| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Unregistered-NESSA | Southern Maine | 3–0 |
| 2 |  |
Lincoln Academy | Eagles | 2–1 |
| 3 |  |
Camden Hills RHS | Varsity | 1–2 |
| 4 |  |
Falmouth High School, ME | Yachtsmen | 0–3 |
| 5 |  |
Yarmouth High School | Clippers | 2–5 |
| 6 |  |
Boothbay RHS | SeaHawks Gold | 2–5 |
| 7 |  |
Portland High School | Bulldogs | 2–5 |
| 8 |  |
Cape Elizabeth High School | Capers | 0–7 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 7,695 team race matches sailed before 2021-05-23, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 26 of 34 matches (76%) with a log-loss of 0.520 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.35 ± 0.51: a typical event, more orderly than 65% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Unregistered-NESSA | 1.50 | 5.07 | 9–1 | 4.6 | +3.56 | 7.5 | <1% |
| 3 | Camden Hills RHS | 1.46 | 2.37 | 6–4 | 4.5 | +0.92 | 0.8 | 24% |
| 2 | Lincoln Academy | 3.95 | 4.19 | 9–1 | 8.8 | +0.25 | 0.0 | 66% |
| 7 | Portland High School | 0.76 | 0.29 | 2–5 | 2.5 | −0.47 | 0.1 | 79% |
| 5 | Yarmouth High School | 0.90 | 0.27 | 2–5 | 2.7 | −0.63 | 0.2 | 84% |
| 4 | Falmouth High School, ME | 1.80 | 1.10 | 4–6 | 5.2 | −0.69 | 0.5 | 87% |
| 6 | Boothbay RHS | 1.15 | 0.23 | 2–5 | 3.1 | −0.91 | 0.5 | 90% |
| 8 | Cape Elizabeth High School | 0.87 | -2.13 | 0–7 | 2.7 | ≤−3.00 | 4.4 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Selian | Unregistered-NESSA | 0.44 | 4.00 | 9–1 | 4.6 | +3.56 | 7.5 | <1% |
| Harrison Fream | Unregistered-NESSA | 0.44 | 4.00 | 9–1 | 4.6 | +3.56 | 7.5 | <1% |
| Brott Emerson | Camden Hills RHS | 0.50 | 1.42 | 6–4 | 4.5 | +0.92 | 0.8 | 24% |
| William Eggena | Camden Hills RHS | 0.52 | 1.43 | 6–4 | 4.5 | +0.92 | 0.8 | 24% |
| Aoife Mahoney | Portland High School | 0.07 | -0.40 | 2–5 | 2.5 | −0.47 | 0.1 | 79% |
| Charlie Spencer | Portland High School | 0.15 | -0.32 | 2–5 | 2.5 | −0.47 | 0.1 | 79% |
| Sandy Yale | Yarmouth High School | 0.06 | -0.57 | 2–5 | 2.7 | −0.63 | 0.2 | 84% |
| Catelyn Coolidge | Yarmouth High School | 0.44 | -0.19 | 2–5 | 2.7 | −0.63 | 0.2 | 84% |
| Myles Feuer | Falmouth High School, ME | 0.58 | -0.11 | 4–6 | 5.2 | −0.69 | 0.5 | 87% |
| Chris Hoffman | Falmouth High School, ME | 0.77 | 0.07 | 4–6 | 5.2 | −0.69 | 0.5 | 87% |
| Otto Scheonthal | Boothbay RHS | 0.44 | -0.48 | 2–5 | 3.1 | −0.91 | 0.5 | 90% |
| Nathan Chatterton | Boothbay RHS | 0.44 | -0.48 | 2–5 | 3.1 | −0.91 | 0.5 | 90% |
| Tess Straw | Cape Elizabeth High School | 0.66 | -2.34 | 0–7 | 2.7 | ≤−3.00 | 4.4 | >99% |
| Thomas Emery | Cape Elizabeth High School | -0.07 | -3.07 | 0–7 | 2.7 | ≤−3.00 | 4.4 | >99% |
| Luc Francis | Cape Elizabeth High School | -0.08 | -3.08 | 0–7 | 2.7 | ≤−3.00 | 4.4 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Eagles | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Yachtsmen | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Capers | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Southern Maine | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Clippers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
SeaHawks Gold | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Capers | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Yachtsmen | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 2-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Varsity | 1-3-4 | def. | |
SeaHawks Gold | 2-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Southern Maine | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Clippers | 2-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Capers | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Eagles | 1-2-6 | def. | |
SeaHawks Gold | 3-4-5 |
| 11 | |
Southern Maine | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Yachtsmen | 3-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Clippers | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
SeaHawks Gold | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 2-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Southern Maine | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Capers | 3-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Eagles | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-4-5 |
| 16 | |
Yachtsmen | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Clippers | 1-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Southern Maine | 1-2-3 | def. | |
SeaHawks Gold | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Varsity | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 2-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Yachtsmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Capers | 3-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Clippers | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Southern Maine | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Yachtsmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
SeaHawks Gold | 3-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Eagles | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Clippers | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Capers | 2-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Varsity | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Yachtsmen | 2-4-5 |
| 26 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Southern Maine | 4-5-6 |
| 27 | |
SeaHawks Gold | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Capers | 2-3-6 |
| 28 | |
Bulldogs | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Clippers | 2-4-5 |
| 29 | |
Southern Maine | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 1-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Yachtsmen | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 31 | |
Southern Maine | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Yachtsmen | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 32 | |
Eagles | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 33 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Yachtsmen | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 34 | |
Southern Maine | 1-2-6 DNF | def. | |
Eagles | 3-4-5 DNF |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
