Portland High School '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.73 (fleet 1.18) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 28–28 (50%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 4 | 24–9 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 2 | 2–14 | — |
| Spring 2021 | 1 | 2–5 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (52 matches) the record is 24–28 against 24.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.0). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-05-20 | Dick Levesque Maine State Team Racing Championship | skipper | 1.18 | 1.39 | 8–2 | 7.7 | +0.21 | 0.0 | 60% |
| 2023-05-13 | Southern Maine Open | skipper | 1.08 | 4.08 | 6–0 | 4.3 | ≥+3.00 | 2.7 | 12% |
| 2023-04-15 | April 15 8x Team Race | skipper | 1.01 | 0.66 | 8–7 | 8.7 | −0.35 | 0.1 | 78% |
| 2022-05-14 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy) | skipper | 0.60 | -2.40 | 0–14 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.1 | >99% |
| 2021-05-23 | Levesque Trophy: ME State Team Race Championship | skipper | 0.07 | -0.40 | 2–5 | 2.5 | −0.47 | 0.1 | 79% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Aoife Mahoney |  University of Massachusetts at Amherst |
'27 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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