Brunswick School '24
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.44 (fleet 3.88) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.05 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 30–14 (68%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 2 | 10–3 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 13–5 | — |
| Spring 2021 | 1 | 7–6 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (44 matches) the record is 30–14 against 23.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+6.6). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-05-20 | 2023 Baker National Championship | skipper | 2.89 | 4.37 | 4–3 | 2.5 | +1.48 | 1.3 | 17% |
| 2023-05-06 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy) | skipper | 2.66 | 5.66 | 6–0 | 5.0 | ≥+3.00 | 1.4 | 34% |
| 2022-05-14 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy) | skipper | 2.24 | 3.20 | 13–5 | 10.4 | +0.95 | 1.3 | 14% |
| 2021-05-22 | 2021 ISSA Baker Team Race National Championship | skipper | 1.84 | 2.68 | 7–6 | 5.4 | +0.84 | 0.7 | 24% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA Fleet Racing Championship (O'Day Trophy) | Skipper | B | 1 | 6.0 | -0.01 |
| NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 20 | 85% | — |
| 2023 Baker National Championship | Skipper | TR | 11 | 46% | — |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| O'Day Qualifier @ UConn Avery Point | Skipper | B | 2 | 4.0 | 2.35 |
| NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 20 | 70% | — |
| NESSA George O'Day Trophy | Skipper | B | 5 | 4.4 | 1.36 |
| Connecticut State Championship 2022 | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.2 | 0.78 |
| 2022 ISSA Mallory Dinghy Nationals | Skipper | B | 8 | 8.4 | 1.09 |
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Connecticut State Championship | Skipper | A | 5 | 2.6 | 0.73 |
| 2021 ISSA Baker Team Race National Championship | Skipper | TR | 14 | 57% | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Robert Ulmer |  Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
'27 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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