th → 31st 0.1 71% 16.5 / 13.2 64*
19 Julie Brenninkmeyer '99 Tufts University Jumbos 7 4/4 41n* 35 -7 31st → 30th 0.0 70% 17.0 / 13.8 41*
19 Kerry Connell '93 Tufts University Jumbos 1 4/4 42n* 15 -27 31st → 25th 0.2 70% 17.0 / 13.9 42*
21 Bob Patterson '93 Tufts University Jumbos 3 4/4 33n* 15 -18 30th → 25th 0.1 79% 18.5 / 14.2 33*
22 Nick Von Der Wense '95 Tufts University Jumbos 10 4/4 79n* 73 -6 41st → 39th 0.0 92% 19.8 / 12.9 79*

Division C  22 boats · 4 races

Fin Skipper School Races Rating
before*		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.		 Rating
after*
1 Tomas Hornos '10 Tufts University Jumbos 8 4/4 366* 440 +74 94th → 99th 1.0 15% 3.0 / 6.1 397*
2 Will Haeger '14 Tufts University Jumbos 19 4/4 246n* 426 +180 76th → 98th 4.9 11% 3.8 / 10.4 246*
3 William Hutchings '13 Tufts University Jumbos 14 4/4 363* 364 +1 93rd → 94th 0.0 41% 5.0 / 6.2 354*
4 David Siegal '06 Tufts University Jumbos 3 4/4 221n* 351 +130 72nd → 92nd 3.0 18% 6.0 / 11.3 221*
4 Kaity Storck Potts '08 Tufts University Jumbos 5 4/4 219n* 349 +130 72nd → 92nd 3.0 18% 6.0 / 11.3 219*
4 Willem Sandberg '14 Tufts University Jumbos 21 4/4 346* 275 -71 91st → 82nd 1.2 47% 6.0 / 6.7 283*
7 Massimo Soriano '12 Tufts University Jumbos 11 4/4 278* 292 +14 82nd → 84th 0.0 38% 7.8 / 9.2 275*
8 Donald Shea '23 Tufts University Jumbos 17 4/4 186n* 275 +89 65th → 82nd 1.6 25% 8.2 / 12.3 186*
9 Jeff Cruise '06 Tufts University Jumbos 1 4/4 120n* 276 +156 50th → 82nd 4.1 12% 8.5 / 14.7 120*
10 Margaret Rew '11 Tufts University Jumbos 10 4/4 207* 222 +15 69th → 72nd 0.1 59% 12.5 / 11.7 201*
11 Katherine Levinson '15 Tufts University Jumbos 22 4/4 145n* 199 +55 56th → 68th 0.6 42% 12.8 / 13.7 145*
11 Michael Easton '08 Tufts University Jumbos 4 4/4 99n* 126 +26 45th → 52nd 0.1 30% 12.8 / 15.1 99*
13 Mariel Marchand '13 Tufts University Jumbos 15 4/4 265* 197 -68 80th → 67th 1.4 84% 13.0 / 9.7 223*
14 Andrew Criezis '10 Tufts University Jumbos 7 4/4 303* 153 -150 86th → 58th 6.6 93% 13.2 / 8.3 191*
14 Natalie Salk '13 Tufts University Jumbos 18 4/4 249* 199 -50 77th → 68th 0.7 80% 13.2 / 10.2 215*
16 Will Peletteri '12 Tufts University Jumbos 12 4/4 129n* 193 +64 52nd → 67th 0.9 47% 14.2 / 14.3 129*
17 Julie Pringle '14 Tufts University Jumbos 20 4/4 147* 136 -11 56th → 54th 0.0 72% 16.5 / 13.8 129*
17 Meghan Pesch '11 Tufts University Jumbos 9 4/4 208* 194 -13 69th → 67th 0.0 89% 16.5 / 11.8 183*
19 Albert Nichols '13 Tufts University Jumbos 16 4/4 141* 46 -95 55th → 32nd 2.1 78% 17.0 / 14.2 87*
20 Baker Potts '09 Tufts University Jumbos 6 4/4 72n* 81 +9 39th → 41st 0.0 59% 17.8 / 16.0 72*
21 Jeff Cruise '06 Tufts University Jumbos 2 4/4 120n* 78 -42 50th → 40th 0.3 79% 18.8 / 14.6 120*
22 John Evans '13 Tufts University Jumbos 13 4/4 213u* — — 70th → — 0.0 >99% 23.0 / 11.5 —*

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →