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Ranger Rally

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Boothbay RHS Boothbay RHS SeaHawks Gold 17 40 57
2 Falmouth High School, ME Falmouth High School, ME Yachtsmen 1 33 35 68
3 Greely High School - Maine Greely High School - Maine Rangers 1 28 43 71
4 Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 53 41 94
5 Cheverus High School Cheverus High School Varsity 63 37 100
6 Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Capers 50 55 105
7 Falmouth High School, ME Falmouth High School, ME Yachtsmen 2 67 47 114
8 Yarmouth High School Yarmouth High School Clippers 1 70 62 132
9 Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Southern Maine 57 77 134
10 Champlain VUHS Champlain VUHS Varsity 72 71 143
11 Yarmouth High School Yarmouth High School Clippers 2 81 73 154
12 Greely High School - Maine Greely High School - Maine Rangers 2 78 81 159
13 Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Northern VT 63 99 162
14 Portland High School Portland High School Bullpups 116 71 187
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Boothbay RHS Boothbay RHS SeaHawks Gold 5 1 2 2 4 1 1 1 17 Hamilton Barclay '22
Ella Beauregard '21
Greely High School - Maine Greely High School - Maine Rangers 1 1 4 1 1 1 6 6 8 28 George Holt '19
Henry Clapp '20
Falmouth High School, ME Falmouth High School, ME Yachtsmen 1 3 7 8 3 3 4 3 2 33 Brendan Mittleider '19
Alex Mazelsky '20
Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Capers 4 3 10 4 8 5 5 11 50 Patrick Miller '19
Aidan Brown '20
Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 2 2 4 10 7 13 10 5 53 Hal Clews '19
Lucy Kilbreth '20
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Southern Maine 6 10 9 13 6 2 2 9 57 Nathan Selian '20
Lily Thompson '19
Cheverus High School Cheverus High School Varsity 7 8 5 6 5 12 8 12 63 Alex Drago '19
Hatch Clay '20
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Northern VT 12 6 3 12 11 11 4 4 63 Lucia Pendolino '19
Joshua Scheidt '19
Falmouth High School, ME Falmouth High School, ME Yachtsmen 2 9 13 6 9 2 8 7 13 67 Sam Rooks '22
Emma Cole '21
Yarmouth High School Yarmouth High School Clippers 1 8 5 12 8 12 10 9 6 70 Abby Vanlonkhuyzen '19
Nicolas Paulo '21
Champlain VUHS Champlain VUHS Varsity 10 DNF 7 5 13 3 12 7 72 Jack Merrill '19
Emma Hawko '19
Greely High School - Maine Greely High School - Maine Rangers 2 11 12 11 7 9 7 11 10 78 Ethan Adshead '21
Anna Smith '19
Yarmouth High School Yarmouth High School Clippers 2 13 9 13 11 10 9 13 3 81 Wes Pratt '21
Kendrick Langenbach '20
Portland High School Portland High School Bullpups RAF 11 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 116 Gavin Sanborn '21 [1-8]
Alice Thompson '21 [1-2]
No Show [3-8]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Falmouth High School, ME Falmouth High School, ME Yachtsmen 1 7 5 2 1 2 2 2 14 35 Catherine Morrissette '20
Catherine Carpenter '19
Cheverus High School Cheverus High School Varsity 4 4 3 7 6 RDG 3 5 37 William Keat '20
Matthew Scanlon '20
Boothbay RHS Boothbay RHS SeaHawks Gold 1 8 7 11 3 7 1 2 40 Alton Coolidge '22
Toby Clarkson '22
Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 2 1 1 3 10 8 5 11 41 Eva Ermlich '22
Jondall Norris '20
Greely High School - Maine Greely High School - Maine Rangers 1 11 6 9 4 1 1 4 7 43 William Getchell '21
Hanna Johnston '21
Falmouth High School, ME Falmouth High School, ME Yachtsmen 2 5 2 10 2 8 6 8 6 47 Patrick Wahlig '22
Isabelle Gale '20
Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Capers 3 9 6 6 13 3 12 3 55 Alec Bodenski '19
Zac Wellins '19
Yarmouth High School Yarmouth High School Clippers 1 12 13 5 12 4 4 11 1 62 Ashley Arruda '19
Mackenzie Peloquin '19
Portland High School Portland High School Bullpups 13 11 4 5 5 12 9 12 71 Beo Endicott '22 [1-8]
Graham Ganter '22 [1-2]
Alice Thompson '21 [3-8]
Champlain VUHS Champlain VUHS Varsity 14 7 14 8 7 5 6 10 71 Claire Goldman '21
Loa Peary '22
Yarmouth High School Yarmouth High School Clippers 2 6 10 12 9 9 13 10 4 73 Daisy Brewer '23
Tia Soultanakis '22
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Southern Maine 9 3 8 RAF 11 9 13 9 77 Gabby Boord '19
Lake Lindelof '22
Greely High School - Maine Greely High School - Maine Rangers 2 8 14 11 10 12 11 7 8 81 Brooke Asherman '19
Jayme Morrison '19
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Northern VT 10 12 13 13 14 10 14 13 99 Zoe Greenhouse '21
Noah Powell '21
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.100+0.10
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Boothbay RHSBoothbay RHS SeaHawks Gold11335577
Cape Elizabeth High SchoolCape Elizabeth High School Capers22446688
Champlain VUHSChamplain VUHS Varsity33557799
Cheverus High SchoolCheverus High School Varsity4466881010
Falmouth High School, MEFalmouth High School, ME Yachtsmen 15577991111
Falmouth High School, MEFalmouth High School, ME Yachtsmen 2668810101212
Greely High School - MaineGreely High School - Maine Rangers 1779911111313
Greely High School - MaineGreely High School - Maine Rangers 288101012121414
Portland High SchoolPortland High School Bulldogs991111131311
Portland High SchoolPortland High School Bullpups10101212141422
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Northern VT121214142244
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Southern Maine111113131133
Yarmouth High SchoolYarmouth High School Clippers 11313113355
Yarmouth High SchoolYarmouth High School Clippers 21414224466

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Boothbay RHSBoothbay RHS SeaHawks Gold22446688
Cape Elizabeth High SchoolCape Elizabeth High School Capers33557799
Champlain VUHSChamplain VUHS Varsity4466881010
Cheverus High SchoolCheverus High School Varsity5577991111
Falmouth High School, MEFalmouth High School, ME Yachtsmen 1668810101212
Falmouth High School, MEFalmouth High School, ME Yachtsmen 2779911111313
Greely High School - MaineGreely High School - Maine Rangers 188101012121414
Greely High School - MaineGreely High School - Maine Rangers 2991111131311
Portland High SchoolPortland High School Bulldogs10101212141422
Portland High SchoolPortland High School Bullpups111113131133
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Northern VT1313113355
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Southern Maine121214142244
Yarmouth High SchoolYarmouth High School Clippers 11414224466
Yarmouth High SchoolYarmouth High School Clippers 211335577
School / Team SkipperCrew
Boothbay RHS Boothbay RHS Hamilton Barclay '22 Ella Beauregard '21
SeaHawks Gold Alton Coolidge '22 Toby Clarkson '22
Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Patrick Miller '19 Aidan Brown '20
Capers Alec Bodenski '19 Zac Wellins '19
Champlain VUHS Champlain VUHS Jack Merrill '19 Emma Hawko '19
Varsity Claire Goldman '21 Loa Peary '22
Cheverus High School Cheverus High School Alex Drago '19 Hatch Clay '20
Varsity William Keat '20 Matthew Scanlon '20
Falmouth High School, ME Falmouth High School, ME Brendan Mittleider '19 Alex Mazelsky '20
Yachtsmen 1 Catherine Morrissette '20 Catherine Carpenter '19
Falmouth High School, ME Falmouth High School, ME Sam Rooks '22 Emma Cole '21
Yachtsmen 2 Patrick Wahlig '22 Isabelle Gale '20
Greely High School - Maine Greely High School - Maine George Holt '19 Henry Clapp '20
Rangers 1 William Getchell '21 Hanna Johnston '21
Greely High School - Maine Greely High School - Maine Ethan Adshead '21 Anna Smith '19
Rangers 2 Brooke Asherman '19 Jayme Morrison '19
Portland High School Portland High School Hal Clews '19 Lucy Kilbreth '20
Bulldogs Eva Ermlich '22 Jondall Norris '20
Portland High School Portland High School Gavin Sanborn '21 [1-8] Alice Thompson '21 [1-2]
No Show [3-8]
Bullpups Beo Endicott '22 [1-8] Graham Ganter '22 [1-2]
Alice Thompson '21 [3-8]
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Lucia Pendolino '19 Joshua Scheidt '19
Northern VT Zoe Greenhouse '21 Noah Powell '21
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Nathan Selian '20 Lily Thompson '19
Southern Maine Gabby Boord '19 Lake Lindelof '22
Yarmouth High School Yarmouth High School Abby Vanlonkhuyzen '19 Nicolas Paulo '21
Clippers 1 Ashley Arruda '19 Mackenzie Peloquin '19
Yarmouth High School Yarmouth High School Wes Pratt '21 Kendrick Langenbach '20
Clippers 2 Daisy Brewer '23 Tia Soultanakis '22

Conditions — 10/20/2018 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 58%  ·  Pressure 1000.3 hPa

Temperature

58°F
↑ 61°F   ↓ 54°F
Feels like 51°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
10.0 kn
avg  ·  max 13.2 kn
Gusts to 30.7 kn
From SW (235°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover38% Sunshine9.1 hrs Humidity58% Pressure1000.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 13 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Greely - Maine: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.36)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.05 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.30
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.63 ± 0.13)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.36 means a rating gap counts about 31% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Greely - Maine by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Greely - Maine, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →