The Hotchkiss School '24
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 44.05 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.093 rating points from 124 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →Includes linked high school and college seasons.
| Season | Team | Rating | Range | League percentile |
Team percentile |
On team | Races | Team page |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2025 | Brown University | 2.80 | 81.34 | 36.11 | 12 of 18 | 31 | Team page | |
| Spring 2025 | Brown University | 2.85 | 78.12 | 28.12 | 12 of 16 | 11 | Team page | |
| Fall 2024 | Brown University | 3.05 | 83.24 | 39.58 | 15 of 24 | 28 | Team page | |
| Spring 2023 | The Hotchkiss School | 3.82 | 88.60 | 83.33 | 1 of 3 | 18 | Team page |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.12 | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 56–25 (69%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 2 | — | 16–7 |
| Spring 2023 | 2 | — | 18–9 |
| Spring 2022 | 2 | — | 22–9 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (81 matches) the record is 56–25 against 50.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+5.4). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 6 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-17 | 2024 ISSA Baker Team Race National Championship | crew | 2.82 | 3.21 | 4–3 | 3.6 | +0.39 | 0.1 | 52% |
| 2024-05-04 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy) | crew | 2.85 | 3.43 | 12–4 | 10.8 | +0.58 | 0.4 | 34% |
| 2023-05-20 | 2023 Baker National Championship | crew | 2.80 | 5.71 | 5–2 | 2.1 | +2.91 | 4.7 | 1% |
| 2023-05-06 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy) | crew | 2.70 | 2.65 | 13–7 | 13.1 | −0.04 | 0.0 | 63% |
| 2022-05-21 | Baker Trophy 2022 | crew | 3.26 | 3.07 | 6–5 | 6.3 | −0.19 | 0.0 | 71% |
| 2022-05-14 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy) | crew | 3.04 | 3.53 | 16–4 | 14.7 | +0.49 | 0.3 | 35% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy) | Crew | TR | 20 | 80% | — |
| 2024 ISSA Baker Team Race National Championship | Crew | TR | 17 | 59% | — |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| O'Day Qualifier - Lakevile, CT | Crew | B | 6 | 1.5 | — |
| NESSA Fleet Racing Championship (O'Day Trophy) | Crew | B | 7 | 3.0 | — |
| NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy) | Crew | TR | 20 | 65% | — |
| ISSA Mallory National Championship | Crew | B | 5 | 7.8 | — |
| 2023 Baker National Championship | Crew | TR | 11 | 54% | — |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| O'Day Qualifier @ UConn Avery Point | Crew | A | 7 | 1.7 | — |
| NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy) | Crew | TR | 20 | 80% | — |
| Connecticut State Championship 2022 | Crew | A | 7 | 2.4 | — |
| Baker Trophy 2022 | Crew | TR | 14 | 57% | — |
| 2022 ISSA Mallory Dinghy Nationals | Crew | A | 18 | 8.9 | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Phoebe Hackett |  Brown University |
'28 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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