Falmouth High School, ME '21
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.19 (fleet 0.32) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 4–6 (40%) as crew 25–26 (49%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2021 | 2 | 4–6 | 1–5 |
| Spring 2018 | 4 | — | 24–21 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (61 matches) the record is 29–32 against 31.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.7). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-05-23 | Levesque Trophy: ME State Team Race Championship | skipper | 0.42 | -0.27 | 4–6 | 5.2 | −0.69 | 0.5 | 87% |
| 2021-05-09 | NESSA Baker Qualifer | crew | 1.29 | 2.29 | 1–5 | 0.5 | +1.00 | 0.3 | 41% |
| 2018-05-26 | 2018 NIT Team Racing Regatta | crew | 2.24 | 1.41 | 11–13 | 14.3 | −0.83 | 1.6 | 96% |
| 2018-05-19 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Fritz Mark Trophy) | crew | 1.97 | 2.20 | 6–8 | 5.5 | +0.23 | 0.1 | 50% |
| 2018-05-05 | Cheverus Team Race | crew | 1.94 | 4.94 | 3–0 | 2.5 | ≥+3.00 | 0.8 | 52% |
| 2018-03-31 | Falmouth Team Race | crew | 1.84 | 4.84 | 4–0 | 3.6 | ≥+3.00 | 0.5 | 68% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Emma Cole |  Northeastern University |
'25 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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