NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy)

HostConnecticut College
Date05/14/2022
TypeDistrict Championship
BoatCFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	The Hotchkiss School	Bearcats	16–4
2	St. George's School	Dragons	15–5
3	Brunswick School	Bruins	14–6
4	Greens Farms Academy	Dragons	8–12
5	Portsmouth Abbey School	Ravens	7–7
6	Tabor Academy	Seawolves	6–8
7	Barrington High School	Eagles	2–12
8	Portland High School	Bulldogs	0–14

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 8,622 team race matches sailed before 2022-05-14, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 56 of 68 matches (82%) with a log-loss of 0.408 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.65 ± 0.32: an orderly event, more orderly than 89% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	The Hotchkiss School Bearcats	1	8.28 school −0.07	Chapman Petersen / Phoebe Hackett 3.04 Samara Walshe / Oscar Emus 14–4 Jeb Bechtel / Kate Moran 14–4 Samara Walshe / Lucy Jervis 2–0 Jeb Bechtel / Oscar Emus 2–0	74%	16–4 (80%)	+1.3
2	St. George's School Dragons	2	7.79 school +0.29	Sophie Fisher / Lucca Antonietti 2.68 Juan Carlos Lacerda Jones / Phoebe Fogarty 2.38 13–5 Christian Ebbin / Hope Breslin 13–5 Juan Carlos Lacerda Jones / Sloane Mullin 2.42 2–0 Christian Ebbin / Phoebe Fogarty 2–0	64%	15–5 (75%)	+2.1
3	Brunswick School Bruins	3	7.46 school +0.08	Ben Sheppard / Alex Ohls 11–5 Sebastian Sheppard / Wills Gandy 11–5 Robert Ulmer / Asher Lloyds 2.24 10–4 Ben Sheppard / Asher Lloyds 3–1 Sebastian Sheppard / Greer Sconzo 3–1 Robert Ulmer / Christian Ohlemeyer 2.40 3–1 Thomas Whidden / Asher Lloyds 2.25 1–1	58%	14–6 (70%)	+2.4
4	Greens Farms Academy Dragons	6	6.85 school +0.32	Katherine Mcnamara / Andrew Wagner 2.34 Griffin Gigliotti / Max Laferriere 2.13 Cole Nightingale / Harry Harmston 1.97 5–11 Cole Nightingale / Ava Stevens 1.87 3–1	46%	8–12 (40%)	−1.1
5	Portsmouth Abbey School Ravens	5	6.70	Alex Adams / Mary Davidson Felix Cutler / Ainsley West Nathan Smith / Mary Adams	49%	7–7 (50%)	+0.1
6	Tabor Academy Seawolves	4	7.00 school +0.35	Wyatt Bischoff / Ellie Dyroff Sophia Peck / Young Hu Jonnie Ciffolillo / Carter Riggs	56%	6–8 (43%)	−1.8
7	Barrington High School Eagles	7	5.57	Gus Macaulay / Quin Schneider 2–10 Christopher Chwalk / George White 2–10 Brendan Jay / Lauren Leonard 2–8 Brendan Jay / Jack Culton 0–2 Olin Guck / Nate Schneider 0–2 Christopher Chwalk / Brendan Jay 0–2 Gus Macaulay / Jack Culton 0–2	30%	2–12 (14%)	−2.3
8	Portland High School Bulldogs	8	3.27 school −0.18	Aoife Mahoney / Jack Taylor 0.60 Eva Ermlich / Gregg O'Rourke 1.67 0–12 Posie Cabaniss / Valyn Mogensen 1.03 0–12 Eva Ermlich / Simone Daranyi 1.69 0–2 Posie Cabaniss / Gregg O'Rourke 1.10 0–2	6%	0–14 (0%)	−0.8

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
3	Brunswick School	7.46	8.25	14–6	11.5	+0.79	1.1	17%
2	St. George's School	7.79	8.52	15–5	12.9	+0.73	0.9	21%
1	The Hotchkiss School	8.28	8.77	16–4	14.7	+0.49	0.3	35%
5	Portsmouth Abbey School	6.70	6.75	7–7	6.9	+0.06	0.0	59%
4	Greens Farms Academy	6.85	6.49	8–12	9.1	−0.36	0.2	79%
6	Tabor Academy	7.00	6.17	6–8	7.8	−0.83	0.8	92%
7	Barrington High School	5.57	3.79	2–12	4.3	−1.77	2.0	98%
8	Portland High School	3.27	0.27	0–14	0.8	≤−3.00	1.1	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Sebastian Sheppard	Brunswick School	2.63	3.42	14–6	11.5	+0.79	1.1	17%
Jeb Bechtel	The Hotchkiss School	2.38	2.88	16–4	14.7	+0.49	0.3	35%
Alex Adams	Portsmouth Abbey School	1.86	1.92	7–7	6.9	+0.06	0.0	59%
Cole Nightingale	Greens Farms Academy	1.97	1.60	8–12	9.1	−0.36	0.2	79%
Aoife Mahoney	Portland High School	0.60	-2.40	0–14	0.8	≤−3.00	1.1	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	The Hotchkiss School	Barrington High School	89%
1	2	Greens Farms Academy	Portsmouth Abbey School	59%
1	3	Brunswick School	St. George's School	45%	upset
1	4	Tabor Academy	Portland High School	94%
1	5	Greens Farms Academy	Barrington High School	75%
1	6	St. George's School	The Hotchkiss School	40%	upset
1	7	Portsmouth Abbey School	Tabor Academy	44%	upset
1	8	Brunswick School	Portland High School	96%
1	9	St. George's School	Greens Farms Academy	65%
1	10	Tabor Academy	Barrington High School	74%
1	11	The Hotchkiss School	Brunswick School	65%
1	12	Portsmouth Abbey School	Portland High School	93%
1	13	St. George's School	Tabor Academy	64%
1	14	Brunswick School	Greens Farms Academy	60%
1	15	Portsmouth Abbey School	Barrington High School	70%
1	16	The Hotchkiss School	Portland High School	98%
1	17	Tabor Academy	Brunswick School	43%	upset
1	18	St. George's School	Portsmouth Abbey School	69%
1	19	The Hotchkiss School	Greens Farms Academy	74%
1	20	Barrington High School	Portland High School	86%
1	21	Portsmouth Abbey School	Brunswick School	36%	upset
1	22	The Hotchkiss School	Tabor Academy	72%
1	23	St. George's School	Barrington High School	84%
1	24	Greens Farms Academy	Portland High School	94%
1	25	The Hotchkiss School	Portsmouth Abbey School	75%
1	26	Brunswick School	Barrington High School	84%
1	27	Greens Farms Academy	Tabor Academy	44%	upset
1	28	St. George's School	Portland High School	97%
2	29	The Hotchkiss School	Barrington High School	88%
2	30	Greens Farms Academy	Portsmouth Abbey School	52%
2	31	St. George's School	Brunswick School	57%
2	32	Tabor Academy	Portland High School	95%
2	33	Greens Farms Academy	Barrington High School	71%
2	34	The Hotchkiss School	St. George's School	59%
2	35	Portsmouth Abbey School	Tabor Academy	44%	upset
2	36	Brunswick School	Portland High School	96%
2	37	Greens Farms Academy	St. George's School	32%	upset
2	38	Tabor Academy	Barrington High School	75%
2	39	The Hotchkiss School	Brunswick School	66%
2	40	Portsmouth Abbey School	Portland High School	94%
2	41	St. George's School	Tabor Academy	64%
2	42	Brunswick School	Greens Farms Academy	62%
2	43	Portsmouth Abbey School	Barrington High School	70%
2	44	The Hotchkiss School	Portland High School	98%
2	45	Brunswick School	Tabor Academy	55%
2	46	St. George's School	Portsmouth Abbey School	69%
2	47	The Hotchkiss School	Greens Farms Academy	76%
2	48	Barrington High School	Portland High School	87%
2	49	Brunswick School	Portsmouth Abbey School	63%
2	50	The Hotchkiss School	Tabor Academy	72%
2	51	St. George's School	Barrington High School	84%
2	52	Greens Farms Academy	Portland High School	93%
2	53	The Hotchkiss School	Portsmouth Abbey School	75%
2	54	Brunswick School	Barrington High School	83%
2	55	Tabor Academy	Greens Farms Academy	58%
2	56	St. George's School	Portland High School	97%
3	57	St. George's School	Brunswick School	57%
3	58	The Hotchkiss School	Greens Farms Academy	76%
3	59	St. George's School	Greens Farms Academy	69%
3	60	Brunswick School	The Hotchkiss School	34%	upset
3	61	Brunswick School	Greens Farms Academy	62%
3	62	The Hotchkiss School	St. George's School	59%
4	63	Brunswick School	St. George's School	43%	upset
4	64	The Hotchkiss School	Greens Farms Academy	76%
4	65	St. George's School	Greens Farms Academy	69%
4	66	Brunswick School	The Hotchkiss School	34%	upset
4	67	Brunswick School	Greens Farms Academy	62%
4	68	St. George's School	The Hotchkiss School	41%	upset

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Bearcats	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
2	Dragons	2-3-4	def.	Ravens	1-5-6
3	Bruins	1-2-6	def.	Dragons	3-4-5
4	Seawolves	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
5	Dragons	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
6	Dragons	1-3-5	def.	Bearcats	2-4-6
7	Ravens	1-2-6	def.	Seawolves	3-4-5
8	Bruins	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
9	Dragons	1-2-3	def.	Dragons	4-5-6
10	Seawolves	1-3-4	def.	Eagles	2-5-6
11	Bearcats	1-3-6	def.	Bruins	2-4-5
12	Ravens	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
13	Dragons	2-3-4	def.	Seawolves	1-5-6
14	Bruins	1-2-6	def.	Dragons	3-4-5
15	Ravens	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
16	Bearcats	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
17	Seawolves	1-2-5	def.	Bruins	3-4-6
18	Dragons	1-2-6	def.	Ravens	3-4-5
19	Bearcats	1-3-6	def.	Dragons	2-4-5
20	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
21	Ravens	1-4-5 DSQ	def.	Bruins	2-3-6 DSQ
22	Bearcats	1-2-6	def.	Seawolves	3-4-5
23	Dragons	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
24	Dragons	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
25	Bearcats	1-2-5	def.	Ravens	3-4-6
26	Bruins	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
27	Dragons	1-2-4	def.	Seawolves	3-5-6
28	Dragons	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
29	Bearcats	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
30	Dragons	1-2-4	def.	Ravens	3-5-6
31	Dragons	1-2-4	def.	Bruins	3-5-6
32	Seawolves	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
33	Dragons	1-3-5	def.	Eagles	2-4-6
34	Bearcats	1-2-6	def.	Dragons	3-4-5
35	Ravens	2-3-4	def.	Seawolves	1-5-6
36	Bruins	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
37	Dragons	1-4-5	def.	Dragons	2-3-6
38	Seawolves	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
39	Bearcats	2-3-4	def.	Bruins	1-5-6
40	Ravens	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
41	Dragons	2-3-4	def.	Seawolves	1-5-6
42	Bruins	1-2-5	def.	Dragons	3-4-6
43	Ravens	1-3-4	def.	Eagles	2-5-6
44	Bearcats	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
45	Bruins	1-2-5	def.	Seawolves	3-4-6
46	Dragons	1-4-5	def.	Ravens	2-3-6
47	Bearcats	1-2-6	def.	Dragons	3-4-5
48	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
49	Bruins	2-3-4	def.	Ravens	1-5-6
50	Bearcats	1-2-4	def.	Seawolves	3-5-6
51	Dragons	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
52	Dragons	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
53	Bearcats	1-3-5	def.	Ravens	2-4-6
54	Bruins	1-3-6	def.	Eagles	2-4-5
55	Seawolves	1-2-3	def.	Dragons	4-5-6
56	Dragons	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
57	Dragons	1-2-4	def.	Bruins	3-5-6
58	Bearcats	1-2-3	def.	Dragons	4-5-6
59	Dragons	1-2-6	def.	Dragons	3-4-5
60	Bruins	1-2-6	def.	Bearcats	3-4-5
61	Bruins	1-2-5	def.	Dragons	3-4-6
62	Bearcats	1-2-6	def.	Dragons	3-4-5
63	Bruins	1-2-6	def.	Dragons	3-4-5
64	Bearcats	1-2-4	def.	Dragons	3-5-6
65	Dragons	1-2-4	def.	Dragons	3-5-6
66	Bruins	2-3-4	def.	Bearcats	1-5-6
67	Bruins	1-2-5	def.	Dragons	3-4-6
68	Dragons	2-3-4	def.	Bearcats	1-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
The Hotchkiss School	Bearcats	Chapman Petersen '22 Jeb Bechtel '22 Samara Walshe '25	Phoebe Hackett '24 Kate Moran '23 Oscar Emus '23 Lucy Jervis '23
St. George's School	Dragons	Christian Ebbin '24 Juan Carlos Lacerda Jones '22 Sophie Fisher '22	Phoebe Fogarty '25 Hope Breslin '22 Sloane Mullin '23 Lucca Antonietti '25
Brunswick School	Bruins	Ben Sheppard '23 Robert Ulmer '24 Sebastian Sheppard '27 Thomas Whidden '24	Asher Lloyds '24 Alex Ohls '24 Christian Ohlemeyer '23 Greer Sconzo '23 Wills Gandy '30
Greens Farms Academy	Dragons	Cole Nightingale '23 Griffin Gigliotti '22 Katherine Mcnamara '22	Harry Harmston '24 Ava Stevens '24 Max Laferriere '23 Andrew Wagner '22
Portsmouth Abbey School	Ravens	Alex Adams '22 Felix Cutler '22 Nathan Smith '22	Mary Davidson '24 Ainsley West '24 Mary Adams '24
Tabor Academy	Seawolves	Jonnie Ciffolillo '23 Sophia Peck '22 Wyatt Bischoff '23	Carter Riggs '22 Young Hu '22 Ellie Dyroff '22
Barrington High School	Eagles	Brendan Jay '23 Christopher Chwalk '24 Gus Macaulay '23 Olin Guck '22	Lauren Leonard '25 Jack Culton '22 George White '23 Brendan Jay '23 Quin Schneider '25 Nate Schneider '22
Portland High School	Bulldogs	Aoife Mahoney '23 Eva Ermlich '22 Posie Cabaniss '23	Jack Taylor '23 Gregg O'Rourke '22 Simone Daranyi '23 Valyn Mogensen '22

Conditions — 05/14/2022 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 83% · Pressure 1018.3 hPa

Temperature

69°F

↑ 74°F ↓ 63°F

Feels like 71°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.1 kn

avg · max 8.2 kn

Gusts to 20.6 kn

From SSW (209°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine8.0 hrs Humidity83% Pressure1018.3 hPa

What this breeze does at Connecticut College — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Connecticut College in this breeze: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.11)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.11 means a rating gap counts about 9% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Connecticut College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (51 labelled fleet-race days at Connecticut College).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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