| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
St. George's School | Dragons | 20–0 |
| 2 |  |
Tabor Academy | Seawolves | 13–7 |
| 3 |  |
Brunswick School | Bruins | 10–10 |
| 4 |  |
Barrington High School | Eagles | 9–11 |
| 5 |  |
The Hotchkiss School | Bearcats | 7–7 |
| 6 |  |
Greenwich High School | Cardinals | 4–10 |
| 7 |  |
Sharon High School | Eagles | 4–10 |
| 8 |  |
Milton Academy | Mustangs | 1–13 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 13,699 team race matches sailed before 2026-05-02, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 53 of 68 matches (78%) with a log-loss of 0.512 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.36 ± 0.28: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 21% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. George's School | 7.67 | 10.67 | 20–0 | 15.8 | ≥+3.00 | 6.3 | 1% |
| 5 | The Hotchkiss School | 4.74 | 5.73 | 7–7 | 5.1 | +0.99 | 1.1 | 17% |
| 7 | Sharon High School | 3.52 | 4.34 | 4–10 | 2.8 | +0.81 | 0.6 | 28% |
| 2 | Tabor Academy | 6.27 | 7.02 | 13–7 | 10.8 | +0.75 | 0.9 | 19% |
| 4 | Barrington High School | 5.69 | 5.80 | 9–11 | 8.7 | +0.10 | 0.0 | 54% |
| 8 | Milton Academy | 2.79 | 2.02 | 1–13 | 1.6 | −0.77 | 0.3 | 84% |
| 3 | Brunswick School | 7.17 | 5.78 | 10–10 | 14.1 | −1.39 | 3.2 | 99% |
| 6 | Greenwich High School | 6.49 | 3.83 | 4–10 | 9.0 | −2.67 | 7.4 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gil Hackel | St. George's School | 2.98 | 5.98 | 20–0 | 15.8 | ≥+3.00 | 6.3 | 1% |
| Kai Watters | St. George's School | 1.91 | 4.91 | 20–0 | 15.8 | ≥+3.00 | 6.3 | 1% |
| Patrick Tomlinson | Tabor Academy | 1.67 | 2.70 | 8–4 | 6.1 | +1.03 | 1.1 | 18% |
| Finnegan Grainger | The Hotchkiss School | 0.98 | 1.97 | 7–7 | 5.1 | +0.99 | 1.1 | 17% |
| Thomas Ha | Sharon High School | 0.91 | 1.72 | 4–10 | 2.8 | +0.81 | 0.6 | 28% |
| Nathan Pitha | Sharon High School | 0.52 | 1.33 | 4–10 | 2.8 | +0.81 | 0.6 | 28% |
| Sander Skaane | Tabor Academy | 2.01 | 2.76 | 13–7 | 10.8 | +0.75 | 0.9 | 19% |
| Abby Wei | Tabor Academy | 1.97 | 2.72 | 13–7 | 10.8 | +0.75 | 0.9 | 19% |
| Ben Glennon | Tabor Academy | 1.71 | 1.98 | 5–3 | 4.7 | +0.28 | 0.0 | 57% |
| Ben Reuter | Barrington High School | 1.85 | 1.95 | 9–11 | 8.7 | +0.10 | 0.0 | 54% |
| Duffy Macaulay | Barrington High School | 2.50 | 2.61 | 9–11 | 8.7 | +0.10 | 0.0 | 54% |
| Cal Naperotic | Barrington High School | 1.38 | 1.48 | 9–11 | 8.7 | +0.10 | 0.0 | 54% |
| Emmett Burghardt | Milton Academy | 0.26 | -0.51 | 1–13 | 1.6 | −0.77 | 0.3 | 84% |
| Ren Hirose | Milton Academy | 0.29 | -0.47 | 1–13 | 1.6 | −0.77 | 0.3 | 84% |
| Dylan Cafferty | Milton Academy | 1.58 | 0.81 | 1–13 | 1.6 | −0.77 | 0.3 | 84% |
| Harrison Gandy | Brunswick School | 2.21 | 0.82 | 10–10 | 14.1 | −1.39 | 3.2 | 99% |
| Sebastian Sheppard | Brunswick School | 2.19 | 0.81 | 10–10 | 14.1 | −1.39 | 3.2 | 99% |
| Luca Larosa | Greenwich High School | 1.56 | -1.10 | 4–10 | 9.0 | −2.67 | 7.4 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Eagles | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bearcats | 1-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Seawolves | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mustangs | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Bruins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cardinals | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Dragons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Eagles | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Seawolves | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Bearcats | 2-3-6 |
| 6 | |
Bruins | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Eagles | 1-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Eagles | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Mustangs | 1-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Dragons | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cardinals | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Bruins | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Seawolves | 1-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Eagles | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Bearcats | 1-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Eagles | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cardinals | 3-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Dragons | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mustangs | 3-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Eagles | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Seawolves | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Cardinals | 1-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Bearcats | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mustangs | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Dragons | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-4-5 |
| 17 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Bruins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mustangs | 3-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Seawolves | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Dragons | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bearcats | 3-4-5 |
| 21 | |
Cardinals | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Mustangs | 1-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Eagles | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Bearcats | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-5 |
| 24 | |
Dragons | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Seawolves | 2-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Eagles | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mustangs | 3-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Bearcats | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cardinals | 3-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Seawolves | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Dragons | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-5 |
| 29 | |
Eagles | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bearcats | 3-4-6 |
| 30 | |
Seawolves | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mustangs | 4-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Cardinals | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bruins | 1-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Dragons | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Bearcats | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Seawolves | 1-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Bruins | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Eagles | 2-4-6 |
| 35 | |
Eagles | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Mustangs | 2-4-5 |
| 36 | |
Dragons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cardinals | 4-5-6 |
| 37 | |
Bruins | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Seawolves | 1-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Bearcats | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-5-6 |
| 39 | |
Eagles | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cardinals | 3-5-6 |
| 40 | |
Dragons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mustangs | 4-5-6 |
| 41 | |
Bruins | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Eagles | 2-5-6 |
| 42 | |
Seawolves | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Cardinals | 1-5-6 |
| 43 | |
Bearcats | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mustangs | 4-5-6 |
| 44 | |
Dragons | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-4-6 |
| 45 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Eagles | 4-5-6 |
| 46 | |
Bruins | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mustangs | 3-5-6 |
| 47 | |
Seawolves | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Eagles | 1-4-6 |
| 48 | |
Dragons | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bearcats | 3-5-6 |
| 49 | |
Mustangs | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Cardinals | 1-5-6 |
| 50 | |
Eagles | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-4-6 |
| 51 | |
Bruins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bearcats | 4-5-6 |
| 52 | |
Dragons | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Seawolves | 2-3-6 |
| 53 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mustangs | 4-5-6 |
| 54 | |
Bearcats | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cardinals | 3-4-6 |
| 55 | |
Seawolves | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-4-6 |
| 56 | |
Dragons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bruins | 4-5-6 |
| 57 | |
Seawolves | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-6 |
| 58 | |
Dragons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Eagles | 4-5-6 |
| 59 | |
Bruins | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Eagles | 2-4-6 |
| 60 | |
Dragons | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seawolves | 3-4-5 |
| 61 | |
Seawolves | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Eagles | 1-5-6 |
| 62 | |
Dragons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bruins | 4-5-6 |
| 63 | |
Seawolves | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-6 |
| 64 | |
Dragons | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Eagles | 2-4-6 |
| 65 | |
Eagles | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-6 |
| 66 | |
Dragons | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Seawolves | 2-3-6 |
| 67 | |
Seawolves | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Eagles | 1-5-6 |
| 68 | |
Dragons | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bruins | 3-4-6 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
