Dick Levesque Maine State Team Racing Championship

Pre-event forecast?

Fitted on the 10,072 team race matches sailed before 2023-05-20, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 22 of 30 matches (73%) with a log-loss of 0.505 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.04 ± 0.43: a typical event, more orderly than 42% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Portland High School Bulldogs	1	3.69	Posie Cabaniss / Hazel Johnson 1.41 7–1 Aoife Mahoney / Frankie Sparrow 1.18 7–1 Jack Taylor / Nick Petruccelli 1.20 7–1 Posie Cabaniss / Tray Miller 1.26 1–1 Aoife Mahoney / Jack Taylor 1.14 1–1 Charlotte Mcdonald / Frankie Sparrow 0.66 1–1	77%	8–2 (80%)	+0.3
2	Lincoln Academy Eagles	2	3.02 school −0.43	Kate Mason / Piper Carleton 1.43 Otto Schoenthal / Ottis Frost 1.41 3–3 Stella Field / Harper Shepard 3–3 Otto Schoenthal / Griffin Chace 1.39 4–0 Stella Field / Toby Clarkson 4–0	64%	7–3 (70%)	+0.6
3	Falmouth High School Navigators	4	2.57 school −0.33	Ben Wintersteen / Miles Mannion 1.08 Patrick Wahlig / Aurora Raber 1.09 William Kelley / Ian Doherty 0.58	55%	7–3 (70%)	+1.5
4	Camden Hills RHS Varsity	3	2.58 school −0.07	Charles Conover / Tobias Ava 0.56 Julian Henderson / Abigal Williams 1.25 William Eggena / Greer Lafiura 0.69	55%	4–6 (40%)	−1.5
6	Cape Elizabeth High School Capers	6	0.59 school −0.14	Luca Kleeman / Keaton Mosunic 0.33 Ruby Mcgonigal / Callie Mccarley Thomas Emery / Gideon Straw 0.21 3–5 Thomas Emery / James Baldwin 0.28 0–2	20%	3–7 (30%)	+1.0
7	Yarmouth High School Clippers	5	1.24 school −0.15	Thorton Lindsay / Myah Hassan Olivier Garcia De Reynal / Spencer Moore Eliana Goldman / Jack Carlson 1–5 Eliana Goldman / Quinn Hackett 0–4	29%	1–9 (10%)	−1.9

Surprisal: who beat their rating?

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
3	Falmouth High School	2.57	3.55	7–3	5.5	+0.98	0.8	24%
6	Cape Elizabeth High School	0.59	1.36	3–7	2.0	+0.77	0.5	31%
2	Lincoln Academy	3.02	3.43	7–3	6.4	+0.42	0.1	48%
1	Portland High School	3.69	3.90	8–2	7.7	+0.21	0.0	60%
4	Camden Hills RHS	2.58	1.63	4–6	5.5	−0.95	0.8	92%
7	Yarmouth High School	1.24	-0.67	1–9	2.9	−1.91	1.8	98%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Ben Wintersteen	Falmouth High School	1.08	2.06	7–3	5.5	+0.98	0.8	24%
William Kelley	Falmouth High School	0.58	1.56	7–3	5.5	+0.98	0.8	24%
Luca Kleeman	Cape Elizabeth High School	0.33	1.10	3–7	2.0	+0.77	0.5	31%
Ruby Mcgonigal	Cape Elizabeth High School	0.03	0.80	3–7	2.0	+0.77	0.5	31%
Thomas Emery	Cape Elizabeth High School	0.21	0.98	3–7	2.0	+0.77	0.5	31%
Kate Mason	Lincoln Academy	1.43	1.85	7–3	6.4	+0.42	0.1	48%
Otto Schoenthal	Lincoln Academy	1.41	1.83	7–3	6.4	+0.42	0.1	48%
Aoife Mahoney	Portland High School	1.18	1.39	8–2	7.7	+0.21	0.0	60%
Charles Conover	Camden Hills RHS	0.56	-0.40	4–6	5.5	−0.95	0.8	92%
William Eggena	Camden Hills RHS	0.69	-0.27	4–6	5.5	−0.95	0.8	92%
Thorton Lindsay	Yarmouth High School	0.56	-1.35	1–9	2.9	−1.91	1.8	98%
Eliana Goldman	Yarmouth High School	-0.14	-2.05	1–9	2.9	−1.91	1.8	98%
Olivier Garcia De Reynal	Yarmouth High School	0.69	-1.22	1–9	2.9	−1.91	1.8	98%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

#	Winner				Loser		Pos.
1		Capers	1-2-6	def.		Varsity	3-4-5
2		Navigators	1-2-6	def.		Varsity	3-4-5
3		Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.		Eagles	1-5-6
4		Southern Maine	1-2-5	def.		Clippers	3-4-6
5		Navigators	1-2-3	def.		Bulldogs	4-5-6
6		Varsity	1-2-3	def.		Eagles	4-5-6
7		Southern Maine	1-2-5	def.		Varsity	3-4-6
8		Varsity	1-2-6	def.		Capers	3-4-5
9		Eagles	2-3-4	def.		Clippers	1-5-6
10		Navigators	1-2-4	def.		Varsity	3-5-6
11		Southern Maine	1-2-4	def.		Capers	3-5-6
12		Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.		Clippers	4-5-6
13		Navigators	1-3-5	def.		Capers	2-4-6
14		Eagles	1-3-4	def.		Varsity	2-5-6
15		Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.		Varsity	3-4-5
16		Eagles	2-3-4	def.		Navigators	1-5-6
17		Southern Maine	1-4-5	def.		Bulldogs	2-3-6
18		Varsity	1-2-5	def.		Clippers	3-4-6
19		Eagles	2-3-4	def.		Southern Maine	1-5-6
20		Varsity	1-2-5	def.		Varsity	3-4-6
21		Capers	1-2-6	def.		Clippers	3-4-5
22		Varsity	1-2-4	def.		Southern Maine	3-5-6
23		Navigators	1-2-3	def.		Clippers	4-5-6
24		Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.		Capers	4-5-6
25		Varsity	1-2-4	def.		Clippers	3-5-6
26		Eagles	1-2-3	def.		Capers	4-5-6
27		Southern Maine	1-2-5	def.		Navigators	3-4-6
28		Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.		Varsity	4-5-6
29		Capers	1-3-4	def.		Varsity	2-5-6
30		Navigators	1-2-4	def.		Varsity	3-5-6
31		Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.		Eagles	4-5-6
32		Southern Maine	1-2-5	def.		Clippers	3-4-6
33		Bulldogs	1-3-6	def.		Navigators	2-4-5
34		Eagles	2-4-5	def.		Varsity	1-3-6 DSQ
35		Southern Maine	1-2-3	def.		Varsity	4-5-6
36		Varsity	1-2-3	def.		Capers	4-5-6
37		Eagles	1-2-3	def.		Clippers	4-5-6 DNF,DNF
38		Navigators	1-3-4	def.		Varsity	2-5-6
39		Capers	1-3-4	def.		Southern Maine	2-5-6
40		Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.		Clippers	3-5-6
41		Navigators	1-3-4	def.		Capers	2-5-6
42		Eagles	1-2-3	def.		Varsity	4-5-6
43		Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.		Varsity	3-4-6
44		Eagles	1-2-6	def.		Navigators	3-4-5
45		Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.		Southern Maine	3-5-6
46		Clippers	1-2-6	def.		Varsity	3-4-5
47		Eagles	1-2-5	def.		Southern Maine	3-4-6
48		Varsity	1-2-5	def.		Varsity	3-4-6
49		Capers	1-2-4	def.		Clippers	3-5-6
50		Varsity	1-3-6	def.		Southern Maine	2-4-5
51		Navigators	1-3-4	def.		Clippers	2-5-6
52		Capers	1-2-5	def.		Bulldogs	3-4-6
53		Clippers	1-4-5	def.		Varsity	2-3-6
54		Eagles	1-2-3	def.		Capers	4-5-6
55		Southern Maine	1-4-5	def.		Navigators	2-3-6
56		Varsity	1-2-6	def.		Bulldogs	3-4-5

	School	Team	Skippers	Crew
	Portland High School	Bulldogs	Alyson Mina '23 Aoife Mahoney '23 Charlotte Mcdonald '25 Jack Taylor '23 Posie Cabaniss '23	Frankie Sparrow '23 Ian Gallagher '25 Jack Taylor '23 Nick Petruccelli '23 Tray Miller '26 Hazel Johnson '23
	Lincoln Academy	Eagles	Kate Mason '23 Otto Schoenthal '25 Stella Field '25	Piper Carleton '24 Griffin Chace '26 Ottis Frost '25 Harper Shepard '25 Toby Clarkson '24
	Falmouth High School	Navigators	Ben Wintersteen '23 Patrick Wahlig '23 William Kelley '25	Miles Mannion '24 Aurora Raber '24 Ian Doherty '25
	Camden Hills RHS	Varsity	Charles Conover '25 Julian Henderson '23 William Eggena '23	Tobias Ava '24 Abigal Williams '23 Greer Lafiura '24
	Unregistered-NESSA	N/A	Unregskip '23	Unregcrew '24
	Cape Elizabeth High School	Capers	Luca Kleeman '27 Ruby Mcgonigal '28 Thomas Emery '23	Keaton Mosunic '28 Callie Mccarley '27 James Baldwin '24 Gideon Straw '28
	Yarmouth High School	Clippers	Eliana Goldman '26 Olivier Garcia De Reynal '25 Thorton Lindsay '24	Quinn Hackett '25 Jack Carlson '23 Spencer Moore '24 Myah Hassan '25
	Cheverus High School	Greevus	No One '23	No One ` '26 No One '26 No Show