Unregistered-NESSA '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.14 | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 9–1 (90%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2021 | 1 | 9–1 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (10 matches) the record is 9–1 against 4.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+4.4). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-05-23 | Levesque Trophy: ME State Team Race Championship | skipper | 0.44 | 4.00 | 9–1 | 4.6 | +3.56 | 7.5 | <1% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Levesque Trophy: ME State Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 3 | 100% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Stags Leap | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.6 | 0.93 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Ranger Rally | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.1 | 0.54 |
| NKBI Qualifier Keelboat | Crew | A | 4 | 6.8 | — |
| Casco Bay Open | Skipper | A | 6 | 10.7 | 0.41 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Ranger Rally Regatta | Skipper | B | 4 | 4.0 | 1.26 |
| NESSA NKBI Qualifier Keelboat | Crew | A | 4 | 3.5 | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Nathan Selian |  Boston University |
'25 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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