NESSA Team Racing Tournament(Terk Trophy)

HostNESSA
Date05/06/2023
TypeDistrict Tournament
BoatCFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	East Greenwich High School	Avengers	11–3
2	Sharon High School	Eagles	10–4
3	Marthas Vineyard RHS	Vineyarders	8–6
4	Dartmouth High School	Sailing	7–7
5	Greens Farms Academy	Dragons	7–7
5	Darien High School	Blue Wave	7–7
7	Lincoln Academy	Eagles	3–11
7	Moses Brown School	Quakers	3–11

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 9,849 team race matches sailed before 2023-05-06, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 33 of 56 matches (59%) with a log-loss of 0.661 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.71 ± 0.35: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 13% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	East Greenwich High School Avengers	5	3.68	Neala Bijari / Pierson Falk Owen Warren / Madeleine Jarbeau Zachary Amelotte / Mara Oancea	54%	11–3 (79%)	+3.4
2	Sharon High School Eagles	3	4.29 school +0.08	Andrew Liu / Zander Lai 1.64 Henry Do / Akash Shah 1.42 Rohan Shah / Vidhur Busannagari 6–2 Isabella Cho / Grace Kokkotos 1.18 4–2	66%	10–4 (71%)	+0.8
3	Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders	4	3.78 school −0.16	Griffin Stead / Lyla Solway Sam Riley / Jocelyn Balinuas 1.71 Simon Hammarlund / Juliet Morse 1.46	56%	8–6 (57%)	+0.2
4	Dartmouth High School Sailing	2	4.40 school −0.30	Maisy Sperry / Phoebe Murray Finn Sperry / Tiago Lameiro Sam Sperry / Mohamed Hijazi 5–3 Sam Sperry / Abigail Glaser 2–4	67%	7–7 (50%)	−2.4
5	Greens Farms Academy Dragons	1	4.48 school +0.53	Max Laferriere / Caroline Collins Ava Stevens / Whitney Burton 1.26 Emmet Ennico / Hadley Salem	69%	7–7 (50%)	−2.7
5	Darien High School Blue Wave	8	2.15 school −0.28	Oliver West / Ella Seymour Maxwell Connor / Brendan Haidinger Gavin Hanig / Finn Hagen 2–4 Gavin Hanig / Charlotte West 2–2 Gavin Hanig / John Lubeley 3–1	25%	7–7 (50%)	+3.5
7	Lincoln Academy Eagles	6	2.55 school −0.36	Kate Mason / Harper Shepard 1.19 Piper Carleton / Ottis Frost Griffin Chace / Stella Field 0.03	32%	3–11 (21%)	−1.5
7	Moses Brown School Quakers	7	2.48 school −0.10	Noah Hemingway / Brooke Kelley Otto Kalfelz / Ava Belli Merle Durant / Marley Mills	30%	3–11 (21%)	−1.2

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	East Greenwich High School	3.68	5.29	11–3	7.6	+1.61	2.9	4%
5	Darien High School	2.15	3.69	7–7	3.5	+1.53	3.1	3%
2	Sharon High School	4.29	4.67	10–4	9.2	+0.37	0.2	44%
3	Marthas Vineyard RHS	3.78	3.86	8–6	7.8	+0.08	0.0	58%
7	Moses Brown School	2.48	1.83	3–11	4.2	−0.64	0.4	86%
7	Lincoln Academy	2.55	1.75	3–11	4.5	−0.80	0.7	90%
4	Dartmouth High School	4.40	3.36	7–7	9.4	−1.03	1.4	96%
5	Greens Farms Academy	4.48	3.33	7–7	9.7	−1.15	1.8	97%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Neala Bijari	East Greenwich High School	0.96	2.58	11–3	7.6	+1.61	2.9	4%
Maxwell Connor	Darien High School	1.42	2.95	7–7	3.5	+1.53	3.1	3%
Gavin Hanig	Darien High School	-0.25	1.28	7–7	3.5	+1.53	3.1	3%
Andrew Liu	Sharon High School	1.64	2.01	10–4	9.2	+0.37	0.2	44%
Henry Do	Sharon High School	1.42	1.79	10–4	9.2	+0.37	0.2	44%
Otto Kalfelz	Moses Brown School	0.89	0.24	3–11	4.2	−0.64	0.4	86%
Merle Durant	Moses Brown School	0.17	-0.47	3–11	4.2	−0.64	0.4	86%
Kate Mason	Lincoln Academy	1.19	0.39	3–11	4.5	−0.80	0.7	90%
Piper Carleton	Lincoln Academy	1.54	0.73	3–11	4.5	−0.80	0.7	90%
Finn Sperry	Dartmouth High School	1.44	0.40	7–7	9.4	−1.03	1.4	96%
Sam Sperry	Dartmouth High School	1.60	0.56	7–7	9.4	−1.03	1.4	96%
Max Laferriere	Greens Farms Academy	1.61	0.46	7–7	9.7	−1.15	1.8	97%
Ava Stevens	Greens Farms Academy	1.26	0.11	7–7	9.7	−1.15	1.8	97%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Lincoln Academy	Moses Brown School	57%
1	2	Greens Farms Academy	Marthas Vineyard RHS	63%
1	3	Darien High School	Dartmouth High School	15%	upset
1	4	Sharon High School	East Greenwich High School	63%
1	5	Marthas Vineyard RHS	Lincoln Academy	72%
1	6	Moses Brown School	Darien High School	55%
1	7	East Greenwich High School	Greens Farms Academy	33%	upset
1	8	Dartmouth High School	Sharon High School	46%	upset
1	9	Marthas Vineyard RHS	Darien High School	79%
1	10	East Greenwich High School	Lincoln Academy	69%
1	11	Dartmouth High School	Moses Brown School	82%
1	12	Greens Farms Academy	Sharon High School	56%
1	13	Darien High School	East Greenwich High School	23%	upset
1	14	Marthas Vineyard RHS	Dartmouth High School	38%	upset
1	15	Greens Farms Academy	Lincoln Academy	82%
1	16	Sharon High School	Moses Brown School	83%
1	17	East Greenwich High School	Dartmouth High School	37%	upset
1	18	Greens Farms Academy	Darien High School	86%
1	19	Marthas Vineyard RHS	Moses Brown School	74%
1	20	Sharon High School	Lincoln Academy	78%
1	21	Greens Farms Academy	Dartmouth High School	52%
1	22	East Greenwich High School	Moses Brown School	72%
1	23	Darien High School	Lincoln Academy	42%	upset
1	24	Sharon High School	Marthas Vineyard RHS	57%
1	25	Greens Farms Academy	Moses Brown School	82%
1	26	Dartmouth High School	Lincoln Academy	81%
1	27	East Greenwich High School	Marthas Vineyard RHS	49%	upset
1	28	Darien High School	Sharon High School	14%	upset
2	29	Moses Brown School	Lincoln Academy	50%	upset
2	30	Marthas Vineyard RHS	Greens Farms Academy	37%	upset
2	31	Dartmouth High School	Darien High School	85%
2	32	Sharon High School	East Greenwich High School	59%
2	33	Marthas Vineyard RHS	Lincoln Academy	73%
2	34	Darien High School	Moses Brown School	44%	upset
2	35	East Greenwich High School	Greens Farms Academy	36%	upset
2	36	Sharon High School	Dartmouth High School	50%
2	37	Marthas Vineyard RHS	Darien High School	77%
2	38	East Greenwich High School	Lincoln Academy	72%
2	39	Dartmouth High School	Moses Brown School	82%
2	40	Sharon High School	Greens Farms Academy	44%	upset
2	41	East Greenwich High School	Darien High School	77%
2	42	Dartmouth High School	Marthas Vineyard RHS	63%
2	43	Lincoln Academy	Greens Farms Academy	18%	upset
2	44	Sharon High School	Moses Brown School	82%
2	45	East Greenwich High School	Dartmouth High School	37%	upset
2	46	Darien High School	Greens Farms Academy	15%	upset
2	47	Moses Brown School	Marthas Vineyard RHS	28%	upset
2	48	Sharon High School	Lincoln Academy	78%
2	49	Dartmouth High School	Greens Farms Academy	49%	upset
2	50	East Greenwich High School	Moses Brown School	72%
2	51	Darien High School	Lincoln Academy	44%	upset
2	52	Marthas Vineyard RHS	Sharon High School	42%	upset
2	53	Greens Farms Academy	Moses Brown School	82%
2	54	Lincoln Academy	Dartmouth High School	18%	upset
2	55	East Greenwich High School	Marthas Vineyard RHS	50%	upset
2	56	Sharon High School	Darien High School	85%

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Quakers	1-5-6
2	Dragons	1-3-6	def.	Vineyarders	2-4-5
3	Blue Wave	1-2-6	def.	Sailing	3-4-5
4	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Avengers	4-5-6
5	Vineyarders	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
6	Quakers	1-2-3	def.	Blue Wave	4-5-6
7	Avengers	2-3-5	def.	Dragons	1-4-6
8	Sailing	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
9	Vineyarders	1-2-3	def.	Blue Wave	4-5-6
10	Avengers	1-3-4	def.	Eagles	2-5-6
11	Sailing	1-3-6	def.	Quakers	2-4-5
12	Dragons	1-3-4	def.	Eagles	2-5-6
13	Blue Wave	1-3-4	def.	Avengers	2-5-6
14	Vineyarders	1-2-4	def.	Sailing	3-5-6
15	Dragons	1-3-4	def.	Eagles	2-5-6
16	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
17	Avengers	1-2-4	def.	Sailing	3-5-6
18	Dragons	1-3-5	def.	Blue Wave	2-4-6
19	Vineyarders	1-2-4	def.	Quakers	3-5-6
20	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
21	Dragons	1-3-5	def.	Sailing	2-4-6
22	Avengers	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
23	Blue Wave	1-4-5	def.	Eagles	2-3-6
24	Eagles	2-3-5	def.	Vineyarders	1-4-6
25	Dragons	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
26	Sailing	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
27	Avengers	1-2-5	def.	Vineyarders	3-4-6
28	Blue Wave	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
29	Quakers	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
30	Vineyarders	1-3-4	def.	Dragons	2-5-6
31	Sailing	1-2-5	def.	Blue Wave	3-4-6
32	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Avengers	3-5-6
33	Vineyarders	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
34	Blue Wave	1-4-5	def.	Quakers	2-3-6
35	Avengers	2-3-4	def.	Dragons	1-5-6
36	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Sailing	4-5-6
37	Vineyarders	2-3-4	def.	Blue Wave	1-5-6
38	Avengers	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
39	Sailing	1-3-6	def.	Quakers	2-4-5
40	Eagles	1-3-4	def.	Dragons	2-5-6
41	Avengers	1-2-5	def.	Blue Wave	3-4-6
42	Sailing	1-3-6	def.	Vineyarders	2-4-5
43	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Dragons	1-5-6
44	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
45	Avengers	2-3-5	def.	Sailing	1-4-6
46	Blue Wave	1-3-5	def.	Dragons	2-4-6
47	Quakers	2-3-4	def.	Vineyarders	1-5-6
48	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
49	Sailing	1-2-5	def.	Dragons	3-4-6
50	Avengers	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
51	Blue Wave	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
52	Vineyarders	1-4-5	def.	Eagles	2-3-6
53	Dragons	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
54	Eagles	1-3-6	def.	Sailing	2-4-5
55	Avengers	2-3-4	def.	Vineyarders	1-5-6
56	Eagles	1-3-5	def.	Blue Wave	2-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
East Greenwich High School	Avengers	Neala Bijari '23 Owen Warren '24 Zachary Amelotte '23	Pierson Falk '24 Madeleine Jarbeau '24 Mara Oancea '23
Sharon High School	Eagles	Andrew Liu '23 Henry Do '23 Isabella Cho '23 Rohan Shah '23	Zander Lai '23 Akash Shah '23 Grace Kokkotos '23 Vidhur Busannagari '23
Marthas Vineyard RHS	Vineyarders	Griffin Stead '23 Sam Riley '23 Simon Hammarlund '24	Lyla Solway '24 Jocelyn Balinuas '24 Juliet Morse '23
Dartmouth High School	Sailing	Finn Sperry '26 Maisy Sperry '24 Sam Sperry '26	Tiago Lameiro '25 Phoebe Murray '26 Abigail Glaser '26 Mohamed Hijazi '25
Greens Farms Academy	Dragons	Ava Stevens '24 Emmet Ennico '25 Max Laferriere '23	Whitney Burton '25 Hadley Salem '25 Caroline Collins '26
Darien High School	Blue Wave	Gavin Hanig '26 Maxwell Connor '25 Oliver West '23	John Lubeley '26 Charlotte West '25 Finn Hagen '26 Brendan Haidinger '24 Ella Seymour '26
Lincoln Academy	Eagles	Griffin Chace '26 Kate Mason '23 Piper Carleton '24	Stella Field '25 Harper Shepard '25 Ottis Frost '25
Moses Brown School	Quakers	Merle Durant '23 Noah Hemingway '23 Otto Kalfelz '23	Marley Mills '24 Brooke Kelley '24 Ava Belli '24

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →