2024 ISSA Baker Team Race National Championship

HostBainbridge/Oak Harbor
Date05/17/2024
TypeNational Championship
BoatCFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Point Loma High School	Pointers	14–3
2	Mater Dei High School	Monarchs	12–5
3	St. George's School	Dragons	12–5
4	The Hotchkiss School	Bearcats	10–7
5	Severn School	Admirals	11–6
6	Lake Forest High School	Scouts	10–7
7	Antilles School	Hurricanes	9–8
8	Clear Falls High School	Knights	5–12
9	Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs	8–9
10	Ransom Everglades School	Raiders	7–10
11	Bainbridge High School	Spartans	2–15
12	Jones College Prep	Eagles	2–15

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 11,364 team race matches sailed before 2024-05-17, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 77 of 102 matches (76%) with a log-loss of 0.480 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.15 ± 0.25: a typical event, more orderly than 52% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Point Loma High School Pointers	2	8.86 school +0.13	Wyatt Kelly / Preston Miller Harrison Strom / Jonah Wozniak 2.92 Anton Schmid / Sabrina Anderson 3.11 12–2 Anton Schmid / Skye Terrell 2.84 2–1	65%	14–3 (82%)	+2.9
2	Mater Dei High School Monarchs	3	8.92 school −0.11	Chase Decker / Ashtyn Tierney 3.19 Noah Stapleton / Hannah Crompton 2.80 Tate Christopher / Madison Mansour 2.99 11–5 Tate Christopher / Elizabeth Struve 2.79 1–0	63%	12–5 (71%)	+1.3
3	St. George's School Dragons	1	9.15 school +0.51	Gil Hackel / Max Miller 2.95 6–5 Pearse Dowd / Grace Patterson 2.41 5–5 Christian Ebbin / Avery Peterson 3.14 7–2 Christian Ebbin / Phoebe Fogarty 3.26 5–3 Pearse Dowd / Kate Myles 2.46 7–0 Gil Hackel / Phoebe Fogarty 3.04 6–0	67%	12–5 (71%)	+0.6
4	The Hotchkiss School Bearcats	8	8.41 school +0.34	Fynn Olsen / Dhruv Kothari 2.58 Samara Walshe / Dasha Gracheva 2.81 9–5 Pierce Olsen / Miranda Beitel 2.75 6–4 Pierce Olsen / Phoebe Hackett 2.82 4–3 Caleb Kinnear / Miranda Beitel 1.87 1–2	54%	10–7 (59%)	+0.8
5	Severn School Admirals	5	8.35	Harrison Szot / Charlotte Macdonald 2.67 Alex Baker / Reese Corckran 2.89 9–5 Annie Sitzmann / Helena English 2.94 6–4 Annie Sitzmann / John Szynal 2.72 5–2 Ava Cornell / Scarlett Harris 2.46 2–1	62%	11–6 (65%)	+0.4
6	Lake Forest High School Scouts	4	8.29 school +0.43	Tristan Mcdonald / Maddie Rode 2.48 Charlie Gish / Mary Carter 2.67 6–4 Owen Kohut / Jackson Schwartz 2.70 6–4 Charlie Gish / Nicole Janowicz 2.48 4–3 Owen Kohut / Mary Carter 2.84 4–3	63%	10–7 (59%)	−0.7
7	Antilles School Hurricanes	7	7.91 school +0.38	Tanner Krygsveld / Halina Diehl 3.18 8–8 Alejo Diblasi / Mia Ronen 1.89 7–8 Robert Richards / Greg Degraff 2.37 7–3 Robert Richards / Rena Yu 2.44 2–5 Alejo Diblasi / Isabell Thill 1.71 2–0 Tanner Krygsveld / Benjamin Thill 3.00 1–0	54%	9–8 (53%)	−0.2
8	Clear Falls High School Knights	11	5.64 school +0.46	Ewan Dossin / Derek Perdue 1.79 Polsen Blake / Kale Bendele 1.42 Korbin Bendele / Ben Vickers 1.86	16%	5–12 (29%)	+2.3
9	Norfolk Academy Bulldogs	6	7.87 school +0.29	James Allgeier / Marin Soderberg 2.96 Hunter Wheary / Anna Iacobucci 2.06 7–7 Sean Trudell / Sabrina Casagrande 2.60 5–5 Sean Trudell / Jack Poynter 2.52 3–4 Hunter Wheary / Jack Poynter 1.95 1–2	60%	8–9 (47%)	−2.2
10	Ransom Everglades School Raiders	9	7.53	Griggs Diemar / Manolo Campos 3.19 7–9 Sebastian Van De Kreeke / Kayra Serpenguzel 2.21 7–8 Garrett Fox / Leyla Amjad 7–8 Garrett Fox / Kayra Serpenguzel 0–2 Ava Mc Aliley / Leyla Amjad 0–2 Sebastian Van De Kreeke / Manolo Campos 2.31 0–1	53%	7–10 (41%)	−2.1
11	Bainbridge High School Spartans	12	5.07 school +0.27	Alexander Turloff / Beckett Ladenburg 1.70 0–11 Adam Turloff / Cyrus Yan 1.76 0–9 Nelson Dorsey / Talia Esarey 1.59 0–8 Joseph Tappen / Carson Domansky 1.35 0–5 Joseph Tappen / Talia Esarey 1.42 0–4 Nelson Dorsey / Beckett Ladenburg 1.58 2–2 Joseph Tappen / Cyrus Yan 1.31 2–1 Alexander Turloff / Holden Goodham 1.62 2–1 Adam Turloff / Holden Goodham 1.77 0–1 Nelson Dorsey / Holden Goodham 1.50 0–1 Nelson Dorsey / Cyrus Yan 1.51 0–1 Nelson Dorsey / Joseph Tappen 1.60 0–1	15%	2–15 (12%)	−0.5
12	Jones College Prep Eagles	10	5.89	Gavin Eskilson / Damian Amoruso 1.52 Grace Renz / Duke Diep 2.06 Nissa Berman / Orla Gilroy 2.23	27%	2–15 (12%)	−2.6

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Point Loma High School	8.86	10.13	14–3	11.1	+1.27	1.9	9%
8	Clear Falls High School	5.64	6.78	5–12	2.7	+1.14	1.6	11%
2	Mater Dei High School	8.92	9.41	12–5	10.7	+0.49	0.4	34%
4	The Hotchkiss School	8.41	8.72	10–7	9.2	+0.31	0.1	43%
3	St. George's School	9.15	9.38	12–5	11.4	+0.23	0.1	49%
5	Severn School	8.35	8.51	11–6	10.6	+0.17	0.0	52%
7	Antilles School	7.91	7.82	9–8	9.2	−0.08	0.0	65%
6	Lake Forest High School	8.29	8.04	10–7	10.7	−0.25	0.1	74%
11	Bainbridge High School	5.07	4.70	2–15	2.5	−0.38	0.1	76%
10	Ransom Everglades School	7.53	6.67	7–10	9.1	−0.86	1.0	93%
9	Norfolk Academy	7.87	6.96	8–9	10.2	−0.91	1.2	94%
12	Jones College Prep	5.89	4.20	2–15	4.6	−1.69	2.3	98%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Anton Schmid	Point Loma High School	3.11	4.37	14–3	11.1	+1.27	1.9	9%
Ewan Dossin	Clear Falls High School	1.79	2.94	5–12	2.7	+1.14	1.6	11%
Polsen Blake	Clear Falls High School	1.42	2.56	5–12	2.7	+1.14	1.6	11%
Ava Cornell	Severn School	2.46	3.53	2–1	1.4	+1.07	0.4	45%
Gil Hackel	St. George's School	2.95	3.19	12–5	11.4	+0.23	0.1	49%
Annie Sitzmann	Severn School	2.94	3.10	11–6	10.6	+0.17	0.0	52%
Harrison Szot	Severn School	2.67	2.83	11–6	10.6	+0.17	0.0	52%
Alejo Diblasi	Antilles School	1.89	1.80	9–8	9.2	−0.08	0.0	65%
Alex Baker	Severn School	2.89	2.80	9–5	9.2	−0.08	0.0	67%
Alexander Turloff	Bainbridge High School	1.70	1.47	2–12	2.3	−0.23	0.0	71%
Charlie Gish	Lake Forest High School	2.67	2.42	10–7	10.7	−0.25	0.1	74%
Garrett Fox	Ransom Everglades School	2.08	1.22	7–10	9.1	−0.86	1.0	93%
Hunter Wheary	Norfolk Academy	2.06	1.15	8–9	10.2	−0.91	1.2	94%
Adam Turloff	Bainbridge High School	1.76	-1.24	0–10	1.3	≤−3.00	1.9	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Mater Dei High School	Ransom Everglades School	75%
1	2	Point Loma High School	Antilles School	69%
1	3	St. George's School	Jones College Prep	93%
1	4	The Hotchkiss School	Clear Falls High School	91%
1	5	Norfolk Academy	Bainbridge High School	91%
1	6	Lake Forest High School	Severn School	54%
1	7	St. George's School	Ransom Everglades School	78%
1	8	The Hotchkiss School	Antilles School	63%
1	9	Mater Dei High School	Jones College Prep	92%
1	10	Point Loma High School	Clear Falls High School	93%
1	11	Ransom Everglades School	Bainbridge High School	85%
1	12	Lake Forest High School	Antilles School	56%
1	13	St. George's School	Norfolk Academy	74%
1	14	The Hotchkiss School	Severn School	52%
1	15	Mater Dei High School	Bainbridge High School	95%
1	16	Point Loma High School	Lake Forest High School	62%
1	17	Ransom Everglades School	Jones College Prep	79%
1	18	Antilles School	Clear Falls High School	86%
1	19	Mater Dei High School	Norfolk Academy	66%
1	20	Severn School	Point Loma High School	38%	upset
1	21	St. George's School	Bainbridge High School	96%
1	22	Lake Forest High School	The Hotchkiss School	44%	upset
1	23	Norfolk Academy	Jones College Prep	83%
1	24	Severn School	Clear Falls High School	89%
1	25	St. George's School	Mater Dei High School	55%
1	26	Point Loma High School	The Hotchkiss School	68%
1	27	Norfolk Academy	Ransom Everglades School	57%
1	28	Antilles School	Severn School	42%	upset
1	29	Jones College Prep	Bainbridge High School	70%
1	30	Clear Falls High School	Lake Forest High School	11%	upset
1	31	The Hotchkiss School	Ransom Everglades School	68%
1	32	Point Loma High School	Mater Dei High School	49%	upset
1	33	St. George's School	Antilles School	72%
1	34	Severn School	Norfolk Academy	63%
1	35	Clear Falls High School	Jones College Prep	45%	upset
1	36	Lake Forest High School	Bainbridge High School	93%
1	37	The Hotchkiss School	Mater Dei High School	42%	upset
1	38	Antilles School	Ransom Everglades School	57%
1	39	Point Loma High School	Norfolk Academy	69%
1	40	St. George's School	Lake Forest High School	66%
1	41	Clear Falls High School	Bainbridge High School	55%
1	42	Severn School	Jones College Prep	89%
1	43	Point Loma High School	Ransom Everglades School	74%
1	44	Antilles School	Norfolk Academy	51%
1	45	Mater Dei High School	Lake Forest High School	62%
1	46	St. George's School	Clear Falls High School	94%
1	47	The Hotchkiss School	Jones College Prep	89%
1	48	Severn School	Bainbridge High School	93%
1	49	Lake Forest High School	Norfolk Academy	60%
1	50	Clear Falls High School	Ransom Everglades School	18%	upset
1	51	Point Loma High School	St. George's School	47%	upset
1	52	Mater Dei High School	Antilles School	69%
1	53	The Hotchkiss School	Bainbridge High School	95%
1	54	Lake Forest High School	Jones College Prep	87%
1	55	Severn School	Ransom Everglades School	69%
1	56	Norfolk Academy	Clear Falls High School	84%
1	57	Antilles School	Bainbridge High School	89%
1	58	Point Loma High School	Jones College Prep	91%
1	59	St. George's School	The Hotchkiss School	61%
1	60	Mater Dei High School	Severn School	58%
1	61	Lake Forest High School	Ransom Everglades School	79%
1	62	Point Loma High School	Bainbridge High School	94%
1	63	Antilles School	Jones College Prep	78%
1	64	The Hotchkiss School	Norfolk Academy	65%
1	65	Mater Dei High School	Clear Falls High School	93%
1	66	St. George's School	Severn School	62%
1	67	St. George's School	The Hotchkiss School	61%
1	68	Point Loma High School	Mater Dei High School	49%	upset
1	69	Lake Forest High School	Clear Falls High School	89%
1	70	Norfolk Academy	Bainbridge High School	91%
1	71	Mater Dei High School	St. George's School	46%	upset
1	72	The Hotchkiss School	Point Loma High School	31%	upset
1	73	Antilles School	Severn School	43%	upset
1	74	Jones College Prep	Ransom Everglades School	21%	upset
1	75	Mater Dei High School	The Hotchkiss School	57%
1	76	Point Loma High School	St. George's School	48%	upset
1	77	Severn School	Lake Forest High School	47%	upset
1	78	Norfolk Academy	Jones College Prep	83%
1	79	Antilles School	Clear Falls High School	86%
1	80	Ransom Everglades School	Bainbridge High School	85%
1	81	Lake Forest High School	Antilles School	55%
1	82	Ransom Everglades School	Norfolk Academy	45%	upset
1	83	Severn School	Clear Falls High School	89%
1	84	Bainbridge High School	Jones College Prep	30%	upset
2	85	The Hotchkiss School	St. George's School	39%	upset
2	86	Point Loma High School	Mater Dei High School	49%	upset
2	87	Clear Falls High School	Lake Forest High School	11%	upset
2	88	Norfolk Academy	Bainbridge High School	91%
2	89	Mater Dei High School	St. George's School	46%	upset
2	90	Point Loma High School	The Hotchkiss School	69%
2	91	Severn School	Antilles School	57%
2	92	Ransom Everglades School	Jones College Prep	79%
2	93	Mater Dei High School	The Hotchkiss School	57%
2	94	St. George's School	Point Loma High School	52%
2	95	Severn School	Lake Forest High School	47%	upset
2	96	Norfolk Academy	Jones College Prep	83%
2	97	Antilles School	Clear Falls High School	86%
2	98	Ransom Everglades School	Bainbridge High School	85%
2	99	Lake Forest High School	Antilles School	55%
2	100	Ransom Everglades School	Norfolk Academy	45%	upset
2	101	Severn School	Clear Falls High School	89%
2	102	Bainbridge High School	Jones College Prep	30%	upset

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Raiders	3-5-6
2	Pointers	1-2-3	def.	Hurricanes	4-5-6
3	Dragons	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
4	Bearcats	1-2-6	def.	Knights	3-4-5
5	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Spartans	3-4-6
6	Scouts	1-2-5	def.	Admirals	3-4-6
7	Dragons	1-2-3	def.	Raiders	4-5-6
8	Bearcats	1-2-5	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-6
9	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
10	Pointers	1-2-3	def.	Knights	4-5-6
11	Raiders	1-2-4	def.	Spartans	3-5-6
12	Scouts	2-3-5	def.	Hurricanes	1-4-6 OCS
13	Dragons	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
14	Bearcats	1-2-3	def.	Admirals	4-5-6
15	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Spartans	3-4-6
16	Pointers	1-2-5	def.	Scouts	3-4-6
17	Raiders	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
18	Hurricanes	1-2-3	def.	Knights	4-5-6
19	Monarchs	2-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	1-5-6
20	Admirals	1-2-5	def.	Pointers	3-4-6
21	Dragons	1-2-3	def.	Spartans	4-5-6
22	Scouts	1-2-6	def.	Bearcats	3-4-5
23	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
24	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Knights	4-5-6
25	Dragons	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
26	Pointers	1-2-3	def.	Bearcats	4-5-6
27	Bulldogs	1-4-5	def.	Raiders	2-3-6
28	Hurricanes	1-2-6	def.	Admirals	3-4-5
29	Eagles	1-3-6	def.	Spartans	2-4-5
30	Knights	2-3-4	def.	Scouts	1-5-6
31	Bearcats	1-2-5	def.	Raiders	3-4-6
32	Pointers	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
33	Dragons	2-3-4	def.	Hurricanes	1-5-6
34	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
35	Knights	1-3-4	def.	Eagles	2-5-6
36	Scouts	1-3-5	def.	Spartans	2-4-6
37	Bearcats	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
38	Hurricanes	1-3-6	def.	Raiders	2-4-5
39	Pointers	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
40	Dragons	1-2-6	def.	Scouts	3-4-5
41	Knights	1-2-5	def.	Spartans	3-4-6
42	Admirals	1-3-5	def.	Eagles	2-4-6
43	Pointers	1-2-4	def.	Raiders	3-5-6
44	Hurricanes	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
45	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Scouts	3-4-6
46	Dragons	1-2-4	def.	Knights	3-5-6
47	Bearcats	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
48	Admirals	1-2-4	def.	Spartans	3-5-6
49	Scouts	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
50	Knights	1-2-3	def.	Raiders	4-5-6
51	Pointers	1-2-5	def.	Dragons	3-4-6
52	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-6
53	Bearcats	1-2-3	def.	Spartans	4-5-6
54	Scouts	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
55	Admirals	1-2-6	def.	Raiders	3-4-5
56	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Knights	3-4-5
57	Hurricanes	1-2-3	def.	Spartans	4-5-6
58	Pointers	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
59	Dragons	1-2-6	def.	Bearcats	3-4-5
60	Monarchs	1-4-5	def.	Admirals	2-3-6
61	Scouts	1-2-3	def.	Raiders	4-5-6
62	Pointers	1-2-4	def.	Spartans	3-5-6
63	Hurricanes	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
64	Bearcats	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
65	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Knights	4-5-6
66	Dragons	1-2-4	def.	Admirals	3-5-6
67	Dragons	1-2-4	def.	Bearcats	3-5-6
68	Pointers	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
69	Scouts	1-2-3	def.	Knights	4-5-6
70	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Spartans	3-5-6
71	Monarchs	1-2-6	def.	Dragons	3-4-5
72	Bearcats	2-3-4	def.	Pointers	1-5-6
73	Hurricanes	1-2-5	def.	Admirals	3-4-6
74	Eagles	1-4-5	def.	Raiders	2-3-6
75	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Bearcats	3-5-6
76	Pointers	1-2-4	def.	Dragons	3-5-6
77	Admirals	2-3-4	def.	Scouts	1-5-6
78	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
79	Hurricanes	1-2-4	def.	Knights	3-5-6
80	Raiders	1-2-3	def.	Spartans	4-5-6
81	Scouts	2-3-4	def.	Hurricanes	1-5-6
82	Raiders	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
83	Admirals	1-2-4	def.	Knights	3-5-6
84	Spartans	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
85	Bearcats	1-2-3	def.	Dragons	4-5-6
86	Pointers	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
87	Knights	1-2-6	def.	Scouts	3-4-5
88	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Spartans	3-4-5
89	Monarchs	1-3-5	def.	Dragons	2-4-6
90	Pointers	1-3-5	def.	Bearcats	2-4-6
91	Admirals	1-4-5	def.	Hurricanes	2-3-6
92	Raiders	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
93	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Bearcats	4-5-6
94	Dragons	1-2-6	def.	Pointers	3-4-5
95	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Scouts	4-5-6
96	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
97	Hurricanes	1-2-5	def.	Knights	3-4-6
98	Raiders	1-2-6	def.	Spartans	3-4-5
99	Scouts	1-2-6	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-5
100	Raiders	2-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	1-5-6
101	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Knights	4-5-6
102	Spartans	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Point Loma High School	Pointers	Anton Schmid '26 Harrison Strom '24 Wyatt Kelly '26	Sabrina Anderson '24 Skye Terrell '25 Jonah Wozniak '25 Preston Miller '24
Mater Dei High School	Monarchs	Chase Decker '24 Noah Stapleton '25 Tate Christopher '25	Ashtyn Tierney '24 Hannah Crompton '26 Madison Mansour '26 Elizabeth Struve '24
St. George's School	Dragons	Christian Ebbin '24 Gil Hackel '26 Pearse Dowd '25	Avery Peterson '26 Phoebe Fogarty '25 Max Miller '24 Kate Myles '25 Grace Patterson '25
The Hotchkiss School	Bearcats	Caleb Kinnear '25 Fynn Olsen '25 Pierce Olsen '25 Samara Walshe '25	Miranda Beitel '25 Dhruv Kothari '25 Phoebe Hackett '24 Dasha Gracheva '26
Severn School	Admirals	Alex Baker '26 Annie Sitzmann '26 Ava Cornell '24 Harrison Szot '27	Reese Corckran '24 Helena English '24 John Szynal '24 Scarlett Harris '24 Charlotte Macdonald '26
Lake Forest High School	Scouts	Charlie Gish '24 Owen Kohut '25 Tristan Mcdonald '24	Mary Carter '24 Nicole Janowicz '27 Jackson Schwartz '25 Maddie Rode '26
Antilles School	Hurricanes	Alejo Diblasi '25 Robert Richards '25 Tanner Krygsveld '25	Mia Ronen '25 Isabell Thill '25 Rena Yu '27 Greg Degraff '24 Halina Diehl '26 Benjamin Thill '25
Clear Falls High School	Knights	Ewan Dossin '26 Korbin Bendele '25 Polsen Blake '25	Derek Perdue '30 Ben Vickers '24 Kale Bendele '27
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs	Hunter Wheary '24 James Allgeier '27 Sean Trudell '24	Anna Iacobucci '25 Jack Poynter '25 Marin Soderberg '24 Sabrina Casagrande '25
Ransom Everglades School	Raiders	Ava Mc Aliley '26 Garrett Fox '26 Griggs Diemar '25 Sebastian Van De Kreeke '25	Leyla Amjad '26 Kayra Serpenguzel '25 Manolo Campos '25
Bainbridge High School	Spartans	Adam Turloff '24 Alexander Turloff '24 Joseph Tappen '25 Nelson Dorsey '26	Cyrus Yan '26 Holden Goodham '26 Beckett Ladenburg '27 Carson Domansky '26 Talia Esarey '24 Joseph Tappen '25
Jones College Prep	Eagles	Gavin Eskilson '25 Grace Renz '26 Nissa Berman '26	Damian Amoruso '26 Duke Diep '27 Orla Gilroy '25

Conditions — 05/17/2024 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 57% · Pressure 1019.9 hPa

Temperature

55°F

↑ 57°F ↓ 51°F

Feels like 47°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

12.6 kn

avg · max 16.8 kn

Gusts to 25.9 kn

From W (268°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover49% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity57% Pressure1019.9 hPa Rain0.01 in

What this breeze does at Bainbridge/Oak Harbor — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 14 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Bainbridge/Oak Harbor in this breeze: a typical day (+0.02)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Bainbridge/Oak Harbor by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Bainbridge/Oak Harbor: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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