NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy)

HostHarvard/MIT
Date05/03/2025
TypeDistrict Championship
BoatCFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	St. George's School	Dragons	14–3
2	Tabor Academy	Seawolves	13–4
3	The Hotchkiss School	Bearcats	10–7
4	Brunswick School	Bruins	9–8
5	Greenwich High School	Cardinals	5–9
6	Greenwich Academy	Gator	5–9
7	Greens Farms Academy	Dragons	3–11
8	Dartmouth High School	Sailing	3–11

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 12,471 team race matches sailed before 2025-05-03, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 46 of 62 matches (74%) with a log-loss of 0.567 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.73 ± 0.28: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 12% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	St. George's School Dragons	2	8.93 school +0.49	Pearse Dowd / Phoebe Fogarty 2.96 Lucca Antonietti / Avery Peterson Gil Hackel / Kate Myles 3.05 7–2 Gil Hackel / Grace Patterson 2.99 7–1	77%	14–3 (82%)	+0.8
2	Tabor Academy Seawolves	3	7.81 school +0.35	Jack Spillane / Leo Lothian 2.46 Sander Skaane / Elinor Grant Peter Herlihy / Theo Binder 3.08 10–3 Peter Herlihy / Lilly Menyhart 2.78 3–1	60%	13–4 (76%)	+2.8
3	The Hotchkiss School Bearcats	1	8.91 school +0.35	Samara Walshe / Dasha Gracheva 2.95 8–7 Pierce Olsen / Carla Oudin 2.74 8–7 Fynn Olsen / Miranda Beitel 2.86 9–6 Thomas O'Grady / Dhruv Kothari 2.45 3–1 Thomas O'Grady / Dasha Gracheva 2.39 2–0	79%	10–7 (59%)	−3.4
4	Brunswick School Bruins	4	7.21 school +0.54	Sebastian Sheppard / Andrew Ohls 2.99 Wills Gandy / Sean Mensi 1.29 Harrison Gandy / Henry Ginnel 2.34	49%	9–8 (53%)	+0.6
5	Greenwich High School Cardinals	6	6.44 school +0.27	Richard Sykes / Michael Donovan 2.89 Sebastian Sheppard / Mollie Wood 1.81 Marcos Rotella / Owen Benison 1.40 3–5 Luca Larosa / Owen Benison 1.52 1–3 Marcos Rotella / Liam Dozier 1.33 1–1	41%	5–9 (36%)	−0.8
6	Greenwich Academy Gator	5	6.49 school +0.46	Callie Hammond / Kathryn Mcgranahan 2.17 Helena Borcherding / Saanvi Gupta 2.13 3–7 Lillie Foster / Isla Van Biesen 1.60 3–7 Helena Borcherding / Taylor Nanni 2.04 2–2 Sophia Alexopoulos / Ana Gazoni 1.65 2–2	43%	5–9 (36%)	−1.0
7	Greens Farms Academy Dragons	7	5.52 school +0.15	Emmet Ennico / Hayes Cooper 1.62 Avery Beck / Caroline Collins 1.82 3–9 Glen Foster / Alex Weiner 1.77 2–6 Glen Foster / Alec Crum 1.97 1–5 Avery Beck / Alex Weiner 1.71 0–2	30%	3–11 (21%)	−1.2
8	Dartmouth High School Sailing	8	3.38 school −0.68	Sam Sperry / Mohamed Hijazi 2.00 Phoebe Murray / Abigail Glaser 2–10 Finn Sperry / Jordan Rosenberg 1.41 2–8 Finn Sperry / Evan Sargent 1.41 1–3 Anthony Dasilva / Jordan Rosenberg 1–1	6%	3–11 (21%)	+2.2

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
8	Dartmouth High School	3.38	5.39	3–11	0.8	+2.01	2.9	4%
2	Tabor Academy	7.81	9.06	13–4	10.2	+1.25	1.9	10%
1	St. George's School	8.93	9.40	14–3	13.2	+0.47	0.2	43%
4	Brunswick School	7.21	7.48	9–8	8.4	+0.27	0.1	47%
5	Greenwich High School	6.44	5.99	5–9	5.8	−0.45	0.2	80%
6	Greenwich Academy	6.49	5.94	5–9	6.0	−0.55	0.3	84%
7	Greens Farms Academy	5.52	4.66	3–11	4.2	−0.86	0.5	89%
3	The Hotchkiss School	8.91	7.46	10–7	13.4	−1.45	2.9	99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Sam Sperry	Dartmouth High School	2.00	4.01	3–11	0.8	+2.01	2.9	4%
Finn Sperry	Dartmouth High School	1.41	3.42	3–11	0.8	+2.01	2.9	4%
Phoebe Murray	Dartmouth High School	0.58	2.41	2–10	0.6	+1.83	1.7	11%
Jack Spillane	Tabor Academy	2.46	3.71	13–4	10.2	+1.25	1.9	10%
Sander Skaane	Tabor Academy	1.83	3.07	13–4	10.2	+1.25	1.9	10%
Gil Hackel	St. George's School	3.05	3.52	14–3	13.2	+0.47	0.2	43%
Sebastian Sheppard	Brunswick School	2.99	3.26	9–8	8.4	+0.27	0.1	47%
Wills Gandy	Brunswick School	1.29	1.55	9–8	8.4	+0.27	0.1	47%
Harrison Gandy	Brunswick School	2.34	2.61	9–8	8.4	+0.27	0.1	47%
Sophia Alexopoulos	Greenwich Academy	1.65	1.59	2–2	2.0	−0.06	0.0	72%
Sebastian Sheppard	Greenwich High School	1.81	1.36	5–9	5.8	−0.45	0.2	80%
Avery Beck	Greens Farms Academy	1.82	0.96	3–11	4.2	−0.86	0.5	89%
Luca Larosa	Greenwich High School	1.52	-1.61	1–3	2.1	−3.14	2.1	99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	The Hotchkiss School	Greenwich High School	87%
1	2	Brunswick School	Greenwich Academy	66%
1	3	St. George's School	Dartmouth High School	99%
1	4	Tabor Academy	Greens Farms Academy	81%
1	5	The Hotchkiss School	Brunswick School	80%
1	6	Greenwich High School	St. George's School	11%	upset
1	7	Greenwich Academy	Greens Farms Academy	66%
1	8	Tabor Academy	Dartmouth High School	96%
1	9	Brunswick School	St. George's School	20%	upset
1	10	The Hotchkiss School	Greens Farms Academy	92%
1	11	Dartmouth High School	Greenwich High School	8%	upset
1	12	Tabor Academy	Greenwich Academy	75%
1	13	St. George's School	Greens Farms Academy	94%
1	14	Brunswick School	Dartmouth High School	95%
1	15	Greenwich Academy	The Hotchkiss School	16%	upset
1	16	Tabor Academy	Greenwich High School	75%
1	17	Dartmouth High School	Greens Farms Academy	11%	upset
1	18	St. George's School	Greenwich Academy	87%
1	19	Greenwich High School	Brunswick School	35%	upset
1	20	Tabor Academy	The Hotchkiss School	28%	upset
1	21	Greenwich Academy	Dartmouth High School	91%
1	22	Greenwich High School	Greens Farms Academy	67%
1	23	St. George's School	The Hotchkiss School	47%	upset
1	24	Tabor Academy	Brunswick School	62%
1	25	Greenwich High School	Greenwich Academy	48%	upset
1	26	The Hotchkiss School	Dartmouth High School	98%
1	27	Brunswick School	Greens Farms Academy	79%
1	28	St. George's School	Tabor Academy	69%
2	29	The Hotchkiss School	Greenwich High School	88%
2	30	Brunswick School	Greenwich Academy	63%
2	31	St. George's School	Dartmouth High School	99%
2	32	Greens Farms Academy	Tabor Academy	17%	upset
2	33	Brunswick School	The Hotchkiss School	19%	upset
2	34	St. George's School	Greenwich High School	88%
2	35	Greenwich Academy	Greens Farms Academy	68%
2	36	Tabor Academy	Dartmouth High School	96%
2	37	St. George's School	Brunswick School	80%
2	38	The Hotchkiss School	Greens Farms Academy	91%
2	39	Greenwich High School	Dartmouth High School	91%
2	40	Tabor Academy	Greenwich Academy	74%
2	41	St. George's School	Greens Farms Academy	94%
2	42	Brunswick School	Dartmouth High School	95%
2	43	The Hotchkiss School	Greenwich Academy	84%
2	44	Tabor Academy	Greenwich High School	76%
2	45	Greens Farms Academy	Dartmouth High School	88%
2	46	St. George's School	Greenwich Academy	86%
2	47	Brunswick School	Greenwich High School	65%
2	48	Tabor Academy	The Hotchkiss School	28%	upset
2	49	Dartmouth High School	Greenwich Academy	9%	upset
2	50	Greens Farms Academy	Greenwich High School	33%	upset
2	51	St. George's School	The Hotchkiss School	46%	upset
2	52	Tabor Academy	Brunswick School	63%
2	53	Greenwich Academy	Greenwich High School	53%
2	54	The Hotchkiss School	Dartmouth High School	98%
2	55	Brunswick School	Greens Farms Academy	79%
2	56	St. George's School	Tabor Academy	68%
3	57	St. George's School	Tabor Academy	68%
3	58	The Hotchkiss School	Brunswick School	82%
3	59	The Hotchkiss School	St. George's School	55%
3	60	Tabor Academy	Brunswick School	63%
3	61	Tabor Academy	The Hotchkiss School	28%	upset
3	62	St. George's School	Brunswick School	79%

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Bearcats	1-2-4	def.	Cardinals	3-5-6
2	Bruins	1-2-6	def.	Gator	3-4-5
3	Dragons	1-2-5	def.	Sailing	3-4-6
4	Seawolves	1-2-3	def.	Dragons	4-5-6
5	Bearcats	1-2-4	def.	Bruins	3-5-6
6	Cardinals	1-2-5	def.	Dragons	3-4-6
7	Gator	1-3-5	def.	Dragons	2-4-6
8	Seawolves	1-2-4	def.	Sailing	3-5-6
9	Bruins	1-2-6	def.	Dragons	3-4-5
10	Bearcats	2-3-4	def.	Dragons	1-5-6
11	Sailing	1-3-6	def.	Cardinals	2-4-5
12	Seawolves	1-2-6	def.	Gator	3-4-5
13	Dragons	1-2-4	def.	Dragons	3-5-6
14	Bruins	1-2-4	def.	Sailing	3-5-6
15	Gator	1-3-6	def.	Bearcats	2-4-5
16	Seawolves	1-3-4	def.	Cardinals	2-5-6
17	Sailing	2-3-5	def.	Dragons	1-4-6
18	Dragons	1-2-3	def.	Gator	4-5-6
19	Cardinals	1-2-5	def.	Bruins	3-4-6
20	Seawolves	1-3-5	def.	Bearcats	2-4-6
21	Gator	1-2-3	def.	Sailing	4-5-6
22	Cardinals	1-2-3	def.	Dragons	4-5-6
23	Dragons	1-2-3	def.	Bearcats	4-5-6
24	Seawolves	2-3-5	def.	Bruins	1-4-6
25	Cardinals	1-2-3	def.	Gator	4-5-6 DNF
26	Bearcats	1-2-3	def.	Sailing	4-5-6
27	Bruins	1-3-4	def.	Dragons	2-5-6
28	Dragons	2-3-4	def.	Seawolves	1-5-6
29	Bearcats	1-2-4	def.	Cardinals	3-5-6
30	Bruins	1-2-5	def.	Gator	3-4-6
31	Dragons	1-2-3	def.	Sailing	4-5-6
32	Dragons	2-3-4	def.	Seawolves	1-5-6
33	Bruins	1-2-3	def.	Bearcats	4-5-6
34	Dragons	1-2-6	def.	Cardinals	3-4-5
35	Gator	1-3-4	def.	Dragons	2-5-6
36	Seawolves	1-2-5	def.	Sailing	3-4-6
37	Dragons	1-2-6	def.	Bruins	3-4-5
38	Bearcats	1-2-4	def.	Dragons	3-5-6
39	Cardinals	1-2-3	def.	Sailing	4-5-6
40	Seawolves	1-2-3	def.	Gator	4-5-6
41	Dragons	1-2-4	def.	Dragons	3-5-6
42	Bruins	1-2-3	def.	Sailing	4-5-6
43	Bearcats	1-2-5	def.	Gator	3-4-6
44	Seawolves	1-2-6	def.	Cardinals	3-4-5
45	Dragons	1-3-4	def.	Sailing	2-5-6
46	Dragons	1-2-4	def.	Gator	3-5-6
47	Bruins	1-2-3	def.	Cardinals	4-5-6
48	Seawolves	1-2-6	def.	Bearcats	3-4-5
49	Sailing	1-3-6	def.	Gator	2-4-5
50	Dragons	2-3-4	def.	Cardinals	1-5-6
51	Dragons	1-2-4	def.	Bearcats	3-5-6
52	Seawolves	1-2-4	def.	Bruins	3-5-6
53	Gator	1-2-4	def.	Cardinals	3-5-6
54	Bearcats	1-2-3	def.	Sailing	4-5-6
55	Bruins	1-2-4	def.	Dragons	3-5-6
56	Dragons	1-2-3	def.	Seawolves	4-5-6
57	Dragons	1-2-5	def.	Seawolves	3-4-6
58	Bearcats	1-2-5	def.	Bruins	3-4-6
59	Bearcats	1-2-4	def.	Dragons	3-5-6
60	Seawolves	1-2-3	def.	Bruins	4-5-6
61	Seawolves	1-2-5	def.	Bearcats	3-4-6
62	Dragons	1-2-5	def.	Bruins	3-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
St. George's School	Dragons	Gil Hackel '26 Lucca Antonietti '25 Pearse Dowd '25	Grace Patterson '25 Kate Myles '25 Avery Peterson '26 Phoebe Fogarty '25
Tabor Academy	Seawolves	Jack Spillane '25 Peter Herlihy '25 Sander Skaane '27	Leo Lothian '28 Theo Binder '25 Lilly Menyhart '28 Elinor Grant '27
The Hotchkiss School	Bearcats	Fynn Olsen '25 Pierce Olsen '25 Samara Walshe '25 Thomas O'Grady '26	Miranda Beitel '25 Carla Oudin '26 Dasha Gracheva '26 Dhruv Kothari '25
Brunswick School	Bruins	Harrison Gandy '28 Sebastian Sheppard '27 Wills Gandy '30	Henry Ginnel '26 Andrew Ohls '26 Sean Mensi '26
Greenwich High School	Cardinals	Luca Larosa '26 Marcos Rotella '26 Richard Sykes '26 Sebastian Sheppard '27	Owen Benison '25 Liam Dozier '27 Michael Donovan '26 Mollie Wood '25
Greenwich Academy	Gator	Callie Hammond '25 Helena Borcherding '26 Lillie Foster '25 Sophia Alexopoulos '28	Kathryn Mcgranahan '25 Saanvi Gupta '25 Taylor Nanni '27 Isla Van Biesen '27 Ana Gazoni '27
Greens Farms Academy	Dragons	Avery Beck '27 Emmet Ennico '25 Glen Foster '26	Caroline Collins '26 Alex Weiner '26 Hayes Cooper '27 Alec Crum '27
Dartmouth High School	Sailing	Anthony Dasilva '25 Finn Sperry '26 Phoebe Murray '26 Sam Sperry '26	Jordan Rosenberg '25 Evan Sargent '26 Abigail Glaser '26 Mohamed Hijazi '25

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →