2022 Atlantic Coast Championship

HostSevern Sailing Association
Date11/12/2022
TypeNational Invitational
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Severn School	Admirals	20	9	29
2	Ransom Everglades School	Raiders	50	45	95
3	St. George's School	Dragons	67	39	106
4	Archbishop Spalding	Cavaliers	43	71	114
5	Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs	67	48	115
6	The Stony Brook School	Bears	44	75	119
7	Christchurch School	Seahorses	56	77	133
8	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	63	84	147
9	Arrowhead High School	Warhawks	75	80	155
10	Minnetonka High School	Skippers	75	97	172
11	Barrington High School	Eagles	98	80	178
12	John T. Hoggard High School	Vikings Varsity	90	91	181
13	Holland Christian High School	Maroon	101	121	222
14	Bainbridge High School	Spartans	115	116	231
15	Jones College Prep	Eagles	133	102	235
16	Sharon High School	Varsity	134	114	248
17	Lincoln Academy	Eagles	132	129	261
18	Dublin Coffman	Rocks	141	157	298

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	TOT	Sailors
Severn School	Admirals	1	1	2	1	1	BKD	2	9	1	20	Thomas Sitzmann '23 [1-9] Scarlett Harris '24 [1-5] Jed Lory '23 [6-9]
Archbishop Spalding	Cavaliers	3	2	6	4	3	3	5	8	9	43	Hugh Carty '23 [1-9] Christina Pierce '25 [1-5] Madeline Washburn '23 [6-9]
The Stony Brook School	Bears	2	5	10	6	4	1	3	5	8	44	Gavin Hudson '24 [1-9] Amy Li '23 [1-2, 6-9] Mairead Reitzel '24 [3-5]
Ransom Everglades School	Raiders	10	3	16	2	2	10	1	2	4	50	Jackson Mcaliley '23 Manolo Campos '25
Christchurch School	Seahorses	9	11	1	13	6	2	6	BKD	2	56	Rafael "Rafa" De Tomas Pereda '25 [1-4] Maison Koepke '23 [5-9] Paul Rodrigues Jr '24 [1-4] Maria Del Rosario De Tomas Perello '23 [5-8] John "Peyton" Mcdonald '23 [9]
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	5	10	3	5	12	9	4	1	14	63	James Kopack '24 Caroline Felser '24
St. George's School	Dragons	4	6	13	7	7	5	12	6	7	67	Christian Ebbin '24 [1-9] Phoebe Fogarty '25 [1-2] South Fulweiler '25 [3-5] Jack Bolton '23 [6-9]
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs	6	12	9	9	5	8	11	4	3	67	Henry Allgeier '23 [1-9] Emily Britt '23 [1-2, 6-9] Audrey Permenter '23 [3-5]
Arrowhead High School	Warhawks	8	4	18	3	10	4	BKD	7	13	75	Charlie Allen '24 Riley Jensen '23
Minnetonka High School	Skippers	16	7	5	11	8	11	8	3	6	75	Jacob Zils '23 [1-9] Bryce Lesinski '23 [1-2, 6-9] Ana Stewart '23 [3-5]
John T. Hoggard High School	Vikings Varsity	7	9	7	8	13	BKD	10	15	11	90	Ben Usher '23 Jane Wright '24
Barrington High School	Eagles	13	15	4	16	9	7	9	10	15	98	Gus Macaulay '23 [1-9] George White '23 [1-2, 6-9] Quin Schneider '25 [3-5]
Holland Christian High School	Maroon	11	8	12	12	15	12	15	11	5	101	Greta Traver '23 Sophia Pierce '23
Bainbridge High School	Spartans	12	18	8	10	11	14	13	17	12	115	Ben Stone '23 [1-9] Elliott Chalcraft '23 [1-2, 6-9] Talia Esarey '24 [3-5]
Lincoln Academy	Eagles	15	17	17	17	14	16	14	12	10	132	Toby Clarkson '24 [1-4, 7-9] Otto Schoenthal '25 [5-6] Otto Schoenthal '25 [1-2, 7-9] Stella Field '25 [3-6]
Jones College Prep	Eagles	17	16	11	15	16	6	17	16	DNS	133	Jake Weinstein '23 [1-9] Damian Amoruso '26 [1-4] Gavin Eskilson '25 [5-9]
Sharon High School	Varsity	14	14	14	18	18	17	7	13	DNF	134	Andrew Liu '23 [1-4, 7-9] Isabella Cho '23 [5-6] Zander Lai '23 [1-4, 7-9] Grace Kokkotos '23 [5-6]
Dublin Coffman	Rocks	18	13	15	14	17	15	16	14	DNF	141	Emerson Becker '24 Gavin Grundei '25

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	TOT	Sailors
Severn School	Admirals	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	9	Robby Meek '23 [1-6, 9] Kyle Reinecke '23 [7-8] Lilly Baker '23 [1-4] Helena English '24 [5-6] John Szynal '24 [7-9]
St. George's School	Dragons	9	7	2	2	3	4	3	6	3	39	Emily Doble '24 [1-4] Gil Hackel '26 [5-9] Phoebe Fogarty '25 [1-4] Sloane Mullin '23 [5-9]
Ransom Everglades School	Raiders	8	6	8	5	2	7	2	3	4	45	Ian Fox '24 [1-9] Christine Keedy-Brown '24 [1-4] Violet Martin '24 [5-9]
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs	2	3	10	9	5	2	13	2	2	48	Sean Trudell '24 [1-9] Jack Poynter '25 [1-4] Rebecca Schill '23 [5-9]
Archbishop Spalding	Cavaliers	3	5	3	10	7	6	12	8	17	71	Owen Macwilliams '24 [1-9] Madeline Washburn '23 [1-4] Luke Farley '25 [5-9]
The Stony Brook School	Bears	5	4	11	16	4	8	8	12	7	75	Mauro Gonzales '24 [1-9] Sean Beaver '23 [1-4] Jp Bennet '23 [5-9]
Christchurch School	Seahorses	DSQ	11	7	3	12	9	7	4	5	77	Jeffrey "Jj" Klempen '23 [1-6] Jordan Viera '24 [7-9] Reid Nelson '24 [1-6] Paul Rodrigues Jr '24 [7-8] John "Peyton" Mcdonald '23 [9]
Arrowhead High School	Warhawks	4	8	5	6	BKD	5	17	13	13	80	Cole Schweda '23 [1-9] Ellie Siepmann '23 [1-4] Will Platten '23 [5-9]
Barrington High School	Eagles	16	2	14	4	8	DSQ	4	7	6	80	Christopher Chwalk '24 [1-4] Brendan Jay '23 [5-9] Avery Guck '24 [1-4] Christopher Chwalk '24 [5-9]
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	14	14	6	8	13	3	6	10	10	84	Kevin Brooksbank '23 [1-9] Nora Ciak '23 [1-8] Nicholas Fatigate '24 [9]
John T. Hoggard High School	Vikings Varsity	7	DSQ	16	7	6	14	5	9	8	91	Tavia Smith '23 Andrew Simpson '23
Minnetonka High School	Skippers	10	13	12	12	9	11	14	5	11	97	Marley Barrett '23 [1-9] Amelia Sulciner '24 [1-6] Ana Stewart '23 [7-9]
Jones College Prep	Eagles	6	15	9	17	11	12	9	11	12	102	Peter Stewart '24 [1-9] Betsy Finley '23 [1-4] Orla Gilroy '25 [5-9]
Sharon High School	Varsity	12	10	15	15	14	15	10	14	9	114	Henry Do '23 [1-4, 7-9] Rohan Shah '23 [5-6] Akash Shah '23 [1-2, 5-9] Angelina Manolios '23 [3-4]
Bainbridge High School	Spartans	11	12	4	11	15	16	15	16	16	116	Carter Anderson '23 [1-2] Ryan Downey '25 [3-9] Sabrina Anderson '24 [1-4] Carter Anderson '23 [5-9]
Holland Christian High School	Maroon	13	9	17	13	16	13	11	15	14	121	Amelia Traver '24 Lily Johnson '23
Lincoln Academy	Eagles	15	17	13	14	10	10	16	DNF	15	129	Piper Carleton '24 [1-9] Kate Mason '23 [1-6, 9] Stella Field '25 [7-8]
Dublin Coffman	Rocks	17	16	18	18	17	17	18	17	DNS	157	Evelyn Hannah '24 Kai Ellsworth '25

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.120+0.12

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A
Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9
Arrowhead High School Warhawks	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10
Bainbridge High School Spartans	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11
Barrington High School Eagles	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12
Christchurch School Seahorses	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14
Dublin Coffman Rocks	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	15
Holland Christian High School Maroon	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	16
John T. Hoggard High School Vikings Varsity	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15	17
Jones College Prep Eagles	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16	18
Lincoln Academy Eagles	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17	1
Minnetonka High School Skippers	12	12	14	14	16	16	18	18	2
Norfolk Academy Bulldogs	13	13	15	15	17	17	1	1	3
Ransom Everglades School Raiders	14	14	16	16	18	18	2	2	4
Severn School Admirals	15	15	17	17	1	1	3	3	5
Sharon High School Varsity	16	16	18	18	2	2	4	4	6
St. George's School Dragons	17	17	1	1	3	3	5	5	7
The Stony Brook School Bears	18	18	2	2	4	4	6	6	8

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B
Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10
Arrowhead High School Warhawks	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11
Bainbridge High School Spartans	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12
Barrington High School Eagles	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13
Christchurch School Seahorses	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	15
Dublin Coffman Rocks	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	16
Holland Christian High School Maroon	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15	17
John T. Hoggard High School Vikings Varsity	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16	18
Jones College Prep Eagles	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17	1
Lincoln Academy Eagles	12	12	14	14	16	16	18	18	2
Minnetonka High School Skippers	13	13	15	15	17	17	1	1	3
Norfolk Academy Bulldogs	14	14	16	16	18	18	2	2	4
Ransom Everglades School Raiders	15	15	17	17	1	1	3	3	5
Severn School Admirals	16	16	18	18	2	2	4	4	6
Sharon High School Varsity	17	17	1	1	3	3	5	5	7
St. George's School Dragons	18	18	2	2	4	4	6	6	8
The Stony Brook School Bears	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Archbishop Spalding	Hugh Carty '23 [1-9]	Christina Pierce '25 [1-5] Madeline Washburn '23 [6-9]
Cavaliers	Owen Macwilliams '24 [1-9]	Madeline Washburn '23 [1-4] Luke Farley '25 [5-9]
Arrowhead High School	Charlie Allen '24	Riley Jensen '23
Warhawks	Cole Schweda '23 [1-9]	Ellie Siepmann '23 [1-4] Will Platten '23 [5-9]
Bainbridge High School	Ben Stone '23 [1-9]	Elliott Chalcraft '23 [1-2, 6-9] Talia Esarey '24 [3-5]
Spartans	Carter Anderson '23 [1-2] Ryan Downey '25 [3-9]	Sabrina Anderson '24 [1-4] Carter Anderson '23 [5-9]
Barrington High School	Gus Macaulay '23 [1-9]	George White '23 [1-2, 6-9] Quin Schneider '25 [3-5]
Eagles	Christopher Chwalk '24 [1-4] Brendan Jay '23 [5-9]	Avery Guck '24 [1-4] Christopher Chwalk '24 [5-9]
Christchurch School	Rafael "Rafa" De Tomas Pereda '25 [1-4] Maison Koepke '23 [5-9]	Paul Rodrigues Jr '24 [1-4] Maria Del Rosario De Tomas Perello '23 [5-8] John "Peyton" Mcdonald '23 [9]
Seahorses	Jeffrey "Jj" Klempen '23 [1-6] Jordan Viera '24 [7-9]	Reid Nelson '24 [1-6] Paul Rodrigues Jr '24 [7-8] John "Peyton" Mcdonald '23 [9]
Donovan Catholic High School	James Kopack '24	Caroline Felser '24
Griffins	Kevin Brooksbank '23 [1-9]	Nora Ciak '23 [1-8] Nicholas Fatigate '24 [9]
Dublin Coffman	Emerson Becker '24	Gavin Grundei '25
Rocks	Evelyn Hannah '24	Kai Ellsworth '25
Holland Christian High School	Greta Traver '23	Sophia Pierce '23
Maroon	Amelia Traver '24	Lily Johnson '23
John T. Hoggard High School	Ben Usher '23	Jane Wright '24
Vikings Varsity	Tavia Smith '23	Andrew Simpson '23
Jones College Prep	Jake Weinstein '23 [1-9]	Damian Amoruso '26 [1-4] Gavin Eskilson '25 [5-9]
Eagles	Peter Stewart '24 [1-9]	Betsy Finley '23 [1-4] Orla Gilroy '25 [5-9]
Lincoln Academy	Toby Clarkson '24 [1-4, 7-9] Otto Schoenthal '25 [5-6]	Otto Schoenthal '25 [1-2, 7-9] Stella Field '25 [3-6]
Eagles	Piper Carleton '24 [1-9]	Kate Mason '23 [1-6, 9] Stella Field '25 [7-8]
Minnetonka High School	Jacob Zils '23 [1-9]	Bryce Lesinski '23 [1-2, 6-9] Ana Stewart '23 [3-5]
Skippers	Marley Barrett '23 [1-9]	Amelia Sulciner '24 [1-6] Ana Stewart '23 [7-9]
Norfolk Academy	Henry Allgeier '23 [1-9]	Emily Britt '23 [1-2, 6-9] Audrey Permenter '23 [3-5]
Bulldogs	Sean Trudell '24 [1-9]	Jack Poynter '25 [1-4] Rebecca Schill '23 [5-9]
Ransom Everglades School	Jackson Mcaliley '23	Manolo Campos '25
Raiders	Ian Fox '24 [1-9]	Christine Keedy-Brown '24 [1-4] Violet Martin '24 [5-9]
Severn School	Thomas Sitzmann '23 [1-9]	Scarlett Harris '24 [1-5] Jed Lory '23 [6-9]
Admirals	Robby Meek '23 [1-6, 9] Kyle Reinecke '23 [7-8]	Lilly Baker '23 [1-4] Helena English '24 [5-6] John Szynal '24 [7-9]
Sharon High School	Andrew Liu '23 [1-4, 7-9] Isabella Cho '23 [5-6]	Zander Lai '23 [1-4, 7-9] Grace Kokkotos '23 [5-6]
Varsity	Henry Do '23 [1-4, 7-9] Rohan Shah '23 [5-6]	Akash Shah '23 [1-2, 5-9] Angelina Manolios '23 [3-4]
St. George's School	Christian Ebbin '24 [1-9]	Phoebe Fogarty '25 [1-2] South Fulweiler '25 [3-5] Jack Bolton '23 [6-9]
Dragons	Emily Doble '24 [1-4] Gil Hackel '26 [5-9]	Phoebe Fogarty '25 [1-4] Sloane Mullin '23 [5-9]
The Stony Brook School	Gavin Hudson '24 [1-9]	Amy Li '23 [1-2, 6-9] Mairead Reitzel '24 [3-5]
Bears	Mauro Gonzales '24 [1-9]	Sean Beaver '23 [1-4] Jp Bennet '23 [5-9]

Conditions — 11/12/2022 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 64% · Pressure 1006.8 hPa

Temperature

67°F

↑ 70°F ↓ 62°F

Feels like 65°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

5.7 kn

avg · max 9.2 kn

Gusts to 23.9 kn

From WSW (259°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover32% Sunshine9.8 hrs Humidity64% Pressure1006.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 14 kn · W 16 kn (scorer’s report)

In this breeze at Severn Sailing Association: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.15)

Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.

Fleet adjustment −0.11 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast +0.04

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.10 ± 0.10)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.15 means a rating gap counts about 13% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Severn Sailing Association by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 5 labelled days at Severn Sailing Association, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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