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# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 29
2 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 35
3 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 41
4 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 42
5 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 4 49
6 Olin College of Engineering Olin College of Engineering Phoenix 57
7 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 64
8 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 91
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams B 5 1 1 7 Adam Strobridge '26
Jack Honan '23
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 A 3 3 4 10 Haley Andreasen '25
Nicolas Echarte '25
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 B 1 2 8 11 Charlotte Versavel '25
Cindy Wang '25
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 A 2 8 2 12 Ella Hubbard '26
Lilah Parker '26
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 A 8 4 6 18 Meredith Broadus '25
Annabel De Alessi '25
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 4 A 9 5 5 19 Blake Vogel '26
Thomas Mazzeo '26
Olin College of Engineering Olin College of Engineering Phoenix A 10 14 3 27 Peter Schnell '26 [1-3]
Aaron Blust '24 [1]
Will Young '26 [2-3]
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams A 4 12 12 28 Max Sigel '26
Lucas Masiello '23
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson B 6 10 14 30 Jack Schwab '25
Kathleen Downey '24
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 B 12 7 11 30 Annecy Kagan '26
Rachel Bonanno '25
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 4 B 14 9 7 30 Stefano Chiampo '26
Matthew Caplan '25
Olin College of Engineering Olin College of Engineering Phoenix B 15 6 9 30 Karina Lamoreux '25 [1]
James Jagielski '25 [2-3]
Daniel Heitz '26 [1]
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 B 7 11 13 31 Adam Larzelere '25
Harrison Vose '26
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson A 11 13 10 34 Matthew Cabot '24
Lily Bartlett '24
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats A 13 15 16 44 Kathleen Hanson '25
Scott Senatore '26
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats B 16 16 15 47 Devyn Weed '25
Maya Feldman '23
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.180+0.18
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (40 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson111
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats999
Olin College of EngineeringOlin College of Engineering Phoenix222
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams101010
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 1333
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 2444
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 3555
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 4666

Division B

Team1B2B3B
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson111111
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats232323
Olin College of EngineeringOlin College of Engineering Phoenix121212
University of Rhode IslandUniversity of Rhode Island Rams242424
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 1131313
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 2151515
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 3161616
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 4171717

Conditions — 09/10/2022 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 67%  ·  Pressure 1022.3 hPa

Temperature

75°F
↑ 80°F   ↓ 65°F
Feels like 78°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.8 kn
avg  ·  max 7.3 kn
Gusts to 15.4 kn
From E (82°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover1% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity67% Pressure1022.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Tufts: a typical day (+0.00)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.01
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.05 ± 0.28)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →