St. George's School '26
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.61 (fleet 4.11) | 6 of 231 | +0.07 ± 0.15 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 95–25 (79%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 2 | 32–7 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 2 | 23–11 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 2 | 31–6 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 9–1 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 7 graded regattas (120 matches) the record is 95–25 against 87.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+7.7). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 11 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | ISSA Team Race Championship for the Baker Trophy | skipper | 3.00 | 2.78 | 12–7 | 12.6 | −0.22 | 0.1 | 73% |
| 2026-05-02 | 2026 NESSA Team Racing Champs (Presidents Trophy) | skipper | 2.93 | 5.93 | 20–0 | 15.0 | ≥+3.00 | 7.8 | <1% |
| 2025-05-16 | ISSA Baker Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.96 | 2.47 | 9–8 | 10.3 | −0.48 | 0.4 | 84% |
| 2025-05-03 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy) | skipper | 3.05 | 3.52 | 14–3 | 13.2 | +0.47 | 0.2 | 43% |
| 2024-05-17 | 2024 ISSA Baker Team Race National Championship | skipper | 2.95 | 3.19 | 12–5 | 11.4 | +0.23 | 0.1 | 49% |
| 2024-05-04 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy) | skipper | 3.02 | 4.85 | 19–1 | 16.7 | +1.83 | 2.0 | 12% |
| 2023-05-20 | National Invitational Tournament (Founders Trophy) | skipper | 2.48 | 3.50 | 9–1 | 8.1 | +1.02 | 0.5 | 40% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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