Lake Forest High School '26
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 15.63 percentile among ISSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.095 rating points from 136 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →Includes linked high school and college seasons.
| Season | Team | Rating | Range | League percentile |
Team percentile |
On team | Races | Team page |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2025 | Lake Forest College | 1.08 | 73.71 | 50.00 | 2 of 3 | 10 | Team page | |
| Spring 2025 | Lake Forest College | 1.73 | 78.40 | 30.00 | 4 of 5 | 18 | Team page | |
| Fall 2024 | Lake Forest College | 1.60 | 80.86 | 30.00 | 4 of 5 | 16 | Team page | |
| Spring 2024 | Lake Forest College | 1.16 | 68.04 | 25.00 | 5 of 6 | 39 | Team page | |
| Spring 2023 | Lake Forest College | 1.84 | 83.09 | 12.50 | 4 of 4 | 17 | Team page | |
| Fall 2022 | Lake Forest College | 0.43 | 50.48 | 5.56 | 9 of 9 | 24 | Team page |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.35 (fleet 2.23) | 113 of 231 | −0.03 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 17–16 (52%) as crew 74–24 (76%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 2 | 17–16 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 3 | — | 25–11 |
| Spring 2024 | 3 | — | 26–9 |
| Spring 2023 | 3 | — | 23–4 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 11 graded regattas (131 matches) the record is 91–40 against 95.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−4.8). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 5 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 10 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | 2026 MISSA Baker Championship | skipper | 1.72 | 0.99 | 13–15 | 16.0 | −0.73 | 1.2 | 93% |
| 2026-04-11 | MISSA SW Baker Pre-Qualifier | skipper | 1.61 | 2.33 | 4–1 | 3.6 | +0.71 | 0.2 | 55% |
| 2025-05-16 | ISSA Baker Team Race Championship | crew | 2.75 | 1.66 | 7–10 | 9.6 | −1.09 | 1.6 | 96% |
| 2025-04-26 | GPYC - MISSA Baker Qualifier | crew | 2.83 | 3.31 | 11–1 | 10.6 | +0.48 | 0.1 | 59% |
| 2025-04-12 | 2025 MISSA SW Baker Pre-Qualifier | crew | 2.78 | 5.78 | 7–0 | 6.4 | ≥+3.00 | 0.9 | 50% |
| 2024-05-17 | 2024 ISSA Baker Team Race National Championship | crew | 2.48 | 2.22 | 10–7 | 10.7 | −0.25 | 0.1 | 74% |
| 2024-05-04 | MISSA Baker Qualifier 2024 | crew | 2.56 | 1.08 | 10–2 | 11.3 | −1.48 | 1.2 | 97% |
| 2024-04-20 | MISSA Central Baker Qualifier | crew | 2.50 | 5.50 | 6–0 | 5.8 | ≥+3.00 | 0.3 | 82% |
| 2023-05-20 | 2023 Baker National Championship | crew | 2.86 | 0.93 | 1–4 | 2.2 | −1.94 | 1.3 | 97% |
| 2023-05-06 | MISSA Baker Qualifier | crew | 2.80 | 5.80 | 9–0 | 8.0 | ≥+3.00 | 1.4 | 34% |
| 2023-04-22 | MISSA Central Baker Qualifier | crew | 2.43 | 5.43 | 13–0 | 11.6 | ≥+3.00 | 1.9 | 23% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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