The Hotchkiss School '26
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.62 (fleet 2.56) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.04 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 14–8 (64%) as crew 7–3 (70%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 1 | 7–7 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 1 | 5–1 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 1 | 2–0 | 7–3 |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (30 matches) the record is 19–11 against 16.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.0). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 2026 NESSA Team Racing Champs (Presidents Trophy) | skipper | 1.76 | 2.84 | 7–7 | 4.9 | +1.08 | 1.3 | 15% |
| 2025-05-03 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy) | skipper | 2.45 | 1.44 | 5–1 | 5.5 | −1.01 | 0.3 | 91% |
| 2024-05-04 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy) | crew | 2.73 | 3.59 | 7–3 | 5.6 | +0.86 | 0.7 | 28% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| 2026 NESSA Team Racing Champs (Presidents Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 14 | 50% | — |
| 2026 NESSA O'Day Qualifier - Groton, CT | Skipper | A | 7 | 2.7 | 2.06 |
| 2026 NESSA Fleet Racing Championship(O'Day Trophy) | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.2 | 2.49 |
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 17 | 59% | — |
| NESSA O'Day Qualifier - Groton, CT | Crew | B | 3 | 1.7 | +0.12 |
| NESSA Fleet Racing Championship (O'Day Trophy) | Skipper | B | 12 | 5.2 | 2.94 |
| ISSA Fleet Nationals (Mallory Trophy) | Skipper | B | 11 | 10.7 | 2.56 |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy) | Crew | TR | 20 | 80% | — |
| NESSA O'Day Qualifier - Groton, CT | Skipper | B | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| 2024 ISSA Mallory National Championship | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.6 | 2.31 |
| 2024 CT State Championships | Skipper | B | 8 | 4.1 | 1.59 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| ISSA Mallory National Championship | Crew | B | 6 | 10.3 | -0.20 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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