Atlantic Coast Championship

HostArchbishop Spalding/Broadneck
Date11/02/2024
TypeNational Invitational
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Christchurch School	Seahorses	66	30	96
2	Severn School	Admirals	64	47	111
3	St. George's School	Dragons	70	59	129
4	Hampton Roads Academy	Navigators	71	66	137
5	Lake Forest High School	Scouts	78	96	174
6	Tabor Academy	Seawolves	80	104	184
7	Ransom Everglades School	Raiders	109	91	200
8	Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs	66	140	206
9	The Stony Brook School	Bears	101	108	209
10	Greens Farms Academy	Dragons	105	107	212
11	Arrowhead High School	Warhawks	123	89	212
12	Southern Regional High School	Rams	128	106	234
13	Black River Public School	Varsity	108	136	244
14	Barrington High School	Eagles	127	118	245
15	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts	118	145	263
16	Bainbridge High School	Spartans	148	119	267
17	Jones College Prep	Eagles	141	161	302
18	Porter-Gaud School	Cyclones	177	143	320

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	TOT	Sailors
Severn School	Admirals	5	4	9	7	3	1	1	7	12	7	8	64	Annie Sitzmann '26 Annabelle Ulak '26
Christchurch School	Seahorses	1	5	8	13	4	13	3	2	6	4	7	66	Bo Angus '25 Brooke Mertz '26
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs	OCS	3	4	5	11	4	5	11	2	1	1	66	James Allgeier '27 Sabrina Casagrande '25
St. George's School	Dragons	6	17	5	4	7	7	6	3	3	6	6	70	Gil Hackel '26 Phoebe Fogarty '25
Hampton Roads Academy	Navigators	4	1	1	18	1	2	14	1	11	9	9	71	Parker Moore '25 [1-11] Nicholas Bielewicz '26 [1-2, 8] Daphne Ambrosino '27 [3-7, 9-11]
Lake Forest High School	Scouts	8	12	2	11	5	10	2	16	5	2	5	78	Owen Kohut '25 Maddie Rode '26
Tabor Academy	Seawolves	13	13	7	3	13	8	11	6	1	3	2	80	Peter Herlihy '25 Theo Binder '25
The Stony Brook School	Bears	3	14	12	10	8	12	4	12	18	5	3	101	Arancha Rivero-Ansed '27 [1-11] Joshua Henson '25 [1-6, 8-10] Nora Beaver '27 [7, 11]
Greens Farms Academy	Dragons	9	6	3	8	2	6	7	15	17	13	DSQ	105	Glen Foster '26 [1-11] Caroline Collins '26 [1-10] Ollie Ennico '28 [11]
Black River Public School	Varsity	15	8	11	14	14	3	9	10	4	10	10	108	Lj Nykamp '25 Anneke Hackney '25
Ransom Everglades School	Raiders	2	18	13	1	15	11	8	8	9	12	12	109	Ava Mc Aliley '26 Manolo Campos '25
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts	7	2	15	16	6	15	10	5	13	18	11	118	Cole Buczkowski '27 Matthew Dupree '25
Arrowhead High School	Warhawks	11	11	16	12	9	16	13	9	8	14	4	123	John Lieber '26 Mark Sellers '26
Barrington High School	Eagles	12	10	6	9	17	14	15	14	10	8	BKD	127	Duffy Macaulay '27 Quin Schneider '25
Southern Regional High School	Rams	14	7	10	6	10	5	17	13	14	15	17	128	Turner Ryon '25 [1-8] Gannon Botwinick '27 [9-11] Belle Placa '25 [1-10] Turner Ryon '25 [11]
Jones College Prep	Eagles	16	15	17	2	12	17	18	4	15	11	14	141	Gavin Eskilson '25 [1-11] Jack Eskilson '28 [1-6, 8-11] Alton Lipford '25 [7]
Bainbridge High School	Spartans	10	9	14	17	16	9	16	17	7	17	16	148	Nelson Dorsey '26 [1-11] Beckett Ladenburg '27 [1-10] Holden Goodham '26 [11]
Porter-Gaud School	Cyclones	17	16	18	15	18	18	12	18	16	16	13	177	Granger Osborne '26 Tucker Payne '27

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	TOT	Sailors
Christchurch School	Seahorses	1	1	4	4	3	3	4	1	1	3	5	30	Wylder Smith '27 [1-11] Malia Deane '25 [1-6, 9-11] Simone Moss '25 [7-8]
Severn School	Admirals	7	10	7	8	2	1	6	2	2	1	1	47	Harrison Szot '27 [1-2] Alex Baker '26 [3-11] Ana Fishback '27 [1-2] Hudson Grow '28 [3-4] Charlotte Macdonald '26 [5-11]
St. George's School	Dragons	8	12	1	1	1	6	12	8	3	4	3	59	Pearse Dowd '25 [1-11] Avery Peterson '26 [1-6, 9-11] Grace Patterson '25 [7-8]
Hampton Roads Academy	Navigators	3	2	9	6	6	8	2	13	4	5	8	66	Leila Pfrang '25 [1-11] Josie Brindley '26 [1-6, 9-11] Patrick Bielewicz '28 [7-8]
Arrowhead High School	Warhawks	5	8	2	7	4	2	BKD	BKD	17	15	13	89	Nicholas Berkowitz '28 Taiya De Vries '25
Ransom Everglades School	Raiders	16	3	6	10	11	5	14	4	7	11	4	91	Sebastian Van De Kreeke '25 Sofia Rhone '26
Lake Forest High School	Scouts	4	13	3	3	14	12	7	10	11	9	10	96	Keegan Chatburn '25 [1-11] Vivienne Kelly '27 [1-2, 5-6] Mirabelle Duboeuf '27 [3-4] Jackson Schwartz '25 [7-8] Tullis Mengelkoch '28 [9-11]
Tabor Academy	Seawolves	13	16	8	11	5	9	1	6	6	13	16	104	Eliza Corral '25 [1-2] Sander Skaane '27 [3-4, 9-11] Jack Spillane '25 [5-8] Hanna Anderson '26 [1-2] Elinor Grant '27 [3-4, 9-11] Leo Lothian '28 [5-8]
Southern Regional High School	Rams	6	5	17	12	13	14	9	5	14	2	9	106	Jude Ryon '27 [1-11] Noah Tallman '25 [1-8] Belle Placa '25 [9-11]
Greens Farms Academy	Dragons	12	7	16	2	10	10	5	3	9	16	17	107	Emmet Ennico '25 [1-6] Avery Beck '27 [7-11] Ollie Ennico '28 [1-2] Avery Beck '27 [3-6] Emmet Ennico '25 [7-11]
The Stony Brook School	Bears	11	4	14	5	8	18	3	11	8	14	12	108	Carlos Gonzalez '28 [1-8] Emily Gaillard '25 [9-11] Jp Panebianco '27 [1-8]
Barrington High School	Eagles	15	6	11	13	9	4	18	14	13	8	7	118	Ben Reuter '28 Abby Guertler '25
Bainbridge High School	Spartans	DSQ	14	12	9	7	11	17	17	5	6	2	119	Stone Dewey '26 [1-6, 9-11] Daniel Chapman '27 [7-8] Holden Goodham '26 [1-8] Carson Domansky '26 [9-11]
Black River Public School	Varsity	2	11	15	14	15	15	16	7	18	17	6	136	Matthew Tevelde '26 [1-11] Olive Mcgough '27 [1-6] Henrik Bauman '27 [7-8] Jonas Pearson '25 [9-11]
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs	9	9	13	16	16	7	10	12	12	18	18	140	Jack Poynter '25 [1-4, 7-8] Eliana Mopper '26 [5-6, 9-11] Anna Iacobucci '25 [1-8] Amanda Wong '25 [9-11]
Porter-Gaud School	Cyclones	17	17	5	18	17	13	13	9	10	10	14	143	Thomas Weil '27 Lizzie Meden '26
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts	10	18	10	17	12	17	8	15	15	12	11	145	Patrick Kennedy '28 Alton Deoliveria '26
Jones College Prep	Eagles	14	15	18	15	18	16	11	16	16	7	15	161	Duke Diep '27 [1-11] Damian Amoruso '26 [1-6] Alton Lipford '25 [7-11]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.240+0.24

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2021 (6 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A	11A
Arrowhead High School Warhawks	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11
Bainbridge High School Spartans	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12
Barrington High School Eagles	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13
Black River Public School Varsity	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14
Christchurch School Seahorses	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	15
Christian Brothers Academy Colts	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	16
Greens Farms Academy Dragons	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15	17
Hampton Roads Academy Navigators	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16	18
Jones College Prep Eagles	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17	1
Lake Forest High School Scouts	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16	18	18	2
Norfolk Academy Bulldogs	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17	1	1	3
Porter-Gaud School Cyclones	12	12	14	14	16	16	18	18	2	2	4
Ransom Everglades School Raiders	13	13	15	15	17	17	1	1	3	3	5
Severn School Admirals	14	14	16	16	18	18	2	2	4	4	6
Southern Regional High School Rams	15	15	17	17	1	1	3	3	5	5	7
St. George's School Dragons	16	16	18	18	2	2	4	4	6	6	8
Tabor Academy Seawolves	17	17	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9
The Stony Brook School Bears	18	18	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B	11B
Arrowhead High School Warhawks	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	10
Bainbridge High School Spartans	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	11
Barrington High School Eagles	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	12
Black River Public School Varsity	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	13
Christchurch School Seahorses	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	14
Christian Brothers Academy Colts	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15	15
Greens Farms Academy Dragons	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16	16
Hampton Roads Academy Navigators	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17	17
Jones College Prep Eagles	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16	18	18	18
Lake Forest High School Scouts	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17	1	1	1
Norfolk Academy Bulldogs	12	12	14	14	16	16	18	18	2	2	2
Porter-Gaud School Cyclones	13	13	15	15	17	17	1	1	3	3	3
Ransom Everglades School Raiders	14	14	16	16	18	18	2	2	4	4	4
Severn School Admirals	15	15	17	17	1	1	3	3	5	5	5
Southern Regional High School Rams	16	16	18	18	2	2	4	4	6	6	6
St. George's School Dragons	17	17	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	7
Tabor Academy Seawolves	18	18	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	8
The Stony Brook School Bears	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	9

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Arrowhead High School	John Lieber '26	Mark Sellers '26
Warhawks	Nicholas Berkowitz '28	Taiya De Vries '25
Bainbridge High School	Nelson Dorsey '26 [1-11]	Beckett Ladenburg '27 [1-10] Holden Goodham '26 [11]
Spartans	Stone Dewey '26 [1-6, 9-11] Daniel Chapman '27 [7-8]	Holden Goodham '26 [1-8] Carson Domansky '26 [9-11]
Barrington High School	Duffy Macaulay '27	Quin Schneider '25
Eagles	Ben Reuter '28	Abby Guertler '25
Black River Public School	Lj Nykamp '25	Anneke Hackney '25
Varsity	Matthew Tevelde '26 [1-11]	Olive Mcgough '27 [1-6] Henrik Bauman '27 [7-8] Jonas Pearson '25 [9-11]
Christchurch School	Bo Angus '25	Brooke Mertz '26
Seahorses	Wylder Smith '27 [1-11]	Malia Deane '25 [1-6, 9-11] Simone Moss '25 [7-8]
Christian Brothers Academy	Cole Buczkowski '27	Matthew Dupree '25
Colts	Patrick Kennedy '28	Alton Deoliveria '26
Greens Farms Academy	Glen Foster '26 [1-11]	Caroline Collins '26 [1-10] Ollie Ennico '28 [11]
Dragons	Emmet Ennico '25 [1-6] Avery Beck '27 [7-11]	Ollie Ennico '28 [1-2] Avery Beck '27 [3-6] Emmet Ennico '25 [7-11]
Hampton Roads Academy	Parker Moore '25 [1-11]	Nicholas Bielewicz '26 [1-2, 8] Daphne Ambrosino '27 [3-7, 9-11]
Navigators	Leila Pfrang '25 [1-11]	Josie Brindley '26 [1-6, 9-11] Patrick Bielewicz '28 [7-8]
Jones College Prep	Gavin Eskilson '25 [1-11]	Jack Eskilson '28 [1-6, 8-11] Alton Lipford '25 [7]
Eagles	Duke Diep '27 [1-11]	Damian Amoruso '26 [1-6] Alton Lipford '25 [7-11]
Lake Forest High School	Owen Kohut '25	Maddie Rode '26
Scouts	Keegan Chatburn '25 [1-11]	Vivienne Kelly '27 [1-2, 5-6] Mirabelle Duboeuf '27 [3-4] Jackson Schwartz '25 [7-8] Tullis Mengelkoch '28 [9-11]
Norfolk Academy	James Allgeier '27	Sabrina Casagrande '25
Bulldogs	Jack Poynter '25 [1-4, 7-8] Eliana Mopper '26 [5-6, 9-11]	Anna Iacobucci '25 [1-8] Amanda Wong '25 [9-11]
Porter-Gaud School	Granger Osborne '26	Tucker Payne '27
Cyclones	Thomas Weil '27	Lizzie Meden '26
Ransom Everglades School	Ava Mc Aliley '26	Manolo Campos '25
Raiders	Sebastian Van De Kreeke '25	Sofia Rhone '26
Severn School	Annie Sitzmann '26	Annabelle Ulak '26
Admirals	Harrison Szot '27 [1-2] Alex Baker '26 [3-11]	Ana Fishback '27 [1-2] Hudson Grow '28 [3-4] Charlotte Macdonald '26 [5-11]
Southern Regional High School	Turner Ryon '25 [1-8] Gannon Botwinick '27 [9-11]	Belle Placa '25 [1-10] Turner Ryon '25 [11]
Rams	Jude Ryon '27 [1-11]	Noah Tallman '25 [1-8] Belle Placa '25 [9-11]
St. George's School	Gil Hackel '26	Phoebe Fogarty '25
Dragons	Pearse Dowd '25 [1-11]	Avery Peterson '26 [1-6, 9-11] Grace Patterson '25 [7-8]
Tabor Academy	Peter Herlihy '25	Theo Binder '25
Seawolves	Eliza Corral '25 [1-2] Sander Skaane '27 [3-4, 9-11] Jack Spillane '25 [5-8]	Hanna Anderson '26 [1-2] Elinor Grant '27 [3-4, 9-11] Leo Lothian '28 [5-8]
The Stony Brook School	Arancha Rivero-Ansed '27 [1-11]	Joshua Henson '25 [1-6, 8-10] Nora Beaver '27 [7, 11]
Bears	Carlos Gonzalez '28 [1-8] Emily Gaillard '25 [9-11]	Jp Panebianco '27 [1-8]

Conditions — 11/02/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 54% · Pressure 1027.2 hPa

Temperature

57°F

↑ 63°F ↓ 47°F

Feels like 53°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

4.7 kn

avg · max 5.6 kn

Gusts to 13.8 kn

From NNW (332°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover50% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity54% Pressure1027.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 8 kn · NE 7 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Archbishop Spalding/Broadneck: an underdogs’ day (−0.09)

Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.

Fleet adjustment −0.10 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.20

Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.27 ± 0.09)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Archbishop Spalding/Broadneck by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 8 labelled days at Archbishop Spalding/Broadneck, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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