Lake Travis High School '23
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 86.68 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.102 rating points from 76 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →Includes linked high school and college seasons.
| Season | Team | Rating | Range | League percentile |
Team percentile |
On team | Races | Team page |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2024 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology | 4.16 | 93.82 | 84.38 | 3 of 16 | 10 | Team page | |
| Fall 2023 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology | 4.00 | 91.32 | 73.08 | 4 of 13 | 10 | Team page | |
| Fall 2022 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology | 4.06 | 92.07 | 60.71 | 6 of 14 | 10 | Team page |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.14 | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 6–7 (46%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2021 | 1 | 6–7 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (13 matches) the record is 6–7 against 2.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.4). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-05-22 | 2021 ISSA Baker Team Race National Championship | skipper | 0.41 | 2.30 | 6–7 | 2.6 | +1.88 | 3.8 | 2% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| SEISA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 6 | 100% | — |
| SEISA Fleet Race Championships | Crew | A | 6 | 1.5 | — |
| 2021 ISSA Mallory Fleet Race National Championship | Crew | A | 7 | 11.3 | — |
| 2021 ISSA Baker Team Race National Championship | Skipper | TR | 14 | 50% | — |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| SEISA Doublehanded Championship | Skipper | B | 3 | 3.0 | 1.14 |
| 2019 Texas State Champs | Skipper | A | 13 | 4.3 | 1.38 |
| 2019 SEISA Team Race Champs | Skipper | TR | 6 | 33% | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Allstate Sugar Bowl Great Oaks Regatta 2018 GOLD | Crew | A | 8 | 3.1 | — |
| Allstate Sugar Bowl Great Oaks Regatta 2018 GREEN | Crew | A | 8 | 2.9 | — |
| 2018 SEISA Keelboat Championship Keelboat | Crew | A | 5 | 1.6 | — |
| 2018 LTHS Fall Classic | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.9 | 2.11 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Texas State Champs | Crew | A | 10 | 1.1 | — |
| SEISA 2018 Fleet Champs | Skipper | B | 8 | 2.0 | 2.63 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Great Oaks Red | Crew | A | 10 | 4.1 | — |
| Great Oaks Gold | Crew | A | 6 | 6.8 | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Julius Heitkoetter |  Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
'25 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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