Boston University '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.12 (fleet 2.94) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 33–81 (29%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 | 2 | 6–12 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 1 | 0–2 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 2 | 8–16 | — |
| Fall 2022 | 2 | 5–14 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 2 | 7–34 | — |
| Fall 2021 | 1 | 7–3 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 9 graded regattas (112 matches) the record is 33–79 against 32.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.5). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-05 | Mystic Lake Team Race | skipper | 2.33 | 2.31 | 2–6 | 2.0 | −0.02 | 0.0 | 69% |
| 2025-03-22 | BU Team Race | skipper | 2.31 | 2.65 | 4–6 | 3.5 | +0.34 | 0.1 | 48% |
| 2023-04-08 | Mystic Lake Team Racing Invite | skipper | 2.24 | 2.94 | 4–4 | 2.9 | +0.70 | 0.6 | 30% |
| 2023-03-25 | Harpswell Sound Team Race | skipper | 2.03 | 1.65 | 4–12 | 5.0 | −0.38 | 0.3 | 82% |
| 2022-10-23 | Franklin Lane Trophy | skipper | 2.11 | 2.43 | 1–3 | 0.8 | +0.33 | 0.1 | 60% |
| 2022-10-22 | Norman Reid Team Race | skipper | 2.21 | 2.95 | 4–11 | 2.3 | +0.74 | 0.9 | 19% |
| 2022-03-26 | Boston University Team Race | skipper | 2.03 | 1.49 | 6–14 | 8.1 | −0.54 | 0.8 | 90% |
| 2022-03-19 | The Ivan Geiger Team Race Regatta | skipper | 2.07 | 0.76 | 1–20 | 3.2 | −1.31 | 1.7 | 97% |
| 2021-10-24 | Lane Trophy Team Race | skipper | 1.64 | 2.99 | 7–3 | 4.7 | +1.35 | 2.1 | 9% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern 7 | Skipper | A | 4 | 2.2 | 3.18 |
| Mystic Lake Team Race | Skipper | TR | 8 | 25% | — |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 3.9 | 3.35 |
| BU Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 40% | — |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Terrier Invite | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.2 | 3.58 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 11.5 | 2.18 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 10.6 | 2.61 |
| Barnett Trophy | Skipper | B | 7 | 2.4 | 3.45 |
| The 33rd Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 13 | 11.4 | 2.25 |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Western Open National Semi-Finals | Skipper | B | 2 | 14.0 | 2.39 |
| Southern Series 7 | Skipper | B | 8 | 4.4 | 1.93 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 9.8 | 2.56 |
| George E. Morris Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.2 | 2.60 |
| BU Team Race | Skipper | TR | 5 | 60% | — |
| Boston University Trophy FR | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.8 | 3.19 |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Savin Hill Invite | Skipper | A | 8 | 10.4 | 2.66 |
| Salt Pond Invite | Skipper | A | 4 | 2.2 | 4.25 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 8.6 | 2.80 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 3.1 | 4.15 |
| The Dark of Night | Skipper | B | 2 | 5.0 | 2.64 |
| BU Invite Oct | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.6 | 2.62 |
| BU Invite | Skipper | A | 9 | 5.6 | 2.82 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern 7 Fleet Race | Skipper | B | 9 | 3.8 | 1.38 |
| Polar Bear Invite | Skipper | A | 10 | 2.8 | 3.12 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 5.7 | 3.54 |
| Mystic Lake Team Racing Invite | Skipper | TR | 8 | 50% | — |
| Mendums Invite | Skipper | A | 4 | 3.0 | 2.63 |
| Harpswell Sound Team Race | Skipper | TR | 16 | 25% | — |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Norman Reid Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 27% | — |
| Great Herring Pond Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.5 | 3.01 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 10.8 | 2.57 |
| Franklin Lane Trophy | Skipper | TR | 4 | 25% | — |
| Charles Invitational | Skipper | A | 6 | 3.0 | 0.55 |
| CC Invite Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 12.1 | 0.85 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| The Ivan Geiger Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 21 | 5% | — |
| Central Series Four | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.3 | 2.32 |
| Boston University Team Race | Skipper | TR | 20 | 30% | — |
| Boston University Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 7.8 | 2.25 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Nicholas Barnett Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 12.7 | 1.45 |
| Lane Trophy Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 70% | — |
| Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 11.5 | 1.94 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 6.0 | 3.20 |
| Harvard Invitational | Skipper | B | 10 | 4.2 | 3.13 |
| Charles Invitational | Skipper | B | 9 | 5.0 | 2.73 |
| Boston University Invite | Skipper | B | 15 | 8.2 | 1.39 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Nathan Selian |  Unregistered-NESSA |
'20 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
