NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy)

HostSt George's School
Date05/04/2024
TypeDistrict Championship
BoatCFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	St. George's School	Dragons	0–0
2	The Hotchkiss School	Bearcats	16–4
3	Tabor Academy	Seawolves	11–9
4	Brunswick School	Bruins	10–10
5	Barrington High School	Eagles	6–8
6	East Greenwich High School	Avengers	4–10
7	Lincoln Academy	Eagles	1–13
7	Fairfield Ludlowe High School	Falcons	1–13

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 11,148 team race matches sailed before 2024-05-04, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 61 of 68 matches (90%) with a log-loss of 0.292 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.58 ± 0.27: an orderly event, more orderly than 84% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	St. George's School Dragons	1	9.13 school +0.41, home +0.15	Pearse Dowd / Kate Myles 2.20 Christian Ebbin / Avery Peterson 3.12 12–0 Gil Hackel / Phoebe Fogarty 3.02 12–0 Christian Ebbin / Phoebe Fogarty 3.29 7–1 Gil Hackel / Max Miller 2.94 7–1	83%	19–1 (95%)	+2.3
2	The Hotchkiss School Bearcats	2	8.14 school +0.24	Fynn Olsen / Dhruv Kothari 2.32 Pierce Olsen / Phoebe Hackett 2.85 12–4 Samara Walshe / Thomas O'Grady 2.73 7–3 Samara Walshe / Dasha Gracheva 2.67 7–1 Caleb Kinnear / Miranda Beitel 1.86 4–0 Thomas O'Grady / Miranda Beitel 2–0	71%	16–4 (80%)	+1.8
3	Tabor Academy Seawolves	4	7.12 school +0.23	Peter Herlihy / Theo Binder 2.77 Patrick Shachoy / Leo Lothian 1.75 7–5 Jack Spillane / Lucy Lack 7–5 Patrick Shachoy / Lucy Lack 1.94 4–4 Jack Spillane / Jack Schneider 4–4	52%	11–9 (55%)	+0.7
4	Brunswick School Bruins	3	7.57 school +0.67	Thomas Whidden / Henry Ginnel 2.60 Wills Gandy / Sean Mensi 1.16 Sebastian Sheppard / Alex Ohls 3.11 4–8 Sebastian Sheppard / Andrew Ohls 2.97 6–2	60%	10–10 (50%)	−1.9
5	Barrington High School Eagles	5	5.58 school −0.12	Duffy Macaulay / Quin Schneider Christopher Chwalk / Avery Guck 2.36 6–4 Jack Gaynor / Lauren Leonard 6–4 Christopher Chwalk / Ellery Kloc 2.14 0–4 Jack Gaynor / Abby Guertler 0–4	42%	6–8 (43%)	+0.1
6	East Greenwich High School Avengers	7	4.44 school +0.46	Owen Warren / Madeleine Jarbeau 1.49 Pierson Falk / Isaac Kaldor Colin Auvil / Harper Kelley	25%	4–10 (29%)	+0.5
7	Lincoln Academy Eagles	8	3.45 school −0.33	Toby Clarkson / Piper Carleton 2.09 Otto Schoenthal / Sam Scott 1.30 Griffin Chace / Noah Arbuckle 0.22	12%	1–13 (7%)	−0.7
7	Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons	6	4.63 school +0.33	Bradley Kirkpatrick / Kate Lavallee Amelia Woodworth / Isabella Brenner 1.46 1–11 Anabelle Woodworth / Lucy Murphy 1.45 0–8 Anabelle Woodworth / Cameron Cooleen 1.45 1–5 Amelia Woodworth / Luke Demartino 1.64 0–2	27%	1–13 (7%)	−2.8

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	St. George's School	9.13	10.96	19–1	16.7	+1.83	2.0	12%
2	The Hotchkiss School	8.14	8.92	16–4	14.2	+0.77	0.8	24%
6	East Greenwich High School	4.44	4.79	4–10	3.5	+0.35	0.1	48%
3	Tabor Academy	7.12	7.39	11–9	10.3	+0.27	0.1	46%
5	Barrington High School	5.58	5.64	6–8	5.9	+0.05	0.0	61%
4	Brunswick School	7.57	6.82	10–10	11.9	−0.75	0.8	91%
7	Lincoln Academy	3.45	2.58	1–13	1.7	−0.87	0.3	86%
7	Fairfield Ludlowe High School	4.63	2.07	1–13	3.8	−2.56	3.5	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Gil Hackel	St. George's School	3.02	4.85	19–1	16.7	+1.83	2.0	12%
Jack Spillane	Tabor Academy	2.08	2.35	11–9	10.3	+0.27	0.1	46%
Duffy Macaulay	Barrington High School	2.51	2.57	6–8	5.9	+0.05	0.0	61%
Sebastian Sheppard	Brunswick School	3.11	2.36	10–10	11.9	−0.75	0.8	91%
Wills Gandy	Brunswick School	1.16	0.41	10–10	11.9	−0.75	0.8	91%
Otto Schoenthal	Lincoln Academy	1.30	0.43	1–13	1.7	−0.87	0.3	86%
Anabelle Woodworth	Fairfield Ludlowe High School	1.45	-1.11	1–13	3.8	−2.56	3.5	>99%
Amelia Woodworth	Fairfield Ludlowe High School	1.46	-1.10	1–13	3.8	−2.56	3.5	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Brunswick School	Lincoln Academy	97%
1	2	Tabor Academy	Barrington High School	73%
1	3	The Hotchkiss School	Fairfield Ludlowe High School	94%
1	4	St. George's School	East Greenwich High School	98%
1	5	Tabor Academy	Brunswick School	40%	upset
1	6	The Hotchkiss School	Lincoln Academy	98%
1	7	Barrington High School	East Greenwich High School	74%
1	8	St. George's School	Fairfield Ludlowe High School	97%
1	9	The Hotchkiss School	Tabor Academy	73%
1	10	Brunswick School	East Greenwich High School	92%
1	11	Fairfield Ludlowe High School	Lincoln Academy	71%
1	12	St. George's School	Barrington High School	95%
1	13	The Hotchkiss School	East Greenwich High School	91%
1	14	Tabor Academy	Fairfield Ludlowe High School	88%
1	15	Brunswick School	Barrington High School	84%
1	16	St. George's School	Lincoln Academy	99%
1	17	East Greenwich High School	Fairfield Ludlowe High School	47%	upset
1	18	The Hotchkiss School	Barrington High School	78%
1	19	Tabor Academy	Lincoln Academy	95%
1	20	St. George's School	Brunswick School	76%
1	21	Barrington High School	Fairfield Ludlowe High School	69%
1	22	East Greenwich High School	Lincoln Academy	68%
1	23	The Hotchkiss School	Brunswick School	64%
1	24	St. George's School	Tabor Academy	82%
1	25	Barrington High School	Lincoln Academy	85%
1	26	Brunswick School	Fairfield Ludlowe High School	91%
1	27	Tabor Academy	East Greenwich High School	89%
1	28	The Hotchkiss School	St. George's School	35%	upset
2	29	Brunswick School	Lincoln Academy	96%
2	30	Tabor Academy	Barrington High School	74%
2	31	The Hotchkiss School	Fairfield Ludlowe High School	93%
2	32	St. George's School	East Greenwich High School	97%
2	33	Brunswick School	Tabor Academy	58%
2	34	The Hotchkiss School	Lincoln Academy	98%
2	35	Barrington High School	East Greenwich High School	72%
2	36	St. George's School	Fairfield Ludlowe High School	97%
2	37	Tabor Academy	The Hotchkiss School	26%	upset
2	38	Brunswick School	East Greenwich High School	91%
2	39	Lincoln Academy	Fairfield Ludlowe High School	27%	upset
2	40	St. George's School	Barrington High School	95%
2	41	The Hotchkiss School	East Greenwich High School	91%
2	42	Tabor Academy	Fairfield Ludlowe High School	86%
2	43	Brunswick School	Barrington High School	83%
2	44	St. George's School	Lincoln Academy	99%
2	45	East Greenwich High School	Fairfield Ludlowe High School	46%	upset
2	46	The Hotchkiss School	Barrington High School	79%
2	47	Tabor Academy	Lincoln Academy	95%
2	48	St. George's School	Brunswick School	77%
2	49	Barrington High School	Fairfield Ludlowe High School	68%
2	50	East Greenwich High School	Lincoln Academy	69%
2	51	The Hotchkiss School	Brunswick School	65%
2	52	St. George's School	Tabor Academy	82%
2	53	Barrington High School	Lincoln Academy	85%
2	54	Brunswick School	Fairfield Ludlowe High School	90%
2	55	Tabor Academy	East Greenwich High School	89%
2	56	St. George's School	The Hotchkiss School	64%
3	57	The Hotchkiss School	Tabor Academy	74%
3	58	St. George's School	Brunswick School	77%
3	59	The Hotchkiss School	Brunswick School	66%
3	60	St. George's School	Tabor Academy	82%
3	61	Tabor Academy	Brunswick School	42%	upset
3	62	St. George's School	The Hotchkiss School	64%
4	63	The Hotchkiss School	Tabor Academy	74%
4	64	St. George's School	Brunswick School	77%
4	65	The Hotchkiss School	Brunswick School	66%
4	66	St. George's School	Tabor Academy	82%
4	67	Brunswick School	Tabor Academy	58%
4	68	St. George's School	The Hotchkiss School	64%

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Bruins	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
2	Seawolves	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
3	Bearcats	1-2-3	def.	Falcons	4-5-6
4	Dragons	1-2-3	def.	Avengers	4-5-6
5	Seawolves	1-3-5	def.	Bruins	2-4-6
6	Bearcats	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
7	Eagles	1-4-5	def.	Avengers	2-3-6
8	Dragons	1-2-5	def.	Falcons	3-4-6
9	Bearcats	1-2-6	def.	Seawolves	3-4-5
10	Bruins	1-2-3	def.	Avengers	4-5-6
11	Falcons	1-3-6	def.	Eagles	2-4-5
12	Dragons	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
13	Bearcats	1-2-3	def.	Avengers	4-5-6
14	Seawolves	1-2-5	def.	Falcons	3-4-6
15	Bruins	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
16	Dragons	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
17	Avengers	1-2-5	def.	Falcons	3-4-6
18	Bearcats	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
19	Seawolves	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
20	Dragons	1-2-4	def.	Bruins	3-5-6
21	Eagles	1-3-4	def.	Falcons	2-5-6
22	Avengers	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
23	Bearcats	1-3-6	def.	Bruins	2-4-5
24	Dragons	1-2-5	def.	Seawolves	3-4-6
25	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
26	Bruins	1-2-4	def.	Falcons	3-5-6
27	Seawolves	1-2-6	def.	Avengers	3-4-5
28	Bearcats	1-2-6	def.	Dragons	3-4-5
29	Bruins	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
30	Seawolves	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
31	Bearcats	1-2-3	def.	Falcons	4-5-6
32	Dragons	1-2-3	def.	Avengers	4-5-6
33	Bruins	1-2-5	def.	Seawolves	3-4-6
34	Bearcats	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
35	Eagles	1-4-5	def.	Avengers	2-3-6
36	Dragons	1-2-3	def.	Falcons	4-5-6
37	Seawolves	1-3-6	def.	Bearcats	2-4-5
38	Bruins	1-2-3	def.	Avengers	4-5-6
39	Eagles	1-3-6	def.	Falcons	2-4-5
40	Dragons	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
41	Bearcats	1-2-3	def.	Avengers	4-5-6
42	Seawolves	1-2-3	def.	Falcons	4-5-6
43	Bruins	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
44	Dragons	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
45	Avengers	1-2-5	def.	Falcons	3-4-6
46	Bearcats	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
47	Seawolves	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
48	Dragons	1-2-5	def.	Bruins	3-4-6
49	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Falcons	3-4-5
50	Avengers	1-3-5	def.	Eagles	2-4-6
51	Bearcats	1-2-6	def.	Bruins	3-4-5
52	Dragons	1-2-3	def.	Seawolves	4-5-6
53	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
54	Bruins	1-2-3	def.	Falcons	4-5-6
55	Seawolves	1-2-3	def.	Avengers	4-5-6
56	Dragons	1-2-4	def.	Bearcats	3-5-6
57	Bearcats	1-2-5	def.	Seawolves	3-4-6
58	Dragons	1-2-5	def.	Bruins	3-4-6 OCS
59	Bearcats	1-2-5	def.	Bruins	3-4-6
60	Dragons	1-2-5	def.	Seawolves	3-4-6
61	Seawolves	1-3-6	def.	Bruins	2-4-5
62	Dragons	1-2-6	def.	Bearcats	3-4-5
63	Bearcats	2-3-4	def.	Seawolves	1-5-6
64	Dragons	1-2-5	def.	Bruins	3-4-6
65	Bearcats	1-2-3	def.	Bruins	4-5-6
66	Dragons	1-2-4	def.	Seawolves	3-5-6
67	Bruins	1-2-5	def.	Seawolves	3-4-6
68	Dragons	1-2-6	def.	Bearcats	3-4-5

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
St. George's School	Dragons	Christian Ebbin '24 Gil Hackel '26 Pearse Dowd '25	Avery Peterson '26 Phoebe Fogarty '25 Max Miller '24 Kate Myles '25
The Hotchkiss School	Bearcats	Caleb Kinnear '25 Fynn Olsen '25 Pierce Olsen '25 Samara Walshe '25 Thomas O'Grady '26	Miranda Beitel '25 Dhruv Kothari '25 Phoebe Hackett '24 Thomas O'Grady '26 Dasha Gracheva '26
Tabor Academy	Seawolves	Jack Spillane '25 Patrick Shachoy '24 Peter Herlihy '25	Lucy Lack '24 Jack Schneider '25 Leo Lothian '28 Theo Binder '25
Brunswick School	Bruins	Sebastian Sheppard '27 Thomas Whidden '24 Wills Gandy '30	Alex Ohls '24 Andrew Ohls '26 Henry Ginnel '26 Sean Mensi '26
Barrington High School	Eagles	Christopher Chwalk '24 Duffy Macaulay '27 Jack Gaynor '27	Ellery Kloc '26 Avery Guck '24 Quin Schneider '25 Abby Guertler '25 Lauren Leonard '25
East Greenwich High School	Avengers	Colin Auvil '26 Owen Warren '24 Pierson Falk '24	Harper Kelley '25 Madeleine Jarbeau '24 Isaac Kaldor '25
Lincoln Academy	Eagles	Griffin Chace '26 Otto Schoenthal '25 Toby Clarkson '24	Noah Arbuckle '25 Sam Scott '27 Piper Carleton '24
Fairfield Ludlowe High School	Falcons	Amelia Woodworth '27 Anabelle Woodworth '24 Bradley Kirkpatrick '25	Luke Demartino '27 Isabella Brenner '24 Lucy Murphy '24 Cameron Cooleen '26 Kate Lavallee '25

Conditions — 05/04/2024 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 73% · Pressure 1027.0 hPa

Temperature

54°F

↑ 56°F ↓ 50°F

Feels like 50°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

7.7 kn

avg · max 12.1 kn

Gusts to 15.0 kn

From NE (55°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover87% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity73% Pressure1027.0 hPa

What this breeze does at St George's School — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at St George's School in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.02)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St George's School by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at St George's School: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

Navigate

Menu