Tabor Academy '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.00 (fleet 3.19) | 38 of 231 | +0.03 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 44–24 (65%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 | 2 | 20–14 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 2 | 24–10 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (68 matches) the record is 44–24 against 39.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+4.4). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-16 | ISSA Baker Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.53 | 2.08 | 7–10 | 8.2 | −0.45 | 0.3 | 82% |
| 2025-05-03 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy) | skipper | 2.46 | 3.71 | 13–4 | 10.2 | +1.25 | 1.9 | 10% |
| 2024-05-18 | 2024 NATIONAL INVITATIONAL TOURNAMENT (NIT) | skipper | 2.27 | 4.19 | 13–1 | 10.9 | +1.91 | 2.0 | 12% |
| 2024-05-04 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy) | skipper | 2.08 | 2.35 | 11–9 | 10.3 | +0.27 | 0.1 | 46% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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