St. George's School '24
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.71 (fleet 4.36) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 76–25 (75%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 2 | 31–6 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 2 | 24–9 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 2 | 21–10 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (101 matches) the record is 76–25 against 70.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+5.1). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-17 | 2024 ISSA Baker Team Race National Championship | skipper | 3.14 | 3.37 | 12–5 | 11.4 | +0.23 | 0.1 | 49% |
| 2024-05-04 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy) | skipper | 3.12 | 4.95 | 19–1 | 16.7 | +1.83 | 2.0 | 12% |
| 2023-05-20 | National Invitational Tournament (Founders Trophy) | skipper | 3.02 | 3.78 | 11–2 | 9.8 | +0.76 | 0.5 | 34% |
| 2023-05-06 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy) | skipper | 2.75 | 2.24 | 13–7 | 14.6 | −0.51 | 0.5 | 86% |
| 2022-05-21 | Baker Trophy 2022 | skipper | 2.32 | 2.54 | 6–5 | 5.6 | +0.22 | 0.0 | 53% |
| 2022-05-14 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy) | skipper | 2.00 | 2.73 | 15–5 | 12.9 | +0.73 | 0.9 | 21% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Christian Ebbin |  Tulane University |
'28 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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