lincoln-academy '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.12 | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 17–18 (49%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 3 | — | 17–18 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (35 matches) the record is 17–18 against 18.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.0). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-05-20 | Dick Levesque Maine State Team Racing Championship | crew | 1.41 | 0.90 | 3–3 | 3.5 | −0.51 | 0.1 | 82% |
| 2023-05-06 | NESSA Team Racing Tournament(Terk Trophy) | crew | 1.54 | 0.73 | 3–11 | 4.5 | −0.80 | 0.7 | 90% |
| 2023-04-15 | April 15 8x Team Race | crew | 0.97 | 1.73 | 11–4 | 10.0 | +0.75 | 0.4 | 37% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Season | |||||
| NESSA Team Racing Tournament(Terk Trophy) | Crew | TR | 14 | 21% | — |
| Dick Levesque Maine State Team Racing Championship | Crew | TR | 14 | 64% | — |
| April 15 8x Team Race | Crew | TR | 14 | 86% | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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