| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Harvard University | Crimson | 10–0 |
| 2 |  |
Boston University | Terriers | 7–3 |
| 3 |  |
Tufts University | Jumbos 1 | 5–5 |
| 3 |  |
University of Rhode Island | Rams | 5–5 |
| 5 |  |
Brown University | Bears | 2–8 |
| 6 | |
Tufts University | Jumbos 2 | 1–9 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 15,819 team race matches sailed before 2021-10-24, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 23 of 30 matches (77%) with a log-loss of 0.374 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.39 ± 0.36: an orderly event, more orderly than 84% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harvard University Crimson | 9.16 | 12.16 | 10–0 | 9.5 | ≥+3.00 | 0.7 | 59% |
| 2 | Boston University Terriers | 6.37 | 7.72 | 7–3 | 4.7 | +1.35 | 2.1 | 9% |
| 3 | Tufts University Jumbos 1 | 6.49 | 6.50 | 5–5 | 5.0 | +0.01 | 0.0 | 64% |
| 3 | University of Rhode Island Rams | 6.67 | 6.45 | 5–5 | 5.4 | −0.22 | 0.1 | 76% |
| 6 | Tufts University Jumbos 2 | 4.88 | 4.40 | 1–9 | 1.5 | −0.48 | 0.2 | 81% |
| 5 | Brown University Bears | 6.06 | 4.91 | 2–8 | 3.9 | −1.15 | 1.5 | 97% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Hansen | Harvard University | 2.48 | 5.48 | 10–0 | 9.5 | ≥+3.00 | 0.7 | 59% |
| Jonas Nelle | Harvard University | 3.09 | 6.09 | 10–0 | 9.5 | ≥+3.00 | 0.7 | 59% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | Boston University | 1.76 | 3.12 | 7–3 | 4.7 | +1.35 | 2.1 | 9% |
| Niall Sheridan | Tufts University | 1.55 | 1.56 | 5–5 | 5.0 | +0.01 | 0.0 | 64% |
| Adrien Bellanger | Tufts University | 1.81 | 1.82 | 5–5 | 5.0 | +0.01 | 0.0 | 64% |
| Joshua Bartoszuk | University of Rhode Island | 1.94 | 1.71 | 5–5 | 5.4 | −0.22 | 0.1 | 76% |
| Ben Rosenberg | University of Rhode Island | 2.72 | 2.50 | 5–5 | 5.4 | −0.22 | 0.1 | 76% |
| Haley Andreasen | Tufts University | 1.31 | 0.83 | 1–9 | 1.5 | −0.48 | 0.2 | 81% |
| Spencer Dellenbaugh | Brown University | 1.61 | 0.46 | 2–8 | 3.9 | −1.15 | 1.5 | 97% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Crimson | Terriers | 1 | Rams | Bears | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harvard University Crimson | 5–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| Boston University Terriers | 4–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos 1 | 3–7 | L | L | ✕ | L | W | ✕ |
| University of Rhode Island Rams | 3–2 | L | L | W | ✕ | W | W |
| Brown University Bears | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | L |
| Tufts University Jumbos 2 | 3–7 | L | L | ✕ | L | W | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Crimson | Terriers | 1 | Rams | Bears | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harvard University Crimson | 5–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| Boston University Terriers | 3–2 | L | ✕ | W | W | L | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos 1 | 3–7 | L | L | ✕ | W | L | ✕ |
| University of Rhode Island Rams | 2–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | L |
| Brown University Bears | 2–3 | L | W | W | L | ✕ | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos 2 | 3–7 | L | L | ✕ | W | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Terriers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Crimson | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Jumbos 1 | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Rams | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Jumbos 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Terriers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Crimson | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Rams | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 1-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Jumbos 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Crimson | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Terriers | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Rams | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Jumbos 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Terriers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Crimson | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Terriers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Jumbos 1 | 3-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Crimson | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Jumbos 2 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Bears | 2-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Terriers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 17 | |
Crimson | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Jumbos 1 | 2-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Rams | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Jumbos 1 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 2-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Terriers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Crimson | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Rams | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 2-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Jumbos 1 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Bears | 1-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Crimson | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Terriers | 3-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Jumbos 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rams | 4-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Bears | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Terriers | 2-4-5 |
| 27 | |
Crimson | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Terriers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Jumbos 1 | 3-4-5 |
| 29 | |
Crimson | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 30 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 3-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Harvard University | Crimson | Eric Hansen '23 Jonas Nelle '22 Lachlain Mcgranahan '24 |
Ariel Wang '23 Carolyn Wang '23 Cassia Lee '23 |
|
Boston University | Terriers | Elliott Mendenhall '25 Nathan Selian '25 Noah Robitshek '25 |
Abigail Murray '23 Grace Murphy '25 Amelia Boivin '22 |
|
Tufts University | Jumbos 1 | Adrien Bellanger '25 Matthew Wallace '25 Niall Sheridan '23 |
Rachel Bonanno '25 Cindy Wang '25 Jessica Friedman '22 |
|
University of Rhode Island | Rams | Ben Rosenberg '23 Henry Lee '24 Joshua Bartoszuk '25 |
Jack Honan '23 Rowan Woods '23 Arturo Ortega '22 |
|
Brown University | Bears | Grant Adam '23 Keller Morrison '25 Spencer Dellenbaugh '23 |
Olivia Miller '25 Ali Zaidi '24 Lucian Sharpe '24 |
|
Tufts University | Jumbos 2 | Haley Andreasen '25 Julia Shannon-Grillo '24 Samantha Jensen '24 |
Dorothy Waskow '22 Lucy Belknap '25 Leo Terry '25 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
