2021 ISSA Baker Team Race National Championship

HostRansom Everglades
Date05/22/2021
TypeNational Championship
BoatC420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Antilles School	Hurricanes	12–2
2	Ransom Everglades School	Raiders	12–2
3	Severn School	Admirals	10–4
4	Christchurch School	Seahorses	7–7
5	Brunswick School	Bruins	8–6
6	Greens Farms Academy	Dragons	8–6
7	Lake Travis High School	Cavaliers	7–7
8	Mater Dei High School	MONARCHS	7–7
9	Corona del Mar High School	Sea Kings	6–8
10	Minnetonka High School	Skippers	3–11
11	Grosse Pointe South High School	Blue Devils	2–12
12	Olympia High School	Bears	2–12

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 7,622 team race matches sailed before 2021-05-22, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 52 of 73 matches (71%) with a log-loss of 0.615 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.90 ± 0.28: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 9% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Antilles School Hurricanes	3	9.22 school +0.55	Rayne Duff / Savannah Young 2.92 Mia Nicolosi / Jj Knowles 2.85 11–2 Mateo Di Blasi / Katherine Majette 2.82 11–2 Mia Nicolosi / Katherine Majette 2.90 2–1 Mateo Di Blasi / Caitlin Briggs 2.83 2–1	73%	13–3 (81%)	+1.4
2	Ransom Everglades School Raiders	4	8.83 school +0.18, home +0.01	Liam O'Keefe / Adam Kaplan 2.90 Stephan Baker / Nicolas Echarte 2.84 11–4 Javier Garcon / Lucas Vianna 2.82 7–4 Javier Garcon / Louis La Fontisse 2.82 5–0 Stephan Baker / Aidan Murphy 2.90 1–0	66%	12–4 (75%)	+1.5
3	Severn School Admirals	2	9.21 school +0.11	Owen Hennessey / Alex Brenia 2.77 Thomas Sitzmann / Raam Fox 3.50 6–2 Thomas Sitzmann / Robby Meek 3.47 3–2 Zander King / Rees Tindall 2.50 3–2 Robby Meek / Lilly Baker 3.03 3–2 Robby Meek / Rees Tindall 3.01 3–0	76%	9–4 (69%)	−0.9
4	Christchurch School Seahorses	7	6.85 school +0.10	Gannon Troutman / Reese Bragg 2.07 Carlos Bermudez De Castro Castro / Aidan Iaconis 2.73 4–5 Maison Koepke / Jaxon Parker Searcy 1.86 3–5 Maison Koepke / Marina Dryer 2.00 3–2 Carlos Bermudez De Castro Castro / Emilie Janzen 2.77 2–2	39%	6–7 (46%)	+1.0
5	Brunswick School Bruins	6	6.34 school −0.11	Robert Ulmer / Christian Ohlemeyer Leyton Borcherding / Rafe Sconzo 1.85 6–4 William Michels / Thomas Whidden 2.62 6–4 Leyton Borcherding / Greer Sconzo 1.86 1–2 William Michels / Rafe Sconzo 2.63 1–2	42%	7–6 (54%)	+1.6
6	Greens Farms Academy Dragons	8	5.75	Katherine Mcnamara / Harry Harmston 2.10 Sofia Segalla / Andrew Wagner 1.68 5–3 Griffin Gigliotti / Andrew Audemard 2.00 5–3 Sofia Segalla / Max Laferriere 1.69 2–2 Griffin Gigliotti / Max Laferriere 1.91 1–2 Cole Nightingale / Andrew Audemard 1–1 Sofia Segalla / Ava Stevens 1.66 0–1	32%	7–6 (54%)	+2.8
7	Lake Travis High School Cavaliers	11	4.97 school +0.30	James Brock / Vivian Heitkoetter 2.12 Lucy Brock / Kate Hennig Julius Heitkoetter / William Cranney-Fee	20%	6–7 (46%)	+3.4
8	Mater Dei High School MONARCHS	1	8.84 school +0.23	Morgan Pinckney / Kennedy Leehealey 3.19 Chase Decker / Maxwell Kleha 2.44 5–5 Reade Decker / Luke Ure 2.85 2–4 Reade Decker / Sophia Mulvania 2.96 3–3 Chase Decker / Peter Sangmeister 2.43 0–2	79%	5–7 (42%)	−4.5
9	Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings	5	7.30 school +0.07	Tyler Wood / Marlo Bozza 2.35 Dylan Sih / Connor Chung 2.11 Nathan Sih / Sophia Pearce 2.69 5–7 Nathan Sih / Kyle Davis 2.56 0–1	58%	5–8 (38%)	−2.5
10	Minnetonka High School Skippers	9	5.57 school −0.06	Jacob Zils / Jordi Malaret 1.98 2–7 Greg Bittle / Carmen Lineer 1.63 0–7 Lucia Loosbrock / Max Sigel 2.10 2–4 Max Sigel / Jacob Zils 1.58 0–3 Lucia Loosbrock / Jordi Malaret 2.09 0–3 Max Sigel / Carmen Lineer 1.63 0–3 Lucia Loosbrock / Greg Bittle 2.08 0–3 Greg Bittle / Emma Komis 1.64 2–0	28%	2–10 (17%)	−1.3
11	Grosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils	10	5.66 school +0.17	Doug Cowan / Ryan Hexter 2.24 Billy Vogel / Christina Thomas 1.31 1–9 Gavin Webster / Aidan King 1.80 1–6 Braden Vogel / Colin Hexter 1.82 0–5 Braden Vogel / Aidan King 1.88 0–2	28%	1–11 (8%)	−2.3

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
7	Lake Travis High School	4.97	6.85	6–7	2.6	+1.88	3.8	2%
6	Greens Farms Academy	5.75	7.28	7–6	4.2	+1.52	2.5	6%
5	Brunswick School	6.34	7.18	7–6	5.4	+0.84	0.7	24%
1	Antilles School	9.22	9.96	13–3	11.6	+0.74	0.5	30%
2	Ransom Everglades School	8.83	9.52	12–4	10.5	+0.69	0.6	29%
4	Christchurch School	6.85	7.42	6–7	5.0	+0.57	0.3	37%
3	Severn School	9.21	8.62	9–4	9.9	−0.59	0.3	85%
10	Minnetonka High School	5.57	4.53	2–10	3.3	−1.04	0.8	92%
9	Corona del Mar High School	7.30	5.94	5–8	7.6	−1.36	2.0	98%
11	Grosse Pointe South High School	5.66	3.57	1–11	3.3	−2.10	2.4	99%
8	Mater Dei High School	8.84	6.00	5–7	9.5	−2.84	7.6	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Lucy Brock	Lake Travis High School	1.86	3.74	6–7	2.6	+1.88	3.8	2%
Julius Heitkoetter	Lake Travis High School	0.41	2.30	6–7	2.6	+1.88	3.8	2%
Carlos Bermudez De Castro Castro	Christchurch School	2.73	3.31	6–7	5.0	+0.57	0.3	37%
Billy Vogel	Grosse Pointe South High School	1.31	-0.73	1–9	3.1	−2.04	2.2	98%
Doug Cowan	Grosse Pointe South High School	2.24	0.14	1–11	3.3	−2.10	2.4	99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Antilles School	Brunswick School	91%
1	2	Lake Travis High School	Mater Dei High School	4%	upset
1	3	Christchurch School	Greens Farms Academy	70%
1	4	Ransom Everglades School	Minnetonka High School	92%
1	5	Grosse Pointe South High School	Corona del Mar High School	23%	upset
1	7	Antilles School	Christchurch School	86%
1	8	Lake Travis High School	Minnetonka High School	34%	upset
1	9	Greens Farms Academy	Brunswick School	40%	upset
1	10	Ransom Everglades School	Mater Dei High School	50%
1	11	Antilles School	Grosse Pointe South High School	94%
1	12	Severn School	Lake Travis High School	96%
1	13	Christchurch School	Corona del Mar High School	41%	upset
1	15	Brunswick School	Grosse Pointe South High School	64%
1	16	Severn School	Mater Dei High School	52%
1	17	Antilles School	Greens Farms Academy	94%
1	18	Ransom Everglades School	Lake Travis High School	95%
1	19	Corona del Mar High School	Brunswick School	68%
1	21	Christchurch School	Grosse Pointe South High School	72%
1	22	Severn School	Minnetonka High School	94%
1	23	Corona del Mar High School	Greens Farms Academy	76%
1	25	Brunswick School	Christchurch School	41%	upset
1	26	Mater Dei High School	Minnetonka High School	94%
1	27	Antilles School	Corona del Mar High School	82%
1	29	Greens Farms Academy	Grosse Pointe South High School	51%
1	30	Ransom Everglades School	Severn School	49%	upset
1	31	Antilles School	Minnetonka High School	94%
1	32	Brunswick School	Mater Dei High School	13%	upset
1	33	Christchurch School	Lake Travis High School	82%
1	35	Ransom Everglades School	Greens Farms Academy	92%
1	36	Severn School	Grosse Pointe South High School	93%
1	37	Brunswick School	Minnetonka High School	64%
1	38	Antilles School	Lake Travis High School	96%
1	39	Mater Dei High School	Corona del Mar High School	77%
1	40	Severn School	Christchurch School	88%
1	41	Ransom Everglades School	Grosse Pointe South High School	89%
1	43	Antilles School	Mater Dei High School	56%
1	44	Lake Travis High School	Corona del Mar High School	14%	upset
1	45	Severn School	Brunswick School	92%
1	46	Ransom Everglades School	Christchurch School	81%
1	47	Greens Farms Academy	Minnetonka High School	52%
1	49	Severn School	Corona del Mar High School	84%
1	50	Ransom Everglades School	Antilles School	42%	upset
1	51	Christchurch School	Mater Dei High School	18%	upset
1	52	Brunswick School	Lake Travis High School	74%
1	53	Minnetonka High School	Grosse Pointe South High School	52%
1	54	Greens Farms Academy	Severn School	6%	upset
1	56	Ransom Everglades School	Corona del Mar High School	76%
1	57	Lake Travis High School	Grosse Pointe South High School	39%	upset
1	58	Greens Farms Academy	Mater Dei High School	8%	upset
1	59	Christchurch School	Minnetonka High School	73%
1	61	Antilles School	Severn School	46%	upset
1	62	Mater Dei High School	Grosse Pointe South High School	93%
1	63	Greens Farms Academy	Lake Travis High School	65%
1	64	Corona del Mar High School	Minnetonka High School	78%
1	65	Brunswick School	Ransom Everglades School	13%	upset
1	67	Ransom Everglades School	Christchurch School	81%
1	68	Severn School	Antilles School	54%
1	69	Ransom Everglades School	Severn School	49%	upset
1	70	Antilles School	Christchurch School	87%
1	71	Antilles School	Ransom Everglades School	58%
1	72	Severn School	Christchurch School	88%
2	74	Ransom Everglades School	Antilles School	42%	upset
2	75	Antilles School	Ransom Everglades School	58%
2	76	Corona del Mar High School	Brunswick School	68%
2	77	Lake Travis High School	Greens Farms Academy	35%	upset
2	78	Lake Travis High School	Brunswick School	26%	upset
2	79	Greens Farms Academy	Corona del Mar High School	24%	upset
2	80	Brunswick School	Greens Farms Academy	61%
2	81	Corona del Mar High School	Lake Travis High School	85%
2	82	Mater Dei High School	Grosse Pointe South High School	93%
2	84	Mater Dei High School	Minnetonka High School	94%
2	87	Minnetonka High School	Grosse Pointe South High School	51%
3	73	Antilles School	Ransom Everglades School	58%

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Hurricanes	1-2-3	def.	Bruins	4-5-6
2	Cavaliers	1-2-6	def.	MONARCHS	3-4-5
3	Seahorses	1-2-6	def.	Dragons	3-4-5
4	Raiders	1-2-3	def.	Skippers	4-5-6
5	Blue Devils	1-2-5	def.	Sea Kings	3-4-6
6	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
7	Hurricanes	1-2-3	def.	Seahorses	4-5-6
8	Cavaliers	1-2-4	def.	Skippers	3-5-6
9	Dragons	1-3-5	def.	Bruins	2-4-6
10	Raiders	1-2-4	def.	MONARCHS	3-5-6
11	Hurricanes	1-2-3	def.	Blue Devils	4-5-6
12	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Cavaliers	4-5-6
13	Seahorses	1-2-5	def.	Sea Kings	3-4-6
14	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Skippers	3-4-5
15	Bruins	1-2-6	def.	Blue Devils	3-4-5
16	Admirals	1-2-4	def.	MONARCHS	3-5-6
17	Hurricanes	1-2-4	def.	Dragons	3-5-6
18	Raiders	1-2-4	def.	Cavaliers	3-5-6
19	Sea Kings	1-4-5	def.	Bruins	2-3-6
20	MONARCHS	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
21	Seahorses	1-2-4	def.	Blue Devils	3-5-6
22	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Skippers	4-5-6
23	Sea Kings	1-2-3	def.	Dragons	4-5-6
24	Raiders	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
25	Bruins	1-2-6	def.	Seahorses	3-4-5
26	MONARCHS	1-2-6	def.	Skippers	3-4-5
27	Hurricanes	1-2-4	def.	Sea Kings	3-5-6
28	Cavaliers	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
29	Dragons	1-2-6	def.	Blue Devils	3-4-5
30	Raiders	1-2-6	def.	Admirals	3-4-5
31	Hurricanes	1-2-3	def.	Skippers	4-5-6
32	Bruins	2-3-4	def.	MONARCHS	1-5-6
33	Seahorses	1-4-5	def.	Cavaliers	2-3-6
34	Sea Kings	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
35	Raiders	1-2-3	def.	Dragons	4-5-6
36	Admirals	1-2-5	def.	Blue Devils	3-4-6
37	Bruins	1-2-3	def.	Skippers	4-5-6
38	Hurricanes	1-2-5	def.	Cavaliers	3-4-6
39	MONARCHS	1-2-6	def.	Sea Kings	3-4-5
40	Admirals	1-3-4	def.	Seahorses	2-5-6
41	Raiders	1-2-3	def.	Blue Devils	4-5-6
42	Dragons	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
43	Hurricanes	1-2-5	def.	MONARCHS	3-4-6
44	Cavaliers	1-2-3	def.	Sea Kings	4-5-6
45	Admirals	2-3-4	def.	Bruins	1-5-6
46	Raiders	1-2-3	def.	Seahorses	4-5-6
47	Dragons	1-2-5	def.	Skippers	3-4-6
48	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Blue Devils	1-5-6
49	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Sea Kings	4-5-6
50	Raiders	1-2-5	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-6
51	Seahorses	1-3-5	def.	MONARCHS	2-4-6
52	Bruins	1-2-4	def.	Cavaliers	3-5-6
53	Skippers	1-4-5	def.	Blue Devils	2-3-6
54	Dragons	2-3-4	def.	Admirals	1-5-6
55	Hurricanes	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
56	Raiders	1-2-4	def.	Sea Kings	3-5-6
57	Cavaliers	1-2-3	def.	Blue Devils	4-5-6
58	Dragons	1-2-6	def.	MONARCHS	3-4-5
59	Seahorses	1-2-3	def.	Skippers	4-5-6
60	Bruins	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
61	Hurricanes	1-2-6	def.	Admirals	3-4-5
62	MONARCHS	1-2-3	def.	Blue Devils	4-5-6
63	Dragons	1-2-6	def.	Cavaliers	3-4-5
64	Sea Kings	1-2-5	def.	Skippers	3-4-6
65	Bruins	1-2-4	def.	Raiders	3-5-6
66	Seahorses	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
67	Raiders	1-2-4	def.	Seahorses	3-5-6
68	Admirals	1-2-3	def.	Hurricanes	4-5-6
69	Raiders	1-2-4	def.	Admirals	3-5-6
70	Hurricanes	2-3-4	def.	Seahorses	1-5-6
71	Hurricanes	1-2-5	def.	Raiders	3-4-6
72	Admirals	1-2-4	def.	Seahorses	3-5-6
74	Raiders	1-4-5	def.	Hurricanes	2-3-6
75	Hurricanes	1-2-4	def.	Raiders	3-5-6
76	Sea Kings	1-2-5	def.	Bruins	3-4-6
77	Cavaliers	1-2-4	def.	Dragons	3-5-6
78	Cavaliers	1-2-5	def.	Bruins	3-4-6
79	Dragons	2-3-4	def.	Sea Kings	1-5-6
80	Bruins	1-2-3	def.	Dragons	4-5-6
81	Sea Kings	1-2-6	def.	Cavaliers	3-4-5
82	MONARCHS	1-2-3	def.	Blue Devils	4-5-6
83	Skippers	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
84	MONARCHS	1-2-3	def.	Skippers	4-5-6
85	Blue Devils	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
86	MONARCHS	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
87	Skippers	1-3-4	def.	Blue Devils	2-5-6
73	Hurricanes	2-3-4	def.	Raiders	1-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Antilles School	Hurricanes	Mateo Di Blasi '21 Mia Nicolosi '21 Rayne Duff '21	Caitlin Briggs '23 Katherine Majette '23 Jj Knowles '22 Savannah Young '21
Ransom Everglades School	Raiders	Javier Garcon '21 Liam O'Keefe '21 Stephan Baker '22	Lucas Vianna '21 Louis La Fontisse '21 Adam Kaplan '21 Nicolas Echarte '21 Aidan Murphy '21
Severn School	Admirals	Owen Hennessey '21 Robby Meek '23 Thomas Sitzmann '23 Zander King '21	Alex Brenia '22 Lilly Baker '23 Rees Tindall '21 Raam Fox '22 Robby Meek '23
Christchurch School	Seahorses	Carlos Bermudez De Castro Castro '22 Gannon Troutman '21 Maison Koepke '23	Aidan Iaconis '22 Emilie Janzen '22 Reese Bragg '21 Jaxon Parker Searcy '22 Marina Dryer '22
Brunswick School	Bruins	Leyton Borcherding '21 Robert Ulmer '24 William Michels '21	Greer Sconzo '23 Rafe Sconzo '21 Christian Ohlemeyer '23 Thomas Whidden '24
Greens Farms Academy	Dragons	Cole Nightingale '23 Griffin Gigliotti '22 Katherine Mcnamara '22 Sofia Segalla '21	Andrew Audemard '21 Max Laferriere '23 Harry Harmston '24 Ava Stevens '24 Andrew Wagner '22
Lake Travis High School	Cavaliers	James Brock '24 Julius Heitkoetter '23 Lucy Brock '23	Vivian Heitkoetter '23 William Cranney-Fee '23 Kate Hennig '23
Mater Dei High School	MONARCHS	Chase Decker '24 Morgan Pinckney '23 Reade Decker '23	Maxwell Kleha '21 Peter Sangmeister '21 Kennedy Leehealey '22 Sophia Mulvania '22 Luke Ure '23
Corona del Mar High School	Sea Kings	Dylan Sih '24 Nathan Sih '21 Tyler Wood '22	Connor Chung '22 Sophia Pearce '22 Kyle Davis '23 Marlo Bozza '21
Minnetonka High School	Skippers	Greg Bittle '21 Jacob Zils '23 Lucia Loosbrock '21 Max Sigel '22	Carmen Lineer '23 Emma Komis '22 Jordi Malaret '23 Greg Bittle '21 Max Sigel '22 Jacob Zils '23
Grosse Pointe South High School	Blue Devils	Billy Vogel '22 Braden Vogel '23 Doug Cowan '22 Gavin Webster '24	Christina Thomas '22 Colin Hexter '23 Aidan King '22 Ryan Hexter '22

Conditions — 05/22/2021 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear

Humidity 54% · Pressure 1022.4 hPa

Temperature

80°F

↑ 82°F ↓ 76°F

Feels like 79°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

13.3 kn

avg · max 15.1 kn

Gusts to 28.6 kn

From ENE (76°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover36% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity54% Pressure1022.4 hPa

What this breeze does at Ransom Everglades — from fleet racing

Breeze: E about 14 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Ransom Everglades in this breeze: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.21)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.21 means a rating gap counts about 18% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Ransom Everglades by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 14 labelled days at Ransom Everglades, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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