Sharon High School '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.18 (fleet 1.94) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 16–24 (40%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 2 | 16–15 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 0–9 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (40 matches) the record is 16–24 against 15.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.3). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-05-20 | National Invitational Tournament (Founders Trophy) | skipper | 1.57 | 1.86 | 6–11 | 5.2 | +0.29 | 0.1 | 43% |
| 2023-05-06 | NESSA Team Racing Tournament(Terk Trophy) | skipper | 1.42 | 1.79 | 10–4 | 9.2 | +0.37 | 0.2 | 44% |
| 2022-05-21 | National Invitational Tournament (NIT) | skipper | 1.31 | -1.69 | 0–9 | 1.3 | ≤−3.00 | 1.8 | >99% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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